Sunday, September 15, 2024

2024 NFL Week 2: Packers vs Colts Preview & Prediction

How are we feeling today, Packers fans? If you're like yours truly, probably still disappointed in the performance vs. the Eagles in Brazil. But even more so in the injury — with 6 seconds left in the game — to starting QB Jordan Love. He's out for today's game and perhaps at least 1 or 2 more games. A grade 1 or 2 MCL sprain, we've been told. Could have been much worse, granted. But still, it does give an immediate hit to the Packers playoff chances let alone the team's Super Bowl chance if they can't somehow find a way to win 1 or 2 of these first 4 games while awaiting Love's return.

But you already know that.

So what happens today?

This was NOT how we wanted to see Game 1 of the 2024 NFL Season end: QB Jordan Love on the ground in pain from a knee injury with 6 seconds remaining on the game clock. The Packers will have to find other ways to win today vs. the Colts and for perhaps the next few weeks.

(Photo by Wagner Meier, Getty Images)

The Preview

Most previews of today's game are focused, rightly so, on what's missing: Jordan Love. That's a huge piece missing and completely changes Matt LaFleur's offense. New starting QB Malik Willis has very little practical NFL experience. Supposedly, he is very athletic, can do some damage with his legs probably more than his arm although the latter attribute is noted as being "lively" in scouting reports. OK. Fine. But the knock on him coming out of college (Auburn and Liberty universities) and into his brief time with the Titans is that he has difficulty "processing" the game. That's not great. Still, Packers GM Brian Gutekunst has stated that he saw progress in Willis' abilities over the last year or two. How that translates to running the Packers offense after only about 18 days in the system? We will find out today.

The game plan will obviously be slimmed down to what Willis was able to pick up during this very minimal time. LaFleur needs to give him plays that will have 1 or 2 progressions tops before either getting rid of the ball or running. We can expect the Colts defense to load up the box with 8 defenders knowing the Pack will be run-heavy in all likelihood. There may be throws to be made and Willis will have to make them, as well as use his legs when that opportunity presents itself. How well Willis has been able to establish any connections with the receivers through practice...who knows? Running backs Josh Jones and Emanuel Wilson will need to help out, and the O-line will have to play at a an extremely high level today, and without the penalties we saw in the opener (yeah, we're looking at you, Rasheed Walker).

Of course, the Packers defense will have to keep things close. They generated turnovers in the first game but the Packers were not able to take advantage of them beyond field goals. That was a big reason the team came up short against Philly. Special teams — particularly the new kicker — will need to make ALL his FG and PAT attempts; can't leave any points on the field as was the case last week...points that may have made the difference.

For a great overview of things to watch in today's game, check out this great article by Tom Silverstein in the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel.

The Predication

It's the Pack's home opener, so there will be a lot of energy in the stadium. There will also need to be a lot of energy on the part of the Packers once they take the field. It's gotta be all gas, no brake.

The Colts are favored by 3 points at the time of this writing.

Our heads tell us this game will go the Colts way for obvious reasons. But our last-second feeling is that LeFleur will figure out a way to have the team execute just enough to steal a game they probably shouldn't win.

We're calling it Packers 20 - Colts 17.

Go Pack Go!!!

Sunday, September 08, 2024

Packers vs Eagles Game Review & Season Prediction Adjustment

Dear Packer fans ...

We knew that the Week 1 Friday night game of the 2024 NFL season would likely be a toss-up, and it was really. The Eagles were favored by 3 and won by 5. We had predicted the Packers to win by a score of 27-24. Close, but not a win and not close enough.

The field was problematic for both teams, with a lot of slipping going on. The game itself was a sloppy performance overall by both teams, as well. But the Eagles did a better job of overcoming their problems on that front, with some assistance by the Packers. The Pack had way too many penalties (cue OL Rasheed Walker for more than his share!), too many missed tackles, an inability to score TDs in the redzone (after 2 early takeaways in these cases BTW, that could have likely put Philly away early), and a deja vu feel for the defense despite the change in defensive coordinator and scheme change from 3-4 to 4-3. Not being able to get a stop when needed ... where we have seen that before???

USATSI_24172889 (1)

Packers QB Jordan Love being assisted off the playing field in Brazil at the end of the game vs. the Eagles.

(Photo by Kirby Lee-Imagn Images)

But the big news coming out of the night, as the entire sports world now knows, was the knee injury QB Jordan Love sustained with about 6 seconds left in the game. Trying to keep a play alive as his protection broke down, Love was sandwiched between 2 Philly defenders and twisted both his left ankle and knee; he went down immediately in pain and after moments on the ground had to be assisted off the field.

Initially, the thought from the replay video was that it was his ankle. Turns out, not. Instead, we have now learned that Love likely sustained a MCL sprain of the grade 2 variety. Translation — still subject to revision after further testing — is that Love will likely be out at least 3 to 6 weeks according to current reports. On the one hand, we can be thankful that it wasn't an ACL tear which would have been season-ending. On the other hand, the Packers will now have to figure out a way to get through anywhere from the next 3 to 6 games without their hundreds-of-millions-of-dollars quarterback.

Oy.

Options? Not great.

What are the options? We refer you to an excellent overview in the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel on this topic. Right now, in summary, the Packers can either go with the recently-acquired Malik Willis, bring up 2nd-year backup Sean Clifford from the practice squad, or sign another QB and hope to get that person up to speed in time for the next game vs. the Colts on Sept. 15 and then ongoing until Love's return. Actually, Willis and Clifford would also need to gear up for a bit of an extended run, too.

Who are the opponents over the next 3 to 6 weeks? The next 3 weeks have the Colts coming to Lambeau Field, then at Tennessee, then back home against the ViQueens. Our initial season prediction — looking at these games plus the opener as the 1st quarter of the season — had the Pack going 3-1, although noting that they could also lose 2 of the first 4 games ... and that was with Love as QB. Without him? Hmmm. The Packers have already lost 1. Likely will lose at least 1 of the next 3 without the star QB at the helm. Perhaps two. Or all three. So from going 3-1 in this first stretch of games to going 0-4 becomes as likely a possibility as not. Not great.

Looking ahead to games 5 and 6, the Pack plays the Rams in LA and then the Cardinals back in Green Bay. Assuming Love can be back for 1 or both of these games, the Rams still remains a tough game. If Love is not yet back behind center? Advantage Rams, and the Cardinals game would probably be considered a toss-up.

Of course, all this also assumes the Packers defense remains as lackluster throughout these games as it played in the opener. That's a bit of an assumption given the caliber of the players on that unit and the reputation of Jeff Hadley as defensive coordinator. The expectation is that things will get straightened out and that could help cover up any offensive issues for a time...perhaps the D and special teams could even win a game or 2. That would be nice.

The bottom line is that things are very much up in the air. Not how the team or fans thought we would start this season out. But at least there is the likelihood that Love returns and can hopefully regain at some point the characteristics we saw on display in the second half of last season. Because, let's also be honest, he was not locked in that way in this opening game vs. Philly. He wasn't horrible, but wasn't as sharp as we would have hoped either.

Season Prediction Adjustment?

Our initial season prediction saw the Pack finishing at 11-6. That was with Love at QB for all 17 games. Now? Oy. I think at least 1 game has to switch from the win to the loss column during the next 3 weeks. And if Love is out 6 weeks? I think another win turns to a loss. So we could now, barring some miracle or series of miracles, see the Packers finishing at 9-8. That's definitely on the playoff bubble...not a place anyone expected to be given the team's consensus Super Bowl contender preseason status.

The road has become much more uncertain, Packer fans. Let's offer up some "thoughts and prayers" for our favorite QB, Jordan Love, for a fast and effective return. For not only his well-being, but for the team's season prognosis, as well.

Go Pack Go!!!

P.S. 

Can we also agree that the Packers should NEVER agree to play another international NFL game? Cases in point: the Packers played, and lost in London, and then-QB Aaron Rodgers broke his thumb; in the team's second international appearance, the Packers played, and lost in Brazil, and starting QB Jordan Love was injured at the end of the game and will be lost 3 to 6 weeks with a sprained MCL.

Let the NFL send its bottom-of-barrel teams out of country. Too much at stake for the top-level teams. Too much. If that sounds elitist, sorry. But there are differences and matters of degree across the franchises. We understand the international draw of the Packers as one of the top teams in the NFL, but the risk to the Packers — despite the dollar rewards to the NFL — is not worth it. (So ends the editorial portion of this post.)

Friday, September 06, 2024

2024 NFL Season Week 1: Packers vs Eagles

We hope you've had a chance to check out our Season Prediction, Packer fans, for an overview of how we are looking at the season and how we believe it will play out given the schedule.

But it all starts, of course, with Game #1: the Pack vs. the Eagles down in good ol' Brazil. Crikey! There's been a lot of buildup going into this game, of course, with 2 of the top contenders in the NFC going head to head in the first-ever NFL game held in South America. While it's not a mandatory win for either, whichever team does come out on top may well have an important tie-breaker at the end of the season if playoff seeding is in play.

Kenny Clark, defensive tackle

The Packers need to have a big game tonight from Kenny Clark and the entire defensive unit to shut down Eagles QB Jalen Hurts et al.

(Photo by Tork Mason/USA TODAY NETWORK-Wisconsin)

Two top offenses. Which is the better defense?

There probably doesn't need to be a lot of discussion of offenses at this point. Both teams think they know what they have with two top quarterbacks. There are also two top running backs: the Packers, as we know, let Aaron Jones go (to the ViQueens...ewww) and picked up a younger and accomplished back in Josh Jones. Didn't see him really in the preseason outside of the first carry in the first preseason game and a pass reception in the flat ... so hard to know how he and the O-line have synced up. We'll find out. The question is who might his back up be tonight and going forward as injuries in the backfield make that a bit of a toss-up at the moment. And, as we also know, RB A.J. Dillon was placed on the season-ending (and perhaps Packers-career-ending) injured reserved list after a lackluster preseason. So...a question there.

No question for the Packers regarding their receivers, though. If the line can give Love time (which we expect against an Eagles defense that has some questions surrounding it), we see Love having a big night in the air. Especially if Jacobs can do enough to keep the Eagles D a bit unsure of what the Packers will do.

Conversely, the Eagles offense is also high powered with a QB of the type that has always seemed to give the Packers fits. Someone who can run and throw: Jalen Hurts. The Packers defensive front has to keep him in check. But even if they do, let's remember that the Eagles acquired RB Saquon Barkley in the offseason. Oy. The Pack's new defensive coordinator, Jeff Hafley, has a load of talent to work with on that side of the ball and will need to scheme the line and coverages in ways that minimize the chances for getting picked apart in the running and passing games. As it's the first game of the season AND the very first under this new 4-3 defensive scheme the Pack will be running, one might expect a lot of adjustments throughout the game.

If it comes down to the kicking game? Oh boy. We Packer fans will be getting our very first look at our new kicker, Brayden Narveson, claimed after the Titans waived him following the preseason. Strong leg, we hear. We've heard that before. We need an accurate leg. Supposedly, Narveson has performed well in his young — and non-NFL — career. If you're one who believes in the power of prayer...start now.

The Prediction

The Eagles are currently favored by 3 points over the Pack. We've seen the over-under at 48-1/2 points. We see it as basically a toss-up game. One team could blow the other team out. Or not. We think the point differential is about right. But we see the Packers picking up where they left off at the end of the last regular season and the Eagles doing the same (a 1-6 finish after a strong start). Bottom line: Packers win.

We're call this game Packers 27- Eagles 24.

Go Pack Go!!!

With the 2024 Packers season upon us ... Here's our season prediction (our 20th!!!)

Hello again, Packers fans ... and all who wish they were.

We've had a looooong hiatus here at PackerFansUnited...since just before the Divisional game vs. San Fran, to be exact. Been engaged with much movement in life during this time, including literally moving on to a new home a couple of states away. So I have plenty of excuses. There's been a lot of water under the bridge since then: player and coaches comings and goings, injury updates, cut-downs, final roster, etc. Too much to cover here and you know it all already anyway.

So let's just get to the important matters of the moment: the season prediction, just as we've done every year. We'll do the prediction for tonight's opener against the Eagles (in Brazil!!!) in a separate post. We invite you to please check back for that before gametime later today.

The Season Prediction

Since the start of this blog in 2005 (20 years ago now ... 20!), we have looked at the season preview not game by game (those are done individually at the relevant time) but more along the lines of a quarter by season quarter point of view and the overall feel of it, so to speak. With a 17th regular season game in place for the last few years, we'll have 4 quarters plus one extra game...and the bye week, too...resulting in 18 weeks to examine. You'll figure it out. Home games are in green. Be aware, of course, that the NFL may flex various game times, especially later in the season, so the days/times shown here are as they are now indicated on the official schedule. The final home game vs. Chicago is, however, already listed as TBD game in terms of date and time.


Jordan Love, quarterback

QB Jordan Love will lead the Packers 

in the first game of the 2024 season.

(Photo by Scott Galvin-USA TODAY Sports)




1st Quarter of the Season

Week 1: @ Eagles - Fri 9/6 · 7:15 PM CDT

Week 2: Colts - Sun 9/15 · 12:00 PM CDT

Week 3: @ Titans - Sun 9/22 · 12:00 PM CDT

Week 4: Vikings - Sun 9/29 · 12:00 PM CDT

We think it's likely the Packers lose one, and perhaps two, of these first four games. The season opener on Sept. 6 in Brazil...more on that one in a separate post. But it sure adds a big unknown to literally kick off the season. Despite the Pack being once again one of the odds-on favorites to make the NFC Championship Game, and, Packer nation hopes, the Super Bowl, and having a talented roster on both sides of the ball, we really don't know how it's all going to come together, especially with a new defensive coordinator and a new featured running back in Josh Jacobs. The O-line and wide receiving corps are solid. When there isn't a clear #1 receiver, that tells you that there are a lot of weapons that can shred a defense; give QB Jordan Love the time and they can shred the defense. We see the Packers coming out of these four games with a strong start and a 3-1 record.

2nd Quarter of the Season  (+1)

Week 5: @ Rams - Fri 10/6 · 3:25 PM CDT

Week 6: Cardinals - Sun 10/13 · 12:00 PM CDT

Week 7: Texans - Sun 10/20 · 12:00 PM CDT

Week 8: @ Jaguars - Sun 10/27 · 12:00 PM CDT

Week 9: Lions - Sun 11/3 · 12:00 PM CST

Week 10: BYE

Coming off a home game against the ViQueens, hitting the road to take on the Rams in LA is a tough one. Also, in looking at the other teams in this quarter, the Texans are the team to worry about. Still, we think the Packers should come out of these four games with a 3-2 record.

3rd Quarter of the Season

Week 11: @ Da Bears - Sun 11/17 · 12:00 PM CST

Week 12: 49ers - Sun 11/24 · 3:25 PM CST

Week 13: Dolphins - Thurs (Thanksgiving) 11/28 · 7:20 PM CST

Week 14: @ Lions - Thurs 12/5 · 7:15 PM CST

This begins a tough little stretch, Packer fans, despite the Bye Week coming at a pretty good time in the schedule just ahead of this gauntlet of games. It will be the first chance to see the Caleb Williams-led Bearz. He'll either be living up to the hype at this point of the season. Or not. There will certainly be enough game film of him by that meeting to allow the Pack to scheme their defense accordingly. Then the kryptonite comes to Lambeau: the Niners. If the Packers want to get to the next level this season, they have to beat San Fran on home turf. Dolphins and Lions back to back...oy. We can see the Pack going 2-2 in this stretch.

4th Quarter of the Season

Week 15: @ Seahawks - Sun 12/15 · 7:20 PM CST

Week 16: Saints - Mon 12/23 · 7:15 PM CST

Week 17: @ Vikings - Sun 12/29 · 12:00 PM CST

Week 18: Da Bears - TBD

If the Pack is healthy (let us pray...), here's where the stretch run to the playoffs and Super Bowl gains steam. Given the opponents and being able to finish at home, we see the Packers going 3-1 over this span of games.

Summary


Looking back at our predictions, we have the Packers going no worse than 11-6. (Many projections we've seen have the Pack going 10-7, 11-6, or 12-5.) It will likely come down to the Pack and the Lions for the NFC North Division title. We'll worry about the playoff scenarios much, much later on. Lot of ball game left, as the saying goes.


As always, GO PACK GO!!!

Friday, January 19, 2024

2023 Season Divisional Round Playoff Game: Packers vs. 49ers Preview & Prediction

While all the attention is rightly on Saturday evening's NFC Divisional Playoff game between the Green Bay Packers and the San Francisco 49ers, we have to take a moment to acknowledge what is — factually — the biggest upset in NFL history: the 7th seed Packers beating the 2nd seed Dallas Cowboys last Sunday. Not just beating the 'boys, but smokin' them. 27-0 in the 1st half. A final score of 48-32 with Dallas' final two scores coming in garbage time. Never before had a 7th seed won a playoff game. Well done Jordan Love, Aaron Jones, Matt LaFleur, Joe Barry (?) and everyone in the Packers organization. Wow. Just wow.

Now, let's get to the game in Santa Clara, shall we?

If Packers QB Jordan Love continues his lights-out performance
Saturday evening, the Packers have a chance to pull off another
upset win and find themselves in the NFC Championship game.
(Photo via the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel)


The Preview

As it turns out, with this game, the Packers and Niners will now have faced each other 10 times in the playoffs, more than any other pair of teams in the NFL. Amazing. Of the prior 9, San Fran has a 5-4 edge, with the Packers having lost four straight. Meh. Time to change the script, right, Packers fans?

There is admittedly a degree of difference in the overall team talent level at present between these two teams. Yet, all the young Packers don't seem to care about that. If they did, they would have likely lost in Dallas last weekend. All this Green Bay team knows how to do at this point is to play hard and to play for each other. It doesn't matter who gets the ball, who has to block, who has to tackle or cover. And head coach Matt LaFleur's wide-open play-calling has launched a first-year starting quarterback (i.e., Jordan Love) into the stratosphere of quarterbacking, and has solidified his status as "The Guy" not just this year but going forward. And not just going forward but, to the horror of Bears' fans and others, perhaps for the next decade or more. (On a related note, and particularly for my great friend Billy Da Bears Fan, Jordan Love has thrown for more than 4,000 yards in his first year as the starter; in the entire history of the Chicago Bears they have never had a single QB throw for more than 4,000 yards. Just in case you want to know.)

The Niners are solid on offense and defense, hence their number 1 seed and the reason they are currently favored to win by a wide margin. And, if the Packers do not match San Fran's physicality, they won't be in the game. The game will ultimately be determined, as has so much of the Pack's season, by the defense. If they show up — as they have for the last month or so — they can stay in the game. If they can create a turnover or two, they can help win the game. That's no throw-away comment: when the Niners have no turnovers, they were 8-0 this season; when they had one or more turnovers, they were 4-5 this season. If the Packers want to increase their chances for a win, they need to get to QB Brock Purdy and help create a turnover or two. Do that, and the odds of a win go up; don't get near him and ... well, it makes things more difficult.

The Niners defense also presents its challenges, as all football fans know. The O-line will really need one of its best games of the season to protect Jordan Love as well as to make an opening now and then for RB Aaron Jones. As all Packers fans know, the return of Jones and his 100+ yards rushing per game over the last three games has been a key to the Pack's win streak. Getting 100 yards rushing in this game will be a challenge. But if Jones can get 100+ yards combed rushing and receiving, that would be a significant boost to the Pack's chances.

Which Packers receiver will get 100+ yards receiving? Who knows. Over the span of the past three games, three different receivers have accomplished that feat. The Packers have a lot of weapons for the Niners to worry about. If the play-calling and scheming are in sync, the Pack can keep San Francisco if not exactly on their heels at least giving them a pause now and then ... which might be just enough.

Now, another factor to consider in this game is the weather. Yes, yes, we're not talking cold and snow; the game is in the Bay area (as the San Fran locals say) not the Green Bay area. That means, this time of year, rain. There is an 80 percent chance of rain throughout the day and into the evening, although it seems from the various forecasts that the heaviest rain will take place Friday evening and Saturday morning. Then, it's hit and miss. But at least one local forecaster is advising those attending the game to bring some rain gear, just in case. Winds of 10 to 15 mph at game time are expected, but again, a bit of a moving target forecast-wise. Not horrible winds if that's indeed the case, at least in dry conditions.

As former Carolina Panthers (and Wisconsin Badgers) punter, Brad Nortman, said on his radio show Friday, these wet conditions actually will act as a bit of an equalizer for the Packers. It tends, in his experience, to help the defense as offensive skill players — running backs, returners and receivers — need to think a bit more about whether or not they can make a particular cut, for example. The QB needs to think about whether he can make a certain throw (btw, QB trivia: Jordan Love's hands are larger than Brock Purdy's making for a better grip on the ball). And place kickers need to be sure of their plant when making kick attempts. The argument could be made that the Packers are probably more used to playing in adverse weather conditions than are the Niners. Who knows? All we do know is that the wet field, rain and wind conditions will likely play a role in the game. To which team's advantage, and to what degree, we will have to wait to see.

We also can't forget the referees in this game, especially given how poorly the NFL refs performed overall this season in getting calls right...which includes not making calls when none were needed. Unfortunately, the crew referring this game will be that of referee Alex Kemp, whose regular-season crew led the NFL with an average of 15.3 flags per game. And guess what? Both the Pack and Niners finished in the top third of the NFL for most flags this season. What are the odds that some bad and game-changing calls will be made? Oy. But both teams will have to play with this crew calling the shots. Let us pray.

The Prediction

Depending upon who you are looking at, the Niners are favored by 9-1/2 to 10 points over the Pack at the time of this posting. The Packers are used to being the underdog most of this season, and certainly in the playoffs. In other words, we've got 'em just where we want them.

There are so many story lines at play in this game, as there were against the Cowboys. The weather and the referees are outside factors that will affect both teams in various ways. If the Packers play at the same level they have over the last month-plus, they can stay in the game and win. Against any team. If they don't get off to a fast start and get beat physically, they will have a hard time pulling out the win.

We are of the view (gold 'n' green-colored, of course) that the Packers will keep things rolling. San Fran has been sitting and didn't look exceptional in their last few games. Of the two, the Packers are the hot team. And you gotta go with who's hot.

We're calling it Packers 31 - 49ers 30.

Go Pack Go!!!




Saturday, January 13, 2024

2023 NFL Season Recap & Wildcard Game: Packers vs. Cowboys Preview & Prediction

Who'da thunk it, Packer fans? The youngest team in the NFL this season, with a first-year starting QB by the name of Jordan Love and loads of first and second-year players, made NFL history by becoming the youngest team ever to make the playoffs. And how was it done? By turning their season around at mid-season and going 6-2 in the final eight weeks of the season to finish at 9-8 and gain the seventh playoff spot. And, lest we forget, finishing things off in fitting fashion last weekend by beating Da Chicago Bearz at Lambeau Field in the final game of the regular season. Sweet.

By way of a very quick recap, if you go back to our preseason preview in September, we had the Pack finishing at 10-7 ... so close. Especially when few were projecting the team to win more than 6 or 7 games in this changeover season. Given the Packers could have / should have beaten at least one or more of the Falcons, the Raiders, the Broncos, or the Steelers, our prediction can be said to be ... not too bad.

Anyway, with all that said, let's take a sneak peek at the Wildcard game vs. the Cowboys down in Jerry World, shall we?

Packers QB Jordan Love has put together remarkable
and historic performances over the second half of the 2023
season. Fans are hoping that trend continues in his Wildcard 
playoff game against the Dallas Cowboys Sunday.
(Photo by Mark Hoffman/Milwaukee Journal Sentinel)


The Preview

The Packers come into this game riding high. Too young, some say, to know they aren't supposed to win this game against the highly favored Dallas Cowboys. They did what they had to do in the second half of the season to turn things around and give themselves a chance at making the playoffs.

This required epic performances from their first-year starting QB, Jordan Love (including back to back weeks as NFC Offensive Player of the Week, something neither Brett Farve or Aaron Rodgers did in their careers), solidifying the play of the offensive line, getting the young first and second-year receivers in sync with their quarterback, having RB Aaron Jones get healthy at the right time, and getting at least occasional "This is how you should be playing every game" performances from the Joe Barry-led defense, which was also missing the highest-paid cornerback in the NFL for a good chunk of the season (and who also might not be able to play in this game because of an ankle, not shoulder, injury).

It really is remarkable. And regardless of how the game turns out, this is already a successful season, Packer fans. One that sets things up very well for the future.

With Aaron Jones in the backfield to take some of the pressure off Love, with the O-line protecting against very good defenses, and the receivers and tight ends running great routes, making contested catches, and gaining valuable yards after the catch, the Packers can score points. Which is something we said last week, too, that actually didn't play out in the final score, although to be fair the Pack left at least 6 points on the field with a missed field goal (a growing concern with K Anders Carlson) and running out of time at the end of the first half without even having a field goal attempt ... plus there were those two touchdown-catch drops that would have put points up, as well. The offense will need to be near-perfect against the Cowboys to stay in the game and win.

That's because the Cowboys come into this game undefeated at home this season and putting up something like 37 points on average per game in their home wins. Yowzers.

The Dallas defense is one of the best in the league. So a creative offensive game plan, perfect execution, no turnovers, and scoring touchdowns instead of field goals (or having missed ones) in the red zone will be essential to a Packers win. Simple. No? One indication of how Green Bay will be feeling is if they take the ball if they win the coin toss. We're saying if that happens, the Pack will go on offense first. They'll want to get out front if at all possible.

The big question — as it has been most of the season — has been which Green Bay defense will show up? Is it the one that made Steelers QB Tommy Devito and Buccaneers QB Baker Mayfield look like All-World players with zone coverages where no one was even in the same area code as the receivers? Or will it be the one that helped win against the Lions and the Chiefs and also held even Da Bearz to only field goals? We don't know. But it seems that after the embarrassment of the game against Tampa Bay, when head coach Matt LaFleur indicated he was taking on more of a role with the defense, there has been a change from zone coverages to more man, as well as more blitzing ... and that has made a difference. A huge difference.

The Packers defense and their veteran front and linebackers, along with over-achieving players in the secondary, will need to contain Cowboys QB Dak Prescott, WR CeeDee Lamb and their other weapons to keep the Pack close.

The Prediction

Not many are giving the Packers much of a chance in this game. The oddsmakers, at the time of this writing, have the Cowboys favored by 7 points over the Packers. That's a pretty big spread.

We haven't even gotten into the various storyline aspects of this game including the big one: Cowboys head coach Mike McCarthy coaching against his former team with, rumor has it, his job on the line if he loses. But that translates to this: the real pressure is on Dallas to win, not the Packers. The Pack, as some have said this week, are playing on "house money": they're there and shouldn't be so win or lose, it's OK. It's experience for a very young squad they can build on next season.

But, you know what? This season isn't done yet. The game is afoot, as Sherlock Holmes used to say.

Indeed.

We're riding the vibes with our heart and not our head and calling it Packers 24 - Cowboys 23.

Go Pack Go!!!

Sunday, January 07, 2024

2023 NFL Week 18: Regular Season Finale — Packers vs. Bears Preview & Prediction

Happy New Year, everyone!

Here it is Packers fans: the 2023 regular season finale against that team from south of the border. You know. Da Chicago Bearz. As you'll recall, the Pack started the season in Chicago and left with a win in QB Jordan Love's first start. Would be a nice way to bookend the regular season games with another win in Lambeau Field, wouldn't it? And, even better (well, really, is there anything better than beating Chicago?), a win gets the Packers into the playoffs as the number 7 wildcard.

Getting to the playoffs: what a great way to put a highlight on Love's first season as the starter, something neither Brett Favre or Aaron Rodgers was able to do, by the way, in their first seasons as the starter. They managed pretty well anyway overall, but wouldn't this just be the icing on the cake as the Pack seems to have found — again — their franchise quarterback going forward? Indeed. It's been 30 years of misery for NFC Central/North opponents with those 2 under center. May it continue thusly with Mr. Love.

Packers QB Jordan continued the ownership of Da Bearz in
his first meeting with them in the first game of the 2023 season in Chicago.
Fans hope to see that ownership continue in today's game at Lambeau Field.
(Photo via the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel)

Anyway, what does this game look like? Let's see ...

The Preview

Both the Packers and Da Bearz (the latter, believe it or not) come into this game on a bit of a roll. The Pack has certainly been a different team offensively the second half of the season as Love has taken command, complemented, as we know, by a group of gritty and talented first and second-year players at the skill positions. Plus a solid offensive line. It's been impressive. As for the Packers defense ... well, that's been hit and miss. When they miss, as in tackles or coverages, for example, it hasn't been good. Defeats snatched from the jaws of victory in some cases. On the other hand, when they play as they are capable of (as in last weekend's dominant victory against the ViQueens in Minnesota) they can hold their own against any team. Which will show up today?

LATE EDIT: The Packers will NOT have WR Christian Watson available; TE Luke Musgrave is, albeit limited given his recent injury status. There may in fact be 7 wideouts active today, not including the tight ends. (And, hey, what about recently-activated practice squad player WR Bo Melton setting a record in last week's game? Wow.) RB Aaron Jones will have to play a key role in keeping Chicago's top-rated run defense from shutting down that aspect of the game. Unfortunately, RB A. J. Dillon is not active today due to a stinger he sustained in the game against Minnesota so RB Emanuel Wilson was activated off the practice squad. He had actually been performing well before a shoulder injury sidelined him.

On defense, Jaire Alexander is coming off his 1-game suspension and, by all accounts, was perhaps a bit humbled by that experience. He may take out his angst on Chicago's top receiver, D. J. Moore. That would be perfectly appropriate. And helpful. LB De'Vondre Campbell will be active today and that should also help, as long as defensive coordinator Joe Barry doesn't ask him to cover receivers.

The main task for the Packers defense will be keeping Chicago QB Justin Fields from shredding them with his legs. He has admittedly been throwing better in recent games, but if the defense can make him hold the ball (statistically, he holds the ball longer than any other QB) and contain him, they could get sacks and, even better, generate some turnovers. But they better keep Fields from running free or they will be in trouble and the game will be closer than it should otherwise be.

We're not concerned about the Packers offense given what they have demonstrated lately. Love was named the NFC Offensive Player of the Week for his game against the Vikes. He has arrived, arguably, as a legitimate top 5 QB at this point. Not bad for his first season as the starter.

Granted, Chicago's defense is actually playing as well or better than any defense in the league lately, not only against the run but in terms of interceptions. They have been a take-away factory. Now, supposedly their top d-back is out today (remains to be seen) which will help. But with the plethora of weapons the Packers have on offense, and if the O-line can hold up against a good defensive front and create a running lane once in a while, Green Bay should put up points.

The question, as unfortunately we have asked every game this season, is what the defense and special teams will do. Which D will show up today? Will they cover? Will they tackle? Will they keep Fields in check? Will special teams minimize breakdowns and will K Anders Carlson be perfect in his PATs during this game (he has missed 5 this season...not good).

The Prediction

The oddsmakers have the Packers favored by 3 points, the home field advantage. Some are surprised it's not more than that. But, OK, it's seen going in as a close game with the Packers sitting at 8-8 and Da Bearz at 7-9. Got it.

The Packers are playing for the playoffs: win and they're in (but they can still get in, with help, even with a loss). Chicago is playing to be the spoiler, as Detroit was in the final game of last season. They are also playing, perhaps, for Fields' career in Chicago and the survivability of the coaching staff. They already have the number 1 pick in the upcoming NFL Draft, so not much too lose at least in terms of the franchise regardless of whether they win or lose today.

Normally at this time of year, we also start to factor in the weather and how it may impact the game. Here's the current forecast:

  • Expected Temperature: Low-30s
  • Showers: <10% chance of precipitation
  • Wind: 8 mph westerly
So, cold, yes, but snow or rain and winds should not be a factor.

Now, I did request predictions from some of our buddies about today. Gonzo (a loyal Packers fan and PackerFansUnited reader in AZ) says 27-24 Packers. Our token Bearz fans friends are split. Billy Da Bearz Fan says it will be Da Bearz on top 21-19. Stan the Realistic Bearz Fans says, while he hopes it would be 40-0 Bearz, he sees the game going in the Packers favor 28-24.

We're calling it Packers 31 - Bearz 24.

Go Pack Go!!!

Sunday, December 31, 2023

2023 NFL Week 17: Packers vs. Vikings Preview & Prediction

Happy (almost) New Year, Packer fans! And what will make it very happy is if the Packers get a win in Min! Gotta get this game against the ViQueens to keep slim playoff hopes alive.

What could go wrong? Well ... it begins with "d" and ends with "e". Specifically, defense, as in even more specifically, the Pack's defense. What a train wreck it has become especially over the last half of the season.

That has been particularly true when facing rookie and iffy quarterbacks, whom the Packers defense have made look like MVPs these last three weeks. The tales of woe in this regard are well known among Packer fans so no need to rehash here. Other than to say two players on defense that would be helpful in today's game against Minnesota's very good receivers — Jaire Alexander and Eric Stokes — will not be playing. Alexander because of his well-documented error in judgement at the time of the coin-toss against Carolina, resulting in his one-game suspension by Brian Gutekunst, and Stokes because of a hamstring injury which now sees him on the IR list, which has been the bane of the Packers existence this season across many players. Oy.

Yet again today, the Packers defense will face a rookie QB, Jaren Hall, who is very mobile. And you know how mobile QBs do against this Packers defense, right? Yeah: have career games. Let us pray ...

Anyway, let's just get on with the prediction, shall we? No preview needed. We have New Year's celebrations to get to (along with the game, of course!).

The Packers offense will need a big game from QB Jordan Love
today to overcome expected lapses by the Packers defense.
(Photo by Wm. Glasheen, USA TODAY NETWORK-WISCONSIN)


The Prediction

Minnesota is currently favored by 1 to 1-1/2 points depending upon what source you are looking at. So, basically, a pick 'em game.

Both the Packers and ViQueens come into this game at 7-8. The Packers offense, statistically, have scored more points over the course of the season than have the Vikes. But Minnesota's defense have given up 32 fewer points over the 15-game span than have the Packers. In fact, the Packers offense has only scored 2 points more than its defense has given up. That helps explain our meh record at this point in the season. To the Packers advantage, statistically, is that Minnesota has a 2-5 record at home and 5-3 on the road; the Pack is 3-5 away from home. So...hmm. What to make of that?

If the Packers defense can get back to its early season form, and create at least one turnover today, they should pull off a tight win. If it once again makes a MVP out of a rookie QB, and doesn't get lights-out play from the offense, playoff chances for the Pack will go from slim to none.

Still, we're going to wear the green 'n' gold glasses yet again. We're call this game Packers 27 - ViQueens 24.

GO PACK GO!!!