2016 NFL Week 17: Packers vs. Lions Preview and Prediction

Happy New Year, Packers fans and those who wish they were! (And, yes, even though the headline says 2016, hopefully you woke up realizing that we are now in the year 2017. Just for a point of reference for those of you who perhaps aren't quite sure right now.) Oh, and in case you were wondering, the Pack beat Minnesota last weekend to set up tonight's division battle. Now that we have that bit of housekeeping taken care of, let's move along, shall we?

The NFL schedule makers really pulled one out of their ying-yangs when they set the final weekend schedule with the Green Bay Packers facing the Detroit Lions, didn't they? Yes, division games have been going on for the last few weeks, but they could have scheduled the lemming-like Minnesota ViQueens or that semi-pro team from Illinois. Instead, the league rolled the dice and set a match between the Pack and the Lions.

Packers and Lions head coaches, Mike McCarthy and Jim Caldwell,
prepare to dance, at least metaphorically, tonight.
Photo by Rick Wood, Milwaukee Journal Sentinel
A Refresher of Sorts
You'll remember at the start of the season that the Packers were one of the odds-on favorites to go to and, in some quarters, win the Super Bowl. They were favored in virtually every game of the season...before the season began, that is. Detroit was projected to be a playoff team by some, perhaps even a division championship contender and maybe even a Super Bowl contender (a stretch, c'mon). But then teams have to play. The Packers, due to a rash of injuries at key positions, the inability of the offense to find an identity by mid-season and that of the defense to stop big plays particularly late in games, found themselves sitting at 4-6 at their low point after four consecutive losses.

As for the Lions, they were one of the early surprises of the season. Behind in seemingly most of their games, they somehow managed eight fourth-quarter comebacks in their nine wins, an NFL record. With the Pack stuck in the mud, the 'Queens fading after key injuries of their own and Da Bearz still sucking as usual, Detroit jumped out to a two-game division lead for a few games. But coupled with their own two-game road losing streak in Weeks 15 and 16 along with the Packers' resurrection and five-game winning streak down the stretch, the Lions now find themselves tied at 9-6 with the Pack going into this final regular season game...although technically, the Packers have the tie-breaker at this point because of their 34-27 September win at Lambeau Field.

Tonight's Game
Contrary to what some surmise, this is not a "winner-take-all" game, although the build-up to it certainly makes one view it that way. And, perhaps, that's the way the teams and fans should look at it. Winning, for either the Packers or Lions (eeeeewwwww!) gives that team the NFC North Division Championship and a guaranteed home playoff game. But even with a loss, it's possible that that team could still grab a wildcard spot depending upon whether Washington wins or loses today. With a Washington loss, both the Packers and Lions can grab a spot in the playoffs regardless of whether they win or lose. But a win is just so much better, don't you think? Especially if it is the sixth win in a row, led by an offense that is really clicking and a defense that, while suspect, can do just enough to keep an opponent from outscoring the offense. We are, of course, talking about the Packers taking this game for the NFC North Division Championship.

The Packers have gotten healthier over the last several games, especially QB Aaron Rodgers, TE Jared Cook and LB Clay Matthews. Yay. WR Randall Cobb is expected to be in uniform tonight but he may not play much or at all as he's still nursing his injury from a few weeks ago. If the Packers do make a playoff run, a healthy Cobb would be an asset. In his stead, the receiving corp may see more play from rookie Geronimo Allison, who is a big target and caught several passes in last week's win against the ViQueens. It appears as if he and Rodgers are starting build a chemistry and that bodes well short and long-term.

The biggest absence for the Packers this game, as it has been all season, is CB Sam Shields. The secondary has really not had anyone step up to come close to replacing him in terms of consistent pass coverage and closing speed ability. Plays have been made in the recent wins, particularly by Ha Ha Clinton-Dix. But neither of the second-year players, Damarious Randall or Quinten Rollins, has lived up to year-two expectations. Randall, by the way, is questionable for tonight's game. If there has been one constant in the secondary, and generally an overlooked one at that, it has been the play of LaDarius Gunter.

The question mark for the Packers tonight and into the playoffs is their secondary. They have made fourth quarters a Pepto Bismol time for Packer fans everywhere most of the season, playing soft and giving up big plays particularly over the middle. Lions QB Matthew Stafford, despite his recently dislocated middle finger on his passing hand, and the Lions generally proving to themselves and others that they can come from behind late to win games, can take this game down to the wire; he's done it before against the Packers and others.

If the Packers don't put up points early -- and throughout the game -- the defensive question mark as the game goes into the fourth quarter becomes more of a concern. You don't want to keep the Lions hanging around, as the saying goes. The Packers should be able to force Stafford into making at least one turnover somewhere during the game and that may be the difference. Getting a turnover or two in games has been key during the Packers' winning streak, and it may be so again tonight.

Conversely, Detroit can also put up points with Stafford and his receiving corp. The running game doesn't count for much at this point, but the Packers will need a consistent pass rush to pressure Stafford into a bad throw or two. If you give him time, he has the arm to make you pay for bad coverage or an ineffective pass rush. The Packers' front seven needs to really bring it tonight.

Defensively, however, the Lions should be able to be exploited by the Packers offense, particularly if Detroit's top defensive back, Darius Slay, is slowed by his hamstring injury. He'll probably try to go and, if so, look for the Packers to test his coverage ability early. Without Slay, Rodgers should be able to take advantage of that secondary. The Lions linebackers are nicked up, too, so that should open up the middle if the Pack decides to spread things around. Based upon recent history, that's a reasonable expectation today.

Also look for RBs Ty Montgomery and Christine Michael to keep the Lions off balance with a solid rushing game. During the Packers stretch run, the balance between the number of rushing plays and pass plays called by McCarthy has been part of the formula. On a fast track of indoor turf, it would be great to see what Christine Michael might be able to do if he gets loose. We think even the Packers coaches are interested in seeing what might transpire in that regard.

The Prediction
We view this as a high-scoring game. The Packers are favored by 3 points at the time of this writing. We see the Pack going up in the first half and then holding on in the fourth quarter for the win. These are the recent trends for both teams. We'll go with that.

We're calling it 38-34 Packers.

Go Pack Go!!!

Packers come up bigger than Giants

OK, I know. That headline was a bit cheesy. Ooops! There's another pun. Get it?

Sorry.

It's about all that can be mustered in light of the Packers 23-16 win over the New York Giants Sunday night at Lambeau Field. What started out in a very promising way -- offensive rhythm, running game, defensive toughness -- wound up being a rather ho-hum victory. I know, I know. No victory in the NFL is either easy or mundane. It's just that many Packer fans, including yours truly, are waiting to see a complete game from this team on both sides of the ball. We do see a dominant defense, no denying that, at this early stage of the season. With the return this week of defensive lineman Mike Pennel from his four-game suspension, the front line of that defense will get even tougher for opposing teams. Gotta like that.

Second-year CB LaDarius Gunter celebrates
after breaking up a pass intended for Giants receiver Victor Cruz.
Photo by Dan Powers/USA TODAY NETWORK-Wis
The other part of the defense on display was the depth in the secondary. Despite missing their two starting cornerback, the Packers young D-backs prevented the potentially high-flying Giants passing game from making big plays, let alone breaking big plays. Their only touchdown catch of the night came in the waning moments of the game which, admittedly, did tighten things up for a bit. Not only on the scoreboard but in Packer fans' stomachs, as well.

Offense had its moments, just not enough of them
Things were tighter than they needed to be throughout the game and down the stretch because the Packers just couldn't seem to get unstuck, on offense or special teams. Offensively, the game could have nearly been put away early except for an illegal shift call on WR Davante Adams that negated a great throw by Aaron Rodgers and catch by Randall Cobb resulting in a touchdown that would have put the Pack up by 14-0 late in the first quarter. (Whew! Long sentence. Sorry about that.) Instead, an interception followed and led to the Giants putting a drive together and getting on the board with a field goal to make it 7-3 early in the second quarter.

While the Packers seemed to dominate the game, especially in the first half in terms of time of possession, and through the powerful running game of Eddie Lacy, there were just enough misfirings by Rodgers, drops by his receivers, and penalties to always seem to keep the Giants in striking distance. Add to this that the new Packers punter averaged under 36.5 yards per punt for the game with a long of just 42 yards. The result was generally always good starting position for the Giants, often past their own 40. Special teams coverage by the Packers also didn't help; there were a number of broken tackles by Giants returners which added to their field position advantage.

Be all that as it may, the Pack came away with the win they needed. With Minnesota atop the NFC North -- and the only still undefeated team in the NFL -- the Packers can't afford to drop behind by losing games they should win.

Which brings us to Sunday's game at Lambeau versus the Cowboys. Is that a game the Pack should win? Needs to win? (OK, dumb question that. Never mind.)

The 'boys are playing well behind their rookie quarterback and running back. We'll look at this game as we get closer to game time. Please keep checking back. We appreciate it.

Packers beat Saints in final 2015 preseason game, 38-10

After a slow start to a game once again, down by 10 points early, the Green Bay Packers' second, third and etcetera-string players rallied to score 38 unanswered points and beat the visiting New Orleans Saints by a final tally of 38-10 in the last preseason game of the 2015 NFL season. Yay.

Even more "yay" that it seems as if for at least last night the Pack escaped without another injury to a key player. Perhaps that was because few key players actually saw any action. QB Aaron Rodgers was once again in sweats along the sideline, as was his entire starting offensive line...well, maybe not all in sweats but along the sideline. You get the point. The Pack's top two running backs, Eddie Lacey and James Starks, were also not exposed to possible injury before the first game. FB John Kuhn, DE Mike Daniels and OLB Mike Neal were actually and factually the only regular starters seeing action. So it went. The night, instead, was given over to the backups. Many young men were playing if not for their football careers at least for their place on the final 53-man roster or, perhaps, the practice squad or a team elsewhere.

Packers rookie QB Brett Hundley continues to impress during last night's game against the Saints.
Photo by Mark Hoffman, Milwaukee Journal Sentinel
Hundley impresses again
One of the clear standouts in last night's action was rookie QB Brett Hundley. While Scott Tolzein is Rodgers' primary backup, the performance of Hundley in these preseason games confirm what the Packers braintrust knew about him in the draft. That's why they traded up in the fifth round to get him, amazed that he was still there. Head coach Mike McCarthy said, "We knew when we drafted him there was a lot there to work with. He has a lot to learn, but it's been exciting watching him get off to a good start." You bet. He had a passer rating of 142.4 against the Saints, pushing his four-game mark to 129.7 which, by the way, is one of the best in Packers' history. The young man looked very poised, in control, and -- dare we say -- Rodgers-esque at times in his movement within the pocket and his scrambling ability.

Other positives

• WR Jeff Janis continuing to progress and perhaps develop (quickly, we hope) into a serious downfield threat that can somewhat mitigate the loss of Jordy Nelson for the season.
• WR Myles White making a strong case to be part of the receiving corps again.
• RBs Rajion Neal and John Crockett having strong performances once again...although Crockett may be a casualty of too many good backs ahead of him when cut-down time comes.
• Solid play from the backup offensive linemen.
• A much-needed good punting performance by veteran Tim Masthay.
• Another good outing by undrafted DB LaDarius Gunter, making a strong case to be on the opening day roster.
• Finally getting to see former Wisconsin Badger Jared Abbrederis take the field in the game both as punt returner and wide receiver. He only had once catch, but averaged more than 11 yards per return on punts...with -- oh-oh -- a fumble (recovered by the Packers). Coach McCarthy likes him, but he's more likely a candidate for the practice squad than the 53-man roster just because he's missed so much training camp with the concussion sustained in the first practice of camp. Let's also remember he missed all of his rookie season with an ACL injury sustained during last year's camp. He could bring a lot to the table, but he's got to stay healthy enough to actually be on the field. (Can you tell I'm rooting for him?).

Note that I haven't said much about the defensive line or the linebacking corps. That's because we really haven't seen much of the starting defense. With all the players that the Packers are trying to look at, it's a bit of a crap shoot on that front right now. But it will get sorted out in short order, that's for sure. The season opener against Da Bearz in Chicago is only about 9 days away. The Pack will be ready. Oh yeah.

Keep checking back for details on our Packers house flag giveaway contest!
Within the next few days we'll post the details for our first-ever Packers flag giveaway contest. So keep checking back or follow us on Twitter @packfansunited.

The flag's a beauty, as you can see in this image.

The contest will be run in conjunction with CollinsFlags.com.

So...stay tuned! In the meantime...Go Pack Go!!

Insights from Preseason Game #1: Packers vs Patriots

Now that the dust has settled a bit from Thursday evening's first Packers preseason game against the New England Deflators, er, sorry...Patriots (a-hem)...what did we see?

A few observations of note...or not...you decide:

• Undrafted DB LaDarius Gunter displayed the kind of performance we heard about early in training camp: he seems to make plays...of the interception kind, to be exact. Supposedly not a speedster, but rather with long arms, Gunter may be the next Sam Shields and go from an undrafted unknown to grabbing a spot on the final roster. There's a long way to go yet, but the young man shows promise.

Rookie CB LaDarius Gunter grabs an INT vs. the Pats.
Photo by Associated Press
• Another undrafted free agent rookie, RB Alonzo Harris, went from a "Who?" type player to a "Who the heck is that?!" type player, as he carried seven times for 41 yards, including a great 25-yard touchdown run. With Eddie Lacy and James Starks ensconced as the number one and two running backs respectively, Harris is likely in a battle with Rajion Neal and rookie UDFA John Crockett for the number three spot.
• The number one offense moved the ball up and down the field seemingly at will...except for that troublesome redzone area...reminiscent of last season. They have to get that sorted out.
• The linebacking corps still needs work. With Clay Matthews on the sidelines, there often seemed to be a bit too much "give" in that area of the line up.
• In addition to LaDarius Gunter's performance, rookie CB Quinten Rollins makes us feel confident about the defensive backfield. There is a lot of young talent there...and the emphasis is on talent.
• We see why head coach Mike McCarthy has been raving (in a good way) all spring and summer about back up QB, Scott Tolzein. The former Badgers standout (Go Badgers!) put improved presence and performance on display in relief of Aaron Rodgers. He had a great fade route TD pass to Jeff Janis that the uninformed might have sworn was a Rodgers' pass to Jordy Nelson if you didn't pay attention to the jersey numbers. Great to see.

So, Packer fans, those are just a few observations from the game. Will be interested to see the progress from last week to this in the upcoming game versus the Steelers in Pittsburgh on Sunday. Who'll get playing time and who won't? Who will see more opportunities and who will see fewer? It's a fun time of the year for fans...probably not so much for players trying to make an already deep squad primed for another Super Bowl run.

Go Pack Go!!!