Sunday, October 06, 2024

2024 NFL Week 5: Packers vs Rams Preview & Prediction

Before we dive into a look at today's game vs. the Rams in LA, a word about out last week's loss at Lambeau to the ViQueens. That word is: oy. To expound: a horrible first half of football — down 28-0 at one point! — followed by a great second half-plus in which the Packers outscored Minnesota 29-3. That last "3", unfortunately, made the difference in the final score of 31-29. As we said, oy.

Now, it should also be noted that, while not placing the loss on the rookie kicker, Brayden Narveson did miss two first half field goals. Making just one would have made the difference between a win and a loss. Right now, Narvy has missed at least one field goal in each game, albeit one which was wiped off the board in the Tennessee game because of a Titans' penalty. And, also of note, each of his misses has been either off the right upright or wide right which indicates a mechanics issue more than anything else; hence, why the Packers are sticking with him. At least for now. They like his leg and his attitude. And, frankly, there just aren't that many good options out there right now in terms of replacing him. Not a great spot to be in unless the young man can make whatever mechanical corrections he needs to make. And fast.

But, as stated, it wasn't all on him. Not when you go down by four TDs in one half of play. The defense had no pass rush on MN QB Sam Darnold, who is having a career-resurrecting season so far. Give him time — as the Pack did last Sunday — and he will connect with his receivers. Advantage ViQueens. And, ultimately, despite Jordan Love finally warming up in the second half, there were just too many things wrong that led to too big of a hole to climb out of. Familiar things. Along with the missed kicks, there were far too many penalties once again. The lack of pressure on the opposing QB. You know the story by now.

What will be the story coming out of today's game in LA? Let's take a look at some possible story lines.

Packers RB Josh Jacobs should have a big game rushing against the LA Rams.

(Photo Milwaukee Journal Sentinel)


The Preview

Let's get the big news out of the way first: WR Romeo Doubs has been suspended by the Packers for today's game because of "conduct detrimental to the team", according to the official statement. He attended Wednesday's practice where the game plan for the upcoming game is presented to the team. Doubs was apparently unhappy with his role, perhaps not just for this game but because of how he has been used so far this season. He didn't attend Thursday's practice — team staff were sent to his home to check on him because he didn't even bother to notify the team he wasn't coming in — or Friday's. The Packers announced the suspension Saturday. So, with Christian Watson still out with his high ankle sprain, that leaves the wide receiving corps for today consisting of Jayden Reed, Dontayvion Wicks, Bo Melton and Malik Heath. They are certainly all capable of making big plays. Add in the tight ends and there will not be a noticeable drop off in production today despite Doubs' absence. Wish he was playing, but he's made his choice and the Packers made theirs. So it goes.

The rest of the look for today should play to the Packers advantage: the Pack is hitting LA at a time when the injury bug has really hit the Rams. The Packers should be able to get a good pass rush on QB Matthew Stafford if they decide to bring it...and they better because Stafford, given time in the pocket, can shred the defense like Darnold did last week. While we know that new defensive coordinator Jeff Hafley doesn't like to blitz out of his 4-3 scheme, he sure better make better uses of it than he did last week.

Offensively, the Packers should be able to take advantage of a beat up and bad Rams defense. RBs Josh Jacobs and Emanuel Wilson should find room to run and the receivers the Packers do have on the field should be able to find pass-catching lanes available. Let's leave it at that.

As for who is in and who is out for the Pack, according to packers.com: "The Packers have listed seven players as questionable for Sunday's game against the Los Angeles Rams. Those seven are cornerback Jaire Alexander (groin), linebacker Edgerrin Cooper (hip), guard/tackle Elgton Jenkins (knee), tackle/guard Jordan Morgan (shoulder), tight end Luke Musgrave (ankle), cornerback Carrington Valentine (ankle), and defensive lineman Jonathan Ford (ankle/injured reserve). Receiver Christian Watson (ankle) and receiver Romeo Doubs (personal) are doubtful after not practicing Thursday or Friday. Defensive lineman Devonte Wyatt (ankle) has been ruled out."

For the Rams, key players out for today are WR Cooper Kupp and DE Darrell Murchison. A few other key players, while not officially "questionable" on the injury report are listed as not practicing most recently. Will see how that goes.

The Prediction

A little factoid of history for you: the last time the Pack beat the Rams in Los Angeles was when Vince Lombardi was the head coach. Yowza! How can that be? Well, recall there was a long period of time when the Rams were headquartered in St. Louis. So there's that.

The Packers are favored by 3 points at the time of this writing with the over-under set at 49.

We think with Love having a full week of practice following shaking off some game-speed rust last weekend, that the Packers should bring a "W" back to Green Bay after the conclusion of today's game to go to 3-2 on the season.

We're calling it Packers 31 - Rams 24.

Go Pack Go!!!

Sunday, September 29, 2024

2024 NFL Week 4: Packers vs Vikings Preview & Prediction

To the surprise of many, including Packers fans, the Pack find themselves at 2-1 after 2 amazing wins at home and on the road with backup QB Malik Willis at the helm in place of the injured Jordan Love. They've done it with creative game-planning by head coach Matt LaFleur and staff, controlled and well-executed play by Willis and the offense, and — especially last weekend vs. the Titans — a defense that dominated.

That leaves us in a game today vs. the 3-0 ViQueens at Lambeau and a chance, with a win, to actually be atop the NFC North about a quarter of the way into season. Who would have imagined it when Love went down in the closing seconds of that game against the Eagles in Brazil? Even without Love, the Packers have demonstrated they can win in a number of ways. Rushing, through the air, getting takeaways and sacking the opposing QB. All of those qualities will need to once again be on display today.

Green Bay Packers tight end Tucker Kraft stiff-arms Minnesota Vikings cornerback Akayleb Evans last season.

Packers TE Tucker Kraft came up big against Minnesota last season and will need another big game today.

(Photo by Mark Hoffman/Milwaukee Journal Sentinel)

The Preview

On offense, Minnesota's QB, veteran Sam Darnold, is having a good season to date. Rookie QB J.J. McCarthy, was supposed to be the starter this season, but an injury put that plan hold. Enter Darnold who is seizing his opportunity to basically resurrect his career. It helps when you have a receiver such as Justin Jefferson and an RB such as long-time Packers fave Aaron Jones among your weapons. But isn't it amazing what a change of team scenery and system can do (witness Malik Willis here, as well)?

Add to this, a stout defense run by Minnesota defensive coordinator Brian Flores and the challenges for opposing teams are many.

But guess what? The Packers present a myriad of problems for their opponents, too, regardless of who is behind center we now know. Today, with Jordan Love expected to play for the first time since sustaining his MCL sprain in the opener, it's unknown how the injury will limit his mobility and affect the offensive scheme. Certainly Love will not be 100 percent. So what will that look like? We'll know in a few hours. Still, it is good to know that if he is ineffective or unable to complete the game that Willis can step in and the Packers will not have an automatic loss as a result.

The key to Love's effectiveness today, limited as it may be, will be the offensive line's ability to keep him clean in the pocket. And to do so without penalties which has been a real problem throughout the first 3 games. Lookin' at you, Rasheed Walker. A-hem.

The 'Queens will no doubt dial up blitzes early to test the protection and Love's mobility. That's where Packers TE Tucker Kraft played such a role last season in the game at Minnesota where he helped beat the blitzes both blocking and catching. Once again, LaFleur has had all week to game-plan for Love's abilities to beat the defense. This will really be a chess match on both sides of the ball.

Of course, the Aaron Jones vs. Josh Jacobs subscript will also be part of today's story. Nobody wanted to see Jones leave the Packers in the offseason. He's beloved in Packerland. But Jacobs has certainly stepped in admirably in terms of making up the running yards. (So has Emanuel Wilson, lest we forget, in relief.) Who will wind up making the difference in the game? Have to wait to see.

Defensively, the Packers will be challenged to cover WR Justin Jefferson and the other receivers without Jaire Alexander and Carrington Valentine in the defensive backfield who are both out for this game. Next man up, as the saying goes. The new 4-3 scheme seems to be starting to pay off with the ability to pressure the QB without constant blitzing. Darnold is not a scrambler so if the front can get to him that can create opportunities for takeaways downfield.

Another curious side note to this game is that it will be rookie kicker vs. rookie kicker. Minnesota has Will Reichard who is 5 for 5 on his FG attempts and 10 for 10 on his PATs. Packer fans know all too well that our rookie kicker, Brayden Narveson, seems so far to be missing one kick per game; the miss last week was wiped out by a penalty on the Titans. We should note, though, that all Reichard's field goals have been indoors at the 'Queens home stadium; today will be his first attempts outdoors, although the weather forecast this early in the season is certainly quite favorable from that standpoint. So if the game is tight and it comes down to a kick, who do you put your money on? Oy.

The Prediction

With about an hour to game time, the Packers are listed as 2-1/2 point favorites. Seems about right. We think it will be a tight game, as these games often are.

We're calling it Packers 24 - ViQueens 23.

Go Pack Go!!!

Saturday, September 21, 2024

2024 NFL Week 3: Packers vs Titans: Preview & Prediction

 A brief review of last week's win over the Colts: we picked the upset.

Moving on...

Just kidding. A bit more.

The big variable in last week's game, of course, was the big unknown: how young backup QB and relatively new Green Bay Packer Malik Willis would do starting in place of injured QB Jordan Love. We knew the game plan by head coach Matt LaFleur would be changed. Boy, was it. Basically, the game plan was run. And run. And run. And the Packers did. Successfully. And the few times they asked Willis to pass, they were successful, too. Yay. "Stealing" a win some would say. We may have put it that way, too, in our preview and prediction. Still, a win to put the Pack at 1-1 as they had to Tennessee to take on the Titans.

Now, let's look at that game.

The Preview

New starting RB Josh Jacobs had a big week against the Colts. The Packers will need another big week from him against the Titans to stay in — and win — the game.

(Photo by Ken Blaze-USA TODAY Sports)

While it was a certainty last week that QB Jordan Love was out for the game against the Colts, with three days of limited practice this week, Love's status will be determined about 90 minutes before game time, according to head coach Matt LaFleur. Still, like last week, the Packers have once again elevated backup QB Sean Clifford from the practice squad to the active roster for this game. That may very well be an indicator that Love will once again be unavailable for the game vs. the Titans. We'd bet on that too.

While Willis was an unknown for the Packers last week, he performed well. Better than expected for many fans, no doubt. But Willis is not an unknown for Tennessee, the team which drafted him several years ago and from which he was traded at the end of training camp. The Titans know his pros and cons and obviously decided to part ways with him. After one game with the Packers, we're glad with their decision.

But that raises the question: what kind of game plan will LaFleur devise against a team and defense that (1) knows the Packers will once again predominately run the ball and (2) knows Willis' tendencies? For example (and as was on display last week), a propensity to throw to the right. With limited opportunities to throw, those tendencies become amplified. And predictable to defend. If we know this, so does LaFleur. We would expect him to devise additional wrinkles to exploit the Titans' defense in ways that they don't expect.

One of those ways may be to indeed throw more controlled passes. And perhaps even a few of those will be downfield. We still haven't seen the emergence of WR Christian Watson this season and his ability to stretch the defense — at least as a threat if not a reality — could well factor into Sunday's game, as will the abilities of the other receivers and tight ends to make plays when their numbers are called.

Another big day for RB Josh Jacobs and the O-line is also needed. The Titans have a decent defensive front so running will be a challenge. But the same was said about the Eagles in the first game and the Packers were able to run well against them. The line knows, according to various interviews, that if Willis is the QB they will need to continue their strong run-blocking. They also know, and have said, that if Love is able to play that they will have to make sure he "stays clean", i.e., they can't let him get hit when he's in the pocket.

The Packers defense will need to generate takeaways against the Titans offense. As Milwaukee Journal Sentinel sport journalist Ryan Wood notes in his preview of the game: "Titans quarterback Will Levis is erratic, not a threat to make plays with his legs, and plays behind an offensive line that has allowed seven sacks in two games." If the Packers defensive front can generate pressure, that will make a huge difference in the game's outcome.

The Prediction

As was the case last week, the Packers are at the time of this writing 3-point underdogs against the Titans. And as was the case last week, we're going to pick the Packers. Shocker, we know. But whereas last weekend the pick was more heart than head, this weekend we think there's enough evidence on both sides to say the Pack will emerge with a win whether or not Love is able to play. In fact, we hope the Pack decides to rest Love another week for the division game back at Lambeau against the ViQueens.

We're taking the Packers 24 - Titans 20.

Go Pack Go!!!

Sunday, September 15, 2024

2024 NFL Week 2: Packers vs Colts Preview & Prediction

How are we feeling today, Packers fans? If you're like yours truly, probably still disappointed in the performance vs. the Eagles in Brazil. But even more so in the injury — with 6 seconds left in the game — to starting QB Jordan Love. He's out for today's game and perhaps at least 1 or 2 more games. A grade 1 or 2 MCL sprain, we've been told. Could have been much worse, granted. But still, it does give an immediate hit to the Packers playoff chances let alone the team's Super Bowl chance if they can't somehow find a way to win 1 or 2 of these first 4 games while awaiting Love's return.

But you already know that.

So what happens today?

This was NOT how we wanted to see Game 1 of the 2024 NFL Season end: QB Jordan Love on the ground in pain from a knee injury with 6 seconds remaining on the game clock. The Packers will have to find other ways to win today vs. the Colts and for perhaps the next few weeks.

(Photo by Wagner Meier, Getty Images)

The Preview

Most previews of today's game are focused, rightly so, on what's missing: Jordan Love. That's a huge piece missing and completely changes Matt LaFleur's offense. New starting QB Malik Willis has very little practical NFL experience. Supposedly, he is very athletic, can do some damage with his legs probably more than his arm although the latter attribute is noted as being "lively" in scouting reports. OK. Fine. But the knock on him coming out of college (Auburn and Liberty universities) and into his brief time with the Titans is that he has difficulty "processing" the game. That's not great. Still, Packers GM Brian Gutekunst has stated that he saw progress in Willis' abilities over the last year or two. How that translates to running the Packers offense after only about 18 days in the system? We will find out today.

The game plan will obviously be slimmed down to what Willis was able to pick up during this very minimal time. LaFleur needs to give him plays that will have 1 or 2 progressions tops before either getting rid of the ball or running. We can expect the Colts defense to load up the box with 8 defenders knowing the Pack will be run-heavy in all likelihood. There may be throws to be made and Willis will have to make them, as well as use his legs when that opportunity presents itself. How well Willis has been able to establish any connections with the receivers through practice...who knows? Running backs Josh Jones and Emanuel Wilson will need to help out, and the O-line will have to play at a an extremely high level today, and without the penalties we saw in the opener (yeah, we're looking at you, Rasheed Walker).

Of course, the Packers defense will have to keep things close. They generated turnovers in the first game but the Packers were not able to take advantage of them beyond field goals. That was a big reason the team came up short against Philly. Special teams — particularly the new kicker — will need to make ALL his FG and PAT attempts; can't leave any points on the field as was the case last week...points that may have made the difference.

For a great overview of things to watch in today's game, check out this great article by Tom Silverstein in the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel.

The Predication

It's the Pack's home opener, so there will be a lot of energy in the stadium. There will also need to be a lot of energy on the part of the Packers once they take the field. It's gotta be all gas, no brake.

The Colts are favored by 3 points at the time of this writing.

Our heads tell us this game will go the Colts way for obvious reasons. But our last-second feeling is that LeFleur will figure out a way to have the team execute just enough to steal a game they probably shouldn't win.

We're calling it Packers 20 - Colts 17.

Go Pack Go!!!

Sunday, September 08, 2024

Packers vs Eagles Game Review & Season Prediction Adjustment

Dear Packer fans ...

We knew that the Week 1 Friday night game of the 2024 NFL season would likely be a toss-up, and it was really. The Eagles were favored by 3 and won by 5. We had predicted the Packers to win by a score of 27-24. Close, but not a win and not close enough.

The field was problematic for both teams, with a lot of slipping going on. The game itself was a sloppy performance overall by both teams, as well. But the Eagles did a better job of overcoming their problems on that front, with some assistance by the Packers. The Pack had way too many penalties (cue OL Rasheed Walker for more than his share!), too many missed tackles, an inability to score TDs in the redzone (after 2 early takeaways in these cases BTW, that could have likely put Philly away early), and a deja vu feel for the defense despite the change in defensive coordinator and scheme change from 3-4 to 4-3. Not being able to get a stop when needed ... where we have seen that before???

USATSI_24172889 (1)

Packers QB Jordan Love being assisted off the playing field in Brazil at the end of the game vs. the Eagles.

(Photo by Kirby Lee-Imagn Images)

But the big news coming out of the night, as the entire sports world now knows, was the knee injury QB Jordan Love sustained with about 6 seconds left in the game. Trying to keep a play alive as his protection broke down, Love was sandwiched between 2 Philly defenders and twisted both his left ankle and knee; he went down immediately in pain and after moments on the ground had to be assisted off the field.

Initially, the thought from the replay video was that it was his ankle. Turns out, not. Instead, we have now learned that Love likely sustained a MCL sprain of the grade 2 variety. Translation — still subject to revision after further testing — is that Love will likely be out at least 3 to 6 weeks according to current reports. On the one hand, we can be thankful that it wasn't an ACL tear which would have been season-ending. On the other hand, the Packers will now have to figure out a way to get through anywhere from the next 3 to 6 games without their hundreds-of-millions-of-dollars quarterback.

Oy.

Options? Not great.

What are the options? We refer you to an excellent overview in the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel on this topic. Right now, in summary, the Packers can either go with the recently-acquired Malik Willis, bring up 2nd-year backup Sean Clifford from the practice squad, or sign another QB and hope to get that person up to speed in time for the next game vs. the Colts on Sept. 15 and then ongoing until Love's return. Actually, Willis and Clifford would also need to gear up for a bit of an extended run, too.

Who are the opponents over the next 3 to 6 weeks? The next 3 weeks have the Colts coming to Lambeau Field, then at Tennessee, then back home against the ViQueens. Our initial season prediction — looking at these games plus the opener as the 1st quarter of the season — had the Pack going 3-1, although noting that they could also lose 2 of the first 4 games ... and that was with Love as QB. Without him? Hmmm. The Packers have already lost 1. Likely will lose at least 1 of the next 3 without the star QB at the helm. Perhaps two. Or all three. So from going 3-1 in this first stretch of games to going 0-4 becomes as likely a possibility as not. Not great.

Looking ahead to games 5 and 6, the Pack plays the Rams in LA and then the Cardinals back in Green Bay. Assuming Love can be back for 1 or both of these games, the Rams still remains a tough game. If Love is not yet back behind center? Advantage Rams, and the Cardinals game would probably be considered a toss-up.

Of course, all this also assumes the Packers defense remains as lackluster throughout these games as it played in the opener. That's a bit of an assumption given the caliber of the players on that unit and the reputation of Jeff Hadley as defensive coordinator. The expectation is that things will get straightened out and that could help cover up any offensive issues for a time...perhaps the D and special teams could even win a game or 2. That would be nice.

The bottom line is that things are very much up in the air. Not how the team or fans thought we would start this season out. But at least there is the likelihood that Love returns and can hopefully regain at some point the characteristics we saw on display in the second half of last season. Because, let's also be honest, he was not locked in that way in this opening game vs. Philly. He wasn't horrible, but wasn't as sharp as we would have hoped either.

Season Prediction Adjustment?

Our initial season prediction saw the Pack finishing at 11-6. That was with Love at QB for all 17 games. Now? Oy. I think at least 1 game has to switch from the win to the loss column during the next 3 weeks. And if Love is out 6 weeks? I think another win turns to a loss. So we could now, barring some miracle or series of miracles, see the Packers finishing at 9-8. That's definitely on the playoff bubble...not a place anyone expected to be given the team's consensus Super Bowl contender preseason status.

The road has become much more uncertain, Packer fans. Let's offer up some "thoughts and prayers" for our favorite QB, Jordan Love, for a fast and effective return. For not only his well-being, but for the team's season prognosis, as well.

Go Pack Go!!!

P.S. 

Can we also agree that the Packers should NEVER agree to play another international NFL game? Cases in point: the Packers played, and lost in London, and then-QB Aaron Rodgers broke his thumb; in the team's second international appearance, the Packers played, and lost in Brazil, and starting QB Jordan Love was injured at the end of the game and will be lost 3 to 6 weeks with a sprained MCL.

Let the NFL send its bottom-of-barrel teams out of country. Too much at stake for the top-level teams. Too much. If that sounds elitist, sorry. But there are differences and matters of degree across the franchises. We understand the international draw of the Packers as one of the top teams in the NFL, but the risk to the Packers — despite the dollar rewards to the NFL — is not worth it. (So ends the editorial portion of this post.)

Friday, September 06, 2024

2024 NFL Season Week 1: Packers vs Eagles

We hope you've had a chance to check out our Season Prediction, Packer fans, for an overview of how we are looking at the season and how we believe it will play out given the schedule.

But it all starts, of course, with Game #1: the Pack vs. the Eagles down in good ol' Brazil. Crikey! There's been a lot of buildup going into this game, of course, with 2 of the top contenders in the NFC going head to head in the first-ever NFL game held in South America. While it's not a mandatory win for either, whichever team does come out on top may well have an important tie-breaker at the end of the season if playoff seeding is in play.

Kenny Clark, defensive tackle

The Packers need to have a big game tonight from Kenny Clark and the entire defensive unit to shut down Eagles QB Jalen Hurts et al.

(Photo by Tork Mason/USA TODAY NETWORK-Wisconsin)

Two top offenses. Which is the better defense?

There probably doesn't need to be a lot of discussion of offenses at this point. Both teams think they know what they have with two top quarterbacks. There are also two top running backs: the Packers, as we know, let Aaron Jones go (to the ViQueens...ewww) and picked up a younger and accomplished back in Josh Jones. Didn't see him really in the preseason outside of the first carry in the first preseason game and a pass reception in the flat ... so hard to know how he and the O-line have synced up. We'll find out. The question is who might his back up be tonight and going forward as injuries in the backfield make that a bit of a toss-up at the moment. And, as we also know, RB A.J. Dillon was placed on the season-ending (and perhaps Packers-career-ending) injured reserved list after a lackluster preseason. So...a question there.

No question for the Packers regarding their receivers, though. If the line can give Love time (which we expect against an Eagles defense that has some questions surrounding it), we see Love having a big night in the air. Especially if Jacobs can do enough to keep the Eagles D a bit unsure of what the Packers will do.

Conversely, the Eagles offense is also high powered with a QB of the type that has always seemed to give the Packers fits. Someone who can run and throw: Jalen Hurts. The Packers defensive front has to keep him in check. But even if they do, let's remember that the Eagles acquired RB Saquon Barkley in the offseason. Oy. The Pack's new defensive coordinator, Jeff Hafley, has a load of talent to work with on that side of the ball and will need to scheme the line and coverages in ways that minimize the chances for getting picked apart in the running and passing games. As it's the first game of the season AND the very first under this new 4-3 defensive scheme the Pack will be running, one might expect a lot of adjustments throughout the game.

If it comes down to the kicking game? Oh boy. We Packer fans will be getting our very first look at our new kicker, Brayden Narveson, claimed after the Titans waived him following the preseason. Strong leg, we hear. We've heard that before. We need an accurate leg. Supposedly, Narveson has performed well in his young — and non-NFL — career. If you're one who believes in the power of prayer...start now.

The Prediction

The Eagles are currently favored by 3 points over the Pack. We've seen the over-under at 48-1/2 points. We see it as basically a toss-up game. One team could blow the other team out. Or not. We think the point differential is about right. But we see the Packers picking up where they left off at the end of the last regular season and the Eagles doing the same (a 1-6 finish after a strong start). Bottom line: Packers win.

We're call this game Packers 27- Eagles 24.

Go Pack Go!!!

With the 2024 Packers season upon us ... Here's our season prediction (our 20th!!!)

Hello again, Packers fans ... and all who wish they were.

We've had a looooong hiatus here at PackerFansUnited...since just before the Divisional game vs. San Fran, to be exact. Been engaged with much movement in life during this time, including literally moving on to a new home a couple of states away. So I have plenty of excuses. There's been a lot of water under the bridge since then: player and coaches comings and goings, injury updates, cut-downs, final roster, etc. Too much to cover here and you know it all already anyway.

So let's just get to the important matters of the moment: the season prediction, just as we've done every year. We'll do the prediction for tonight's opener against the Eagles (in Brazil!!!) in a separate post. We invite you to please check back for that before gametime later today.

The Season Prediction

Since the start of this blog in 2005 (20 years ago now ... 20!), we have looked at the season preview not game by game (those are done individually at the relevant time) but more along the lines of a quarter by season quarter point of view and the overall feel of it, so to speak. With a 17th regular season game in place for the last few years, we'll have 4 quarters plus one extra game...and the bye week, too...resulting in 18 weeks to examine. You'll figure it out. Home games are in green. Be aware, of course, that the NFL may flex various game times, especially later in the season, so the days/times shown here are as they are now indicated on the official schedule. The final home game vs. Chicago is, however, already listed as TBD game in terms of date and time.


Jordan Love, quarterback

QB Jordan Love will lead the Packers 

in the first game of the 2024 season.

(Photo by Scott Galvin-USA TODAY Sports)




1st Quarter of the Season

Week 1: @ Eagles - Fri 9/6 · 7:15 PM CDT

Week 2: Colts - Sun 9/15 · 12:00 PM CDT

Week 3: @ Titans - Sun 9/22 · 12:00 PM CDT

Week 4: Vikings - Sun 9/29 · 12:00 PM CDT

We think it's likely the Packers lose one, and perhaps two, of these first four games. The season opener on Sept. 6 in Brazil...more on that one in a separate post. But it sure adds a big unknown to literally kick off the season. Despite the Pack being once again one of the odds-on favorites to make the NFC Championship Game, and, Packer nation hopes, the Super Bowl, and having a talented roster on both sides of the ball, we really don't know how it's all going to come together, especially with a new defensive coordinator and a new featured running back in Josh Jacobs. The O-line and wide receiving corps are solid. When there isn't a clear #1 receiver, that tells you that there are a lot of weapons that can shred a defense; give QB Jordan Love the time and they can shred the defense. We see the Packers coming out of these four games with a strong start and a 3-1 record.

2nd Quarter of the Season  (+1)

Week 5: @ Rams - Fri 10/6 · 3:25 PM CDT

Week 6: Cardinals - Sun 10/13 · 12:00 PM CDT

Week 7: Texans - Sun 10/20 · 12:00 PM CDT

Week 8: @ Jaguars - Sun 10/27 · 12:00 PM CDT

Week 9: Lions - Sun 11/3 · 12:00 PM CST

Week 10: BYE

Coming off a home game against the ViQueens, hitting the road to take on the Rams in LA is a tough one. Also, in looking at the other teams in this quarter, the Texans are the team to worry about. Still, we think the Packers should come out of these four games with a 3-2 record.

3rd Quarter of the Season

Week 11: @ Da Bears - Sun 11/17 · 12:00 PM CST

Week 12: 49ers - Sun 11/24 · 3:25 PM CST

Week 13: Dolphins - Thurs (Thanksgiving) 11/28 · 7:20 PM CST

Week 14: @ Lions - Thurs 12/5 · 7:15 PM CST

This begins a tough little stretch, Packer fans, despite the Bye Week coming at a pretty good time in the schedule just ahead of this gauntlet of games. It will be the first chance to see the Caleb Williams-led Bearz. He'll either be living up to the hype at this point of the season. Or not. There will certainly be enough game film of him by that meeting to allow the Pack to scheme their defense accordingly. Then the kryptonite comes to Lambeau: the Niners. If the Packers want to get to the next level this season, they have to beat San Fran on home turf. Dolphins and Lions back to back...oy. We can see the Pack going 2-2 in this stretch.

4th Quarter of the Season

Week 15: @ Seahawks - Sun 12/15 · 7:20 PM CST

Week 16: Saints - Mon 12/23 · 7:15 PM CST

Week 17: @ Vikings - Sun 12/29 · 12:00 PM CST

Week 18: Da Bears - TBD

If the Pack is healthy (let us pray...), here's where the stretch run to the playoffs and Super Bowl gains steam. Given the opponents and being able to finish at home, we see the Packers going 3-1 over this span of games.

Summary


Looking back at our predictions, we have the Packers going no worse than 11-6. (Many projections we've seen have the Pack going 10-7, 11-6, or 12-5.) It will likely come down to the Pack and the Lions for the NFC North Division title. We'll worry about the playoff scenarios much, much later on. Lot of ball game left, as the saying goes.


As always, GO PACK GO!!!

Friday, January 19, 2024

2023 Season Divisional Round Playoff Game: Packers vs. 49ers Preview & Prediction

While all the attention is rightly on Saturday evening's NFC Divisional Playoff game between the Green Bay Packers and the San Francisco 49ers, we have to take a moment to acknowledge what is — factually — the biggest upset in NFL history: the 7th seed Packers beating the 2nd seed Dallas Cowboys last Sunday. Not just beating the 'boys, but smokin' them. 27-0 in the 1st half. A final score of 48-32 with Dallas' final two scores coming in garbage time. Never before had a 7th seed won a playoff game. Well done Jordan Love, Aaron Jones, Matt LaFleur, Joe Barry (?) and everyone in the Packers organization. Wow. Just wow.

Now, let's get to the game in Santa Clara, shall we?

If Packers QB Jordan Love continues his lights-out performance
Saturday evening, the Packers have a chance to pull off another
upset win and find themselves in the NFC Championship game.
(Photo via the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel)


The Preview

As it turns out, with this game, the Packers and Niners will now have faced each other 10 times in the playoffs, more than any other pair of teams in the NFL. Amazing. Of the prior 9, San Fran has a 5-4 edge, with the Packers having lost four straight. Meh. Time to change the script, right, Packers fans?

There is admittedly a degree of difference in the overall team talent level at present between these two teams. Yet, all the young Packers don't seem to care about that. If they did, they would have likely lost in Dallas last weekend. All this Green Bay team knows how to do at this point is to play hard and to play for each other. It doesn't matter who gets the ball, who has to block, who has to tackle or cover. And head coach Matt LaFleur's wide-open play-calling has launched a first-year starting quarterback (i.e., Jordan Love) into the stratosphere of quarterbacking, and has solidified his status as "The Guy" not just this year but going forward. And not just going forward but, to the horror of Bears' fans and others, perhaps for the next decade or more. (On a related note, and particularly for my great friend Billy Da Bears Fan, Jordan Love has thrown for more than 4,000 yards in his first year as the starter; in the entire history of the Chicago Bears they have never had a single QB throw for more than 4,000 yards. Just in case you want to know.)

The Niners are solid on offense and defense, hence their number 1 seed and the reason they are currently favored to win by a wide margin. And, if the Packers do not match San Fran's physicality, they won't be in the game. The game will ultimately be determined, as has so much of the Pack's season, by the defense. If they show up — as they have for the last month or so — they can stay in the game. If they can create a turnover or two, they can help win the game. That's no throw-away comment: when the Niners have no turnovers, they were 8-0 this season; when they had one or more turnovers, they were 4-5 this season. If the Packers want to increase their chances for a win, they need to get to QB Brock Purdy and help create a turnover or two. Do that, and the odds of a win go up; don't get near him and ... well, it makes things more difficult.

The Niners defense also presents its challenges, as all football fans know. The O-line will really need one of its best games of the season to protect Jordan Love as well as to make an opening now and then for RB Aaron Jones. As all Packers fans know, the return of Jones and his 100+ yards rushing per game over the last three games has been a key to the Pack's win streak. Getting 100 yards rushing in this game will be a challenge. But if Jones can get 100+ yards combed rushing and receiving, that would be a significant boost to the Pack's chances.

Which Packers receiver will get 100+ yards receiving? Who knows. Over the span of the past three games, three different receivers have accomplished that feat. The Packers have a lot of weapons for the Niners to worry about. If the play-calling and scheming are in sync, the Pack can keep San Francisco if not exactly on their heels at least giving them a pause now and then ... which might be just enough.

Now, another factor to consider in this game is the weather. Yes, yes, we're not talking cold and snow; the game is in the Bay area (as the San Fran locals say) not the Green Bay area. That means, this time of year, rain. There is an 80 percent chance of rain throughout the day and into the evening, although it seems from the various forecasts that the heaviest rain will take place Friday evening and Saturday morning. Then, it's hit and miss. But at least one local forecaster is advising those attending the game to bring some rain gear, just in case. Winds of 10 to 15 mph at game time are expected, but again, a bit of a moving target forecast-wise. Not horrible winds if that's indeed the case, at least in dry conditions.

As former Carolina Panthers (and Wisconsin Badgers) punter, Brad Nortman, said on his radio show Friday, these wet conditions actually will act as a bit of an equalizer for the Packers. It tends, in his experience, to help the defense as offensive skill players — running backs, returners and receivers — need to think a bit more about whether or not they can make a particular cut, for example. The QB needs to think about whether he can make a certain throw (btw, QB trivia: Jordan Love's hands are larger than Brock Purdy's making for a better grip on the ball). And place kickers need to be sure of their plant when making kick attempts. The argument could be made that the Packers are probably more used to playing in adverse weather conditions than are the Niners. Who knows? All we do know is that the wet field, rain and wind conditions will likely play a role in the game. To which team's advantage, and to what degree, we will have to wait to see.

We also can't forget the referees in this game, especially given how poorly the NFL refs performed overall this season in getting calls right...which includes not making calls when none were needed. Unfortunately, the crew referring this game will be that of referee Alex Kemp, whose regular-season crew led the NFL with an average of 15.3 flags per game. And guess what? Both the Pack and Niners finished in the top third of the NFL for most flags this season. What are the odds that some bad and game-changing calls will be made? Oy. But both teams will have to play with this crew calling the shots. Let us pray.

The Prediction

Depending upon who you are looking at, the Niners are favored by 9-1/2 to 10 points over the Pack at the time of this posting. The Packers are used to being the underdog most of this season, and certainly in the playoffs. In other words, we've got 'em just where we want them.

There are so many story lines at play in this game, as there were against the Cowboys. The weather and the referees are outside factors that will affect both teams in various ways. If the Packers play at the same level they have over the last month-plus, they can stay in the game and win. Against any team. If they don't get off to a fast start and get beat physically, they will have a hard time pulling out the win.

We are of the view (gold 'n' green-colored, of course) that the Packers will keep things rolling. San Fran has been sitting and didn't look exceptional in their last few games. Of the two, the Packers are the hot team. And you gotta go with who's hot.

We're calling it Packers 31 - 49ers 30.

Go Pack Go!!!