NFL NFC Championship: Packers vs. Falcons preview and prediction

After the epic win in Dallas in the NFC Divisional Playoff, and for the second time in three years, the Green Bay Packers are in the NFC Championship Game. As Packers fans, we can only hope and pray that this game turns out better than the last (the horror...the horr0r...).

We awoke to good news for starters: according to the NFL Network, wide receivers Jordy Nelson, Davante Adams and Geronimo Allison are all expected to play today. This was very much in question over the last few days as all have been nursing injuries, none more so than Nelson who has two broken ribs. The thinking might be (OK, this is my thinking) that even if Nelson can only be on the field part of the time, and not even be thrown to (to try to protect those ribs), he will have to be covered; that takes one defender away from another receiver who could perhaps otherwise receive double coverage. In other words, Nelson as decoy. The Pack have three additional receivers active today (not including Ty Montgomery), which is one more than typical...for insurance purposes, it would seem.

The Packers need to get pumped and play 60 minutes of outstanding football -- on both sides of the ball -- to win today.
Photo by Mark Hoffman, Milwaukee Journal Sentinel
It is interesting to note, however, that the Packers did elevate one of their practice squad receivers yesterday to the 53-man roster: Max McCaffrey. (If that name sounds familiar it is because he is the son of former Pro Bowl receiver Ed McCaffrey and the older brother of Christian McCaffrey, whom we know is currently projected as a first-round pick in this year's NFL draft.) The Pack signed him to the practice squad in December after he was released by the Raiders. He was undrafted out of Duke and has yet to play in an NFL game. To make room for McCaffrey, the Packers put center JC Tretter on the injured reserve list.

The Packers, fortunately, have great depth at receiver and that depth will be needed today. Of course, the Pack also has TE Jared Cook who has been nothing short of amazing since returning from injury earlier in the season. Recall that he did not play in the earlier loss to the Falcons, nor did Montgomery. It's all hands on deck.

Atlanta is averaging over 35 points per game at home. The Falcons earlier season win against the Pack was by one point, 33-32. So stop the presses! There will be points scored today. The record for points for a NFL championship game is 73. We believe it will be more than that today.

Neither of these two teams boasts outstanding defenses. Both are near the bottom of the standings. Atlanta is actually 32nd in red zone defense. So the more often the Packers can get into the red zone, the better. Pass protection for both teams is very good. Atlanta is the only team in the league that has had all five starters on the offensive line start every game this season. Amazing. The Packers O-line give Rodgers time to work outside of the pocket and find receivers downfield. So it's going to be an offensive battle and the defense that can generate a turnover or two, or make a stop, is likely the team that will come out on top. It may very well come down to "whoever has the ball last wins," just like last weekend versus the Cowboys. So get your heart medication ready again, Packer fans.

It's getting close to about 2 hours to game time and we could go on and on. But we won't. Let's get to the prediction.

The Prediction
You've already read here and elsewhere that the expectation is for a high-scoring game. The Falcons are favored by 5 points, which seems a bit off, despite Atlanta coming into this game arguably as hot as the Packers. It is the final game in the George Dome so that might generate some additional energy for a while for the Dirty Birds. But if the Packers can get out early as they did last weekend, and the defense can get a turnover or two and make some key stops -- don't let that two-headed running attack of the Falcons get going, for example -- Rodgers and company should come out on top. Ty Montgomery should have a big day...and not just because it's his 24th birthday. Mike McCarthy will have a game plan in place to take advantage of the defense's weaknesses. Dom Capers will be as creative as he can be given the walking MASH unit that is the Packers' secondary. And if it comes down to the leg of kicker Mason Crosby, say it with me, "It's good!". (By the way, there's a great story about Crosby by Ryan Wood of the USA-Today Network-Wisconsin. Really gives you great insight into the mind of a kicker...especially this kicker.)

The Pack will be packing for Houston after this game's over. We're calling this one Packers 41 - Falcons 38.

Go Pack Go!!!

NFL NFC Divisional Playoffs: Packers vs. Cowboys Preview and Prediction

Today's the day, Packer fans: the Green Packers take on the Dallas Cowboys in Dallas for the right to meet the Atlanta Falcons in the NFC Championship Game next weekend. How are you feeling about today's game? If you have mixed feelings, you are clearly not alone. On the other hand, if you're riding high off the Pack's seven-game winning streak you'll see them as an unstoppable force no matter what. So let's look at just a few particulars to consider.

Head coach Mike McCarthy and QB Aaron Rodgers
need to come up big today against the Cowboys.
Photo by Rick Wood, Milwaukee Journal Sentinel
Offenses
Deserving of all the praise it gets, the Dallas offense ranks fifth in the league overall in terms of both points scored (26.3) and yards per game (376.7). It is 23rd-ranked in terms of passing yards per game (226.9), which might be expected behind a rookie quarterback...a very good one, admittedly. Where the team gets its bump up the rankings comes via the rushing game and another outstanding rookie, Ezekiel Elliott. The 'boys generate 149.8 rushing yards per game, giving them the number two spot overall in terms of rushing attack. While QB Dak Prescott and Elliott may get the headlines, it's the Cowboys offensive line that provides the basis for everything that happens behind it. Led by Travis Frederick at center (both a southeastern Wisconsin native and UW-Madison Badger, by the way), this was and still is the best offensive line the Packers have faced all season. The Packers defense will need to keep the mojo going the way they did in the win against the Giants at Lambeau last weekend in order to stay in the game today. Elliott could take over the game if the Pack doesn't play the game of their season so far. Add to the offensive mix the fact that number one receiver Dez Bryant will return to play today. Coming off a week's rest, Dallas will put up points, no doubt.

As for the Packers offense, the Pack actually ranks ahead of the 'boys in terms of points scored during the regular season, at 27 points per game (4th overall). The Packers are a few spots behind Dallas, at number 8, in terms of yardage per game: 368.8. Not surprisingly, behind the arm of Aaron Rodgers and the hands of his many capable receivers, the Pack finished seventh overall in terms of passing yards per game: 262.4. The rushing game ranks 20th overall with 106.3 yards per game behind an efficient, albeit not explosive, attack now led by Ty Montgomery. Christine Michael, having now been with the team for sufficient time to get the playbook down, also offers a burst and rushing threat the Pack didn't have in the first match up. And, of course, FB Aaron Ripkowski can move the pile and also provide a pass outlet for Rodgers if needed. The Packers offensive line doesn't get the credit it deserves for its incredible protection given to Rodgers, allowing him time to move in and out of the pocket to find his receivers downfield. One of the strategies Dallas used in its October win over the Pack at Lambeau -- and will try to use again today -- was to keep Rodgers in the pocket. There's no secret to the fact that Rodgers is at his most dangerous when he breaks out of the pocket to scramble and find his receivers. The Cowboys frustrated Rodgers and the Packers offense in the first meeting. We'd expect Dallas to apply the same strategy as before and also expect the Packers to make adjustments. One of the biggest adjustments in that regard today will be playing without WR Jordy Nelson who was injured in the game against New York. Luckily, Randall Cobb returned in good form last weekend, Davante Adams is making big plays and undrafted rookie Geronimo Allison is in position to have a breakout game if other receivers are covered. Add another weapon the Pack didn't have in the first match up: TE Jared Cook. Cook's return from injury has coincided a great deal with the Pack's winning streak. Coincidence? We think not. Finally, neither the Packers nor the 'boys turn the ball over much; Rodgers, in particular, has been amazing during the winning streak, with no interceptions vs. the touchdowns thrown. That trend must continue today. So does the need for the Pack to get at least one or two takeaways. The Dallas strategy will be to keep Rodgers on the sideline by running the ball as much as it can to eat the clock and thus play defense by playing great offense.The Packers -- like Dallas -- will put up points, no doubt.

Defenses
Let's just cut to the chase here and say that the Dallas defense ranks higher than the Pack, 14th overall vs. 22nd. In terms of each statistical category, Dallas ranks ahead of the Pack. So given basically a "push" in terms of offenses (for argument sake), shouldn't the nod go to the team with the better defense? You'd think so. But one of the elements which factored heavily into the earlier Dallas win was an inept Packers offense that still hadn't found itself...AND...four turnovers by the Pack. You may be surprised that the Packers actually ranked ahead of the 'boys in terms of season turnover differential. This is particularly the case, as fans know, for the Packers during their winning streak. The Packers tied with several other teams for second in terms of interceptions, with 17. Defensive back Damarious Randall appeared on the injury report yesterday and just how much he's able to play, and at what level, is a concern given the already thin defensive backfield. Defensive coordinator Dom Capers has done a masterful job of cobbling together a defense given the injuries. The Packers will need a pass rush as well as run stuffers today. Veterans Clay Matthews and Julius Peppers need to play at the level they are capable of, that is disrupting the other team. The Packers defense has often given up yardage...big yardage on big plays. As long as touchdowns don't accompany all of those big yards, the Packers are in it. That will have to be the case again today: bend don't break.

The Prediction
We could go on and on, of course. But your head is already spinning, we know. Whether from all the data presented here or pre-game tailgating, we don't know. But either way, let's get to it, shall we?

The Packers will need to do something they really haven't done in the past three weeks, which is get out to a fast start. If they are able to do that, that will go a long way to easing the pressure on the defense to win this game...which, in fact, is something they may need to do anyway: come up with a couple big stops. But forcing Dallas to win behind a rookie QB in his first playoff game is preferable to having to grind it out against trying to stop a running back of Elliott's calibre.

The Packers will need to play their best game of the season on offense, defense and special teams to walk out of Dallas with the win. Luckily for Packer fans, they have been doing just that in recent weeks. They'll do it again today.

We're calling this one Packers 34-31 over Dallas.

Go Pack Go!!!

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2016 NFL Week 17: Packers vs. Lions Preview and Prediction

Happy New Year, Packers fans and those who wish they were! (And, yes, even though the headline says 2016, hopefully you woke up realizing that we are now in the year 2017. Just for a point of reference for those of you who perhaps aren't quite sure right now.) Oh, and in case you were wondering, the Pack beat Minnesota last weekend to set up tonight's division battle. Now that we have that bit of housekeeping taken care of, let's move along, shall we?

The NFL schedule makers really pulled one out of their ying-yangs when they set the final weekend schedule with the Green Bay Packers facing the Detroit Lions, didn't they? Yes, division games have been going on for the last few weeks, but they could have scheduled the lemming-like Minnesota ViQueens or that semi-pro team from Illinois. Instead, the league rolled the dice and set a match between the Pack and the Lions.

Packers and Lions head coaches, Mike McCarthy and Jim Caldwell,
prepare to dance, at least metaphorically, tonight.
Photo by Rick Wood, Milwaukee Journal Sentinel
A Refresher of Sorts
You'll remember at the start of the season that the Packers were one of the odds-on favorites to go to and, in some quarters, win the Super Bowl. They were favored in virtually every game of the season...before the season began, that is. Detroit was projected to be a playoff team by some, perhaps even a division championship contender and maybe even a Super Bowl contender (a stretch, c'mon). But then teams have to play. The Packers, due to a rash of injuries at key positions, the inability of the offense to find an identity by mid-season and that of the defense to stop big plays particularly late in games, found themselves sitting at 4-6 at their low point after four consecutive losses.

As for the Lions, they were one of the early surprises of the season. Behind in seemingly most of their games, they somehow managed eight fourth-quarter comebacks in their nine wins, an NFL record. With the Pack stuck in the mud, the 'Queens fading after key injuries of their own and Da Bearz still sucking as usual, Detroit jumped out to a two-game division lead for a few games. But coupled with their own two-game road losing streak in Weeks 15 and 16 along with the Packers' resurrection and five-game winning streak down the stretch, the Lions now find themselves tied at 9-6 with the Pack going into this final regular season game...although technically, the Packers have the tie-breaker at this point because of their 34-27 September win at Lambeau Field.

Tonight's Game
Contrary to what some surmise, this is not a "winner-take-all" game, although the build-up to it certainly makes one view it that way. And, perhaps, that's the way the teams and fans should look at it. Winning, for either the Packers or Lions (eeeeewwwww!) gives that team the NFC North Division Championship and a guaranteed home playoff game. But even with a loss, it's possible that that team could still grab a wildcard spot depending upon whether Washington wins or loses today. With a Washington loss, both the Packers and Lions can grab a spot in the playoffs regardless of whether they win or lose. But a win is just so much better, don't you think? Especially if it is the sixth win in a row, led by an offense that is really clicking and a defense that, while suspect, can do just enough to keep an opponent from outscoring the offense. We are, of course, talking about the Packers taking this game for the NFC North Division Championship.

The Packers have gotten healthier over the last several games, especially QB Aaron Rodgers, TE Jared Cook and LB Clay Matthews. Yay. WR Randall Cobb is expected to be in uniform tonight but he may not play much or at all as he's still nursing his injury from a few weeks ago. If the Packers do make a playoff run, a healthy Cobb would be an asset. In his stead, the receiving corp may see more play from rookie Geronimo Allison, who is a big target and caught several passes in last week's win against the ViQueens. It appears as if he and Rodgers are starting build a chemistry and that bodes well short and long-term.

The biggest absence for the Packers this game, as it has been all season, is CB Sam Shields. The secondary has really not had anyone step up to come close to replacing him in terms of consistent pass coverage and closing speed ability. Plays have been made in the recent wins, particularly by Ha Ha Clinton-Dix. But neither of the second-year players, Damarious Randall or Quinten Rollins, has lived up to year-two expectations. Randall, by the way, is questionable for tonight's game. If there has been one constant in the secondary, and generally an overlooked one at that, it has been the play of LaDarius Gunter.

The question mark for the Packers tonight and into the playoffs is their secondary. They have made fourth quarters a Pepto Bismol time for Packer fans everywhere most of the season, playing soft and giving up big plays particularly over the middle. Lions QB Matthew Stafford, despite his recently dislocated middle finger on his passing hand, and the Lions generally proving to themselves and others that they can come from behind late to win games, can take this game down to the wire; he's done it before against the Packers and others.

If the Packers don't put up points early -- and throughout the game -- the defensive question mark as the game goes into the fourth quarter becomes more of a concern. You don't want to keep the Lions hanging around, as the saying goes. The Packers should be able to force Stafford into making at least one turnover somewhere during the game and that may be the difference. Getting a turnover or two in games has been key during the Packers' winning streak, and it may be so again tonight.

Conversely, Detroit can also put up points with Stafford and his receiving corp. The running game doesn't count for much at this point, but the Packers will need a consistent pass rush to pressure Stafford into a bad throw or two. If you give him time, he has the arm to make you pay for bad coverage or an ineffective pass rush. The Packers' front seven needs to really bring it tonight.

Defensively, however, the Lions should be able to be exploited by the Packers offense, particularly if Detroit's top defensive back, Darius Slay, is slowed by his hamstring injury. He'll probably try to go and, if so, look for the Packers to test his coverage ability early. Without Slay, Rodgers should be able to take advantage of that secondary. The Lions linebackers are nicked up, too, so that should open up the middle if the Pack decides to spread things around. Based upon recent history, that's a reasonable expectation today.

Also look for RBs Ty Montgomery and Christine Michael to keep the Lions off balance with a solid rushing game. During the Packers stretch run, the balance between the number of rushing plays and pass plays called by McCarthy has been part of the formula. On a fast track of indoor turf, it would be great to see what Christine Michael might be able to do if he gets loose. We think even the Packers coaches are interested in seeing what might transpire in that regard.

The Prediction
We view this as a high-scoring game. The Packers are favored by 3 points at the time of this writing. We see the Pack going up in the first half and then holding on in the fourth quarter for the win. These are the recent trends for both teams. We'll go with that.

We're calling it 38-34 Packers.

Go Pack Go!!!

2016 NFL Week 16: Packers vs. Vikings Preview and Prediction

All Packers fans want for Christmas is a win over the Vikings today at Lambeau Field. Yes, that's about the best present anyone could wish for this weekend. Because that would set up the New Year's Day contest in Detroit for the NFC North Division Championship and a guaranteed home playoff game. Sugar plum fairies and 12 drummers drumming haven't got anything on that scenario!

Packers QB Aaron Rodgers looks to continue his run
of big passing games against the Vikings.
Photo by Jim Matthews
The Packers look to have a healthier Aaron Rodgers, Clay Matthews and Lane Taylor back today. That will be a boost, as will the continued strong play of RB (no longer receiver) Ty Montgomery, TE Jared Cook, and the Pack's receiving corps. Let's not forget the consistently great play of the Packers' offensive line, as well. They should give Rodgers plenty of time today against a good-but-not-great ViQueens defense.

But perhaps the key today will be the play of the Packers' secondary against Minnesota's offense. Damarious Randall got torched in the first meeting against Minnesota. He's play better since, but was pulled from the game last week against Da Bearz after repeatedly failing in coverage late in the game. The secondary overall was responsible for soft coverage against a lackluster Chicago offense, allowing them back in the game with 17 points given up in the fourth quarter. To be fair, the Packers' pass rush was non-existent, as well. That troubling scenario played out in the first meeting with Minnesota, too, giving then newly-arrived QB Sam Bradford more than enough time to be proficient in his reads and throws, in no small measure leading to the win over the Pack.

Minnesota got embarrassed last weekend against the Colts and no doubt head coach Mike Zimmer has used this as a motivational tool for today's game against the Pack. But if the Packers come out with a fast start and keep the pressure on for a full 60 minutes instead of just 30 or 45, the ViQueens should fold. The Packers are healthier at this point and are ascending at the right time will the 'Queens are going the opposite direction to finish out the season, with virtually no hope of making the playoffs. The absence of RB Adrian Peterson today also doesn't help their chances.

The Prediction
Perhaps a good omen for the Packers -- or at least a bad one for Minnesota -- is the fact that the ViQueens plane ran off the runway at the Appleton airport while taxiing to the terminal last evening. They were stuck on the plane for more than 3 hours. I know: that's a shame. Let's hope for a similarly distressing occurence or two to happen to them today during the game.

The Packers are favored by 7 points at the time of this writing. That should be achievable.

We're calling this game 34-20 Packers.

Go Pack Go!!! And Happy Hanukkah and Merry Christimas, too!

NFL 2016 Week 11: Packers vs. Washington Preview and Prediction

The Green Bay Packers take on Washington in a little more than an hour from this writing. Will the Pack get back to .500 (5-5) with a win? Or will another wheel fall off and see the Packers go to 4-6 on the season. The oddsmakers are projecting the latter, with the Pack being a 3-point underdog.

Among Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel sports writers making projections, three out of four picked Washington.

How are you feeling, Packer fans?

Packers announcer (and Packers Hall of Fame member) Larry McCarren says in his scouting report that he likes the Washington team he sees. He notes they are a better team than the one the Pack defeated last year during their playoff run. They have a decent quarterback in Kirk Cousins, some very good receivers and tight ends who can stretch the field (oh-oh) and a servicable pass rush on defense. McCarren's scouting report also noted that Washington does leave some openings over the middle and in the defensive backfield. So if Aaron Rodgers is able to find open receivers -- a problem for the Packers in recent games, true -- the Packers should be able to hold up in the scoring department. Getting TE Jared Cook back for some plays, as well as newly-acquired running back Christine Michael in the mix in a limited way, may provide a few tools for Rodgers that he hasn't had available in a while.

The big question mark, though, as it has been the last three games, is the Packers defense. Giving up the huge point totals, and with slow starts to boot, has killed this team in each of those games. If that doesn't change tonight, there is not much chance the Pack will come out on top given what we've been witnessing. The defense should get a boost from the suspected return of Clay Matthews. The Packers also signed LB Carl Bradford off the practice squad, releasing TE Justin Perillo to make room on the roster, but if Bradford has to see extended duty tonight you know things are not going well.

OLB Clay Matthews is expected to return
to action tonight against Washington.
Photo by Rick Wood, Milwaukee Journal Sentinel
The Prediction
The Packers need this game to stay one game back of both Detroit and Minnesota who each won today and are now 6-4 on the season. They also need this game to restore some of their confidence, individually and collectively. Can they? We hope so. Will they? We don't think so.

Regrettably, we're calling this game 31-24 in favor of Washington.

That doesn't stop us, though, from saying...Go Pack Go!!!

2016 NFL Week 10: Packers vs. Titans Preview and Prediction

The 4-4 Green Bay Packers travel to Tennessee this weekend to take on the 4-5 Titans in what -- from a record standpoint -- we might call the "Meh Bowl."

In what is the first of the Packers three consecutive road games, the Packers must get a win today despite QB Aaron Rodgers saying he didn't think it was a must-win game. Technically, true. Spirit-wise...no. To lose two games in a row to AFC South teams would be...not good. At all.

Packers head coach Mike McCarthy and quarterback Aaron Rodgers need to figure out a way to beat the Titans today.
Photo by Jim Matthews/USA TODAY NETWORK-Wisconsin
To say the Packers have underperformed to the halfway point in the season is an understatement. Yes, injuries have played their part. But every team has injuries. At some point, you can't blame it all on that. This blog and other media pundits and countless fans on call-in shows have all theorized about what's to blame: lack of player leadership, quarterback mechanics, quarterback girlfriend, lack of a running game (hard to run without any actual running backs available), lack of ability of receivers to get open, lack of coaching, bad play-calling, bad front office personnel decisions...well...you get the idea. There's something for everyone to not like about the performance of this Packers team so far this season.

As to what this means for today's game, does anyone really know what to expect? We've seen the Pack arguably play only two good halves of football this season...and that was across two different games weeks apart.

Today, the Packers will have to take on an underrated and, to some, a similarly underperforming team. The Titans have a young, mobile quarterback -- the kind that has given the Packers fits in the past -- in Marcus Mariota. They have a solid running game; third-ranked in the league overall. Not much in the way of receivers, really. A defense that is also middling in performance, and one which -- on a good day -- the Packers offense should be able to take advantage of.

The problem is, we don't know when Rodgers and company are actually going to have one of those good days. If the Packers have RB James Starks and TE Jared Cook back (both were listed as questionable at the time of this post), that may help some, although given both players just coming off weeks of inactivity because of injury (and surgery in Starks' case), we can't really expect much from them. Until the offense shakes itself out of its doldrums, it's hard to project outcomes, isn't it, Packer fans?

Of course, part of this is the Packers defense getting itself back together, too. With the inability to stop opposing offenses late in the game recently, again, we don't quite know what to expect. Although being without OLB Clay Matthews for the third straight week because of his ongoing hamstring problem doesn't help, does it?

The Prediction
As a result of the above unknowns today, this game can be viewed -- unfortunately -- as a toss-up despite the Packers being favored by 2-1/2 points.

As it is, we're calling it...27-23 Packers.

Go Pack Go!!!

NFL Week 7: Packers vs. Bears Preview and Prediction

Just a few days following a demoralizing 30-16 defeat at the hands of the Dallas Cowboys at Lambeau Field, the Green Bay Packers (3-2) will host the archrival Chicago Bears (1-5) this evening. The Pack will tonight be without seven players, including running backs Eddie Lacy and James Starks, as well as defensive backs Sam Shields, Damarious Randall and Quinten Rollins. Shields -- who is still in the league's concussion protocol -- was actually placed on injured reserve to open up a roster spot; he could return in Week 14. Wide receiver Jared Abbrederis, TE Jared Cook, and S Chris Banjo are also out. Wide receiver Davante Adams is listed as questionable.

As bad as it is for the Packers, Da Bearz' injury report is even longer. We wish we could feel bad about that, but given the current state of affairs in Green Bay, we don't. We'll take all the help we can get even if it's a banged-up opponent. Although, we did so hope Bears QB Jay Cutler could have played. That's always a factor in the Pack's favor.

Packers QB Aaron Rodgers and the offense
must be in sync to beat Da Bearz tonight.
Photo by Rick Wood, Milwaukee Journal Sentinel
Given the condition of both teams, it's likely this game could be mediocre at best. Despite how out-of-sync the Packers seemed on Sunday, they need to somehow find the will -- and the ways and plays -- to beat what is arguably one of the worst teams in the league at this stage of the season.

It used to be the case that after a poor personal performance, QB Aaron Rodgers would light up the following week's opponent. But given the 17-game slump that Rodgers seems to be in in terms of personal performance, we're not sure what to count on any longer. Without a sure-fire running attack to take the pressure off him, play at the level we've seen recently would not be unexpected.

The Packers did finally decide to provide some help in this regard with the acquisition via trade Monday (a trade!!!) of Kansas City running back, Knile Davis. While Davis became expendable for the Chiefs, he might at least fill a temporary need for the Packers. Don't expect much tonight, other than perhaps a few basic plays. But the other option was to keep running wide receivers Ty Montgomery and Randall Cobb out of the backfield...which, let's just say it...is no solution and, well, a bit nuts, right? The Packers did have one other option, activating practice squad RB Don Jackson to the active roster. For this game, at least, the Pack will try to make it with Davis, et al. (By the way, Milwaukee Journal Packers beat writer extraordinaire, Bob McGinn, has a great article today about Davis; it's highly suggested reading.)

Prediction
Depending upon your source, the Packers are currently favored by 7-1/2 to 9-1/2 points. We'd like to think that's how things will roll tonight. But are we confident based upon what we've seen so far this season? Not really.

Still, we need to make a prediction. We're calling it 24-13 Packers.

Go Pack Go!!!

2016 Week #5: Packers vs. Giants Preview & Prediction

Following their Week 4 bye, the 2-1 Green Bay Packers host the 2-2 New York Giants tonight at venerable Lambeau Field. Rested and ready to go after an unusual early season schedule -- actually, the entire season schedule is a bit odd, isn't it? -- the Packers get some of their key players back. Among them, Letroy Guion will rejoin a defensive front that has been more than holding its own in his absence. His addition back into the rotation tonight (plus the return of Mike Pennel who comes off suspension this next week) will make an already very good defense even better. CB Sam Shields, however, will still be out for tonight's game, as will TE Jared Cook, who was injured in the Lions game. CB Damarious Randall was listed as questionable at the time of this writing. What might that mean for tonight?

On offense, the Giants have a "running-back-by-committee" approach to their ground game, with three capable running backs to move into rotation as the game demands. The receivers, led by current head-case Odell Beckham Jr., can create problems for an undermanned or mediocre secondary. QB Eli Manning can certainly do some damage when given time. He didn't have that luxury in the Giants last game at Minnesota. But he is 2-1 at Lambeau Field, including playoffs, 4-3 overall versus the Packers. In his last four games against the Pack -- including the 2011 playoff win -- Manning has had a pair of 330-plus-yard games, three three-TD games, and a cumulative 104.9 passer rating. Yeah...can't let him have that type of game tonight. Keep pressure on him, make him uncomfortable, and turnovers will be the outcome.

LB Clay Matthews and the rest of the Packers defense
will need to put pressure on Giants QB Eli Manning all evening.
(Photo: Mark Hoffman / Milwaukee Journal Sentinel)
Defensively, reports indicate that the Giants may be without three starters in their defensive backfield. That would seem to bold well for the Packers passing game, which finally found itself in the first half of the Lions game. The Giants pass rush is one which the Packers should be able to handle, with all due respect to Jason Pierre-Paul.

McCarthy vs. McAdoo
There's a great story in today's Milwaukee Journal Sentinel by Tom Silverstein about the task facing former Packers assistant coach and now Giants head coach Ben McAdoo. The fact that both head coaches know one another's tendencies is part of the game story. Seems as if the advantage would go to McAdoo, though, as he also knows very well the Pack's personnel on both sides of the ball, as well as the various schemes used. Still, McCarthy has the head coach tenure advantage: McCarthy's been there. But beyond that...? Might be an interesting chess match played by the coaches. But the bottom line is that the players still play. Advantage: Packers.

The Prediction
The Packers are currently favored by 7 points. That always makes me nervous as it seems in recent times the Packers don't always do well when they are favored by such a spread. The over-under, for those who pay attention to such things, is listed as 48.5 points.

We think that playing at Lambeau, following a bye week for the Packers and a second straight week on the road by the Giants (and on a "short" week at that), the personnel, and whatever intangibles you ascribe to a Sunday night game, the Packers will emerge victorious. Given that the ViQueens remain unbeaten after trouncing Houston today, the Packers can't afford to drop a game further behind in the division. They need this game.

We're calling it 34-24 Packers.

Go Pack Go!!!

NFL Week 1 2016: Packers vs. Jaguars Preview and Prediction

Welcome to the start of the 2016 NFL season, Packers fans! There are high expectations for this team. More on that in a minute, and specifically as regards today's game.

But first, I invite you to take a moment and remember all those lost, injured and impacted with the events of September 11, 2001...

Thank you.

Now, to the Packers. Some oddsmakers and prognosticators are projecting the Packers to not only be in the Super Bowl but to win it; from their stat sheets to God's ears, to turn a phrase if not a theological point. Some, such as the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel's great writer, Bob McGinn, don't think the Packers helped themselves in this regard with the shocking release of Pro Bowl left guard Josh Sitton. His article on how the Pack "blew it" with this clumsily handled roster move is definitely worth reading.

Be that as it may, fourth-year player Lane Taylor is now your starter at this position. He's demonstrated his ability as a servicable run blocker, but there is a great deal of skepticism as we start the season about his pass-blocking abilities. He also had what can only be described as a disappointing game, with three penalties including two back-to-back, in the preseason finale. Given that he's one of the two guys essentially protecting the franchise's (that would be QB Aaron Rodgers, of course) blind side, Taylor is going to have to raise the level of his play in that regard quite quickly.

The Packers secondary will be challenged by the Jags receiving corps.
(Photo: Joe Robbins, Getty Images)
How we see it
As game time rapidly approaches, we need to get to the heart of the conversation, don't we?

The first game of the season is a lot like the proverbial box of chocolates: you never know what you're going to get. This will be the first time that starters on both sides of the ball for both teams are called upon to play a full 60 minutes. Expect some rustiness, some blown plays, and probably more penalties than we'll see later on in the season. Having said that, there should be no reason that Aaron Rodgers isn't able to lead the Pack to victory today. He's got a great group of receivers, although the Pack might very well choose to use Jory Nelson sparingly depending upon how he's feeling coming off his injury from last season. Expect to see a great deal of the Packers tight ends, especially Jared Cook. He can stretch the field and coverage in a way we haven't seen since the days of Jermichael Finley. Also expect a heavy dose of Eddie Lacy and James Starks. The running game will have to exert itself early and often in order to allow Rodgers the time he'll need to open up the passing game. One unknown at least at the time of this writing is whether left tackle David Bakhtiari will start or even play at all today; he was listed as "questionable" on yesterday's injury report. Under the new labelling system, this puts him roughly somewhere between 50.1 and 99 percent likelihood to play. If he's unable to go, rookie Jason Spriggs will take his place and then that entire left side of the Packers offensive line will be new...not ideal in protecting Rodgers' blind side, especially against what could be a good Jaguars defensive line and pass rush.

As for the Packers defense, the line is thin for various reasons. The inside linebackers are young -- including rookie starter Blake Martinez who will be relaying the plays called in from Dom Capers et al. The secondary should be the strength of the defense early on and probably throughout the season. The d-backs will be challenged today with a very good corps of Jag receivers. If QB Blake Bortles gets in rhythm it could be a challenging day. If the Packers defensive front can make him uncomfortable, the secondary may have opportunities for multiple interceptions. Let's hope that's the way it plays out.

Our prediction
The Packers are 5-1/2 point favorites. That's a pretty good spread for any time of the season, but particularly on the road in a "Let's see what we all got" type of game. Despite what is reported to be perhaps the third-hottest game the Packers will have ever played in -- and remember, Jacksonville opted for their white jerseys today, making the Packers play in the darker and hence warmer green jerseys -- the Pack is the better team.

We're calling it 27-20 Packers.

Go Pack Go!!!

Leroy Butler: Sports brings us together, the way it should be
We have to highly recommend to you this special article that Packers great Leroy Butler wrote for the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel today. Given the current political and cultural environment in which we seem to be immersed, Butler advocates for the lessons we all can learn from sports as a way to be unified rather than divided. Amen. Read it.

We're baaaaaccckkkk! And so's the NFL Draft.

Hello, again, Packer fans! After our extended hiatus -- brought about by the Packers' heartbreaking loss to the Cardinals (per my last post) -- we're back. Hope you've been keeping abreast of all the Pack's goings-on on our Amazing 2nd Page, which is a real-time compendium (look it up!) of Packers news, NFL news, and more from around the globe. It's a really good, quick, overview of everything (or most everything) you're probably going to want to know. Really.

Anyway, here's a quick Reader's Digest review of just a few things that have transpired during our hiatus...B.J. Raji has unofficially retired, might come back, might not, who knows? Mike Pennel is suspended for the first four games of the 2016 regular season. Jared Cook is a new tight end courtesy of the Rams not resigning him. Jordy Nelson continues to progress ahead of schedule. Aaron Rodgers had a successful knee clean up There's a few other things, of course, but you probably already know them so no need to rehash them now. Let's move along, shall we?

2016 NFL Draft Underway
With the 27th pick in the first round of the 2016 NFL draft, the Packers chose UCLA NT Kenny Clark. With Raji's "retirement," a big hole existed in the Packers' defensive line. If Raji was back, the Pack would have make another selection. But the team needs a big man to anchor that 3-4 scheme and Clark fits the bill quite well. Read more here.

UCLA NT Kenny Clark is the Packers 2016 1st round draft pick.
Photo Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports
Day Two of the draft saw Packers GM Ted Thompson do something he rarely does: trade up. Sitting with the 57th pick, Thompson obviously felt that the player he wanted would be gone if he waited. So he packaged fourth and seventh round picks in this year's draft to move up to the 48th slot. With that pick, Thompson secured a huge left tackle from Indiana in the person of Jason Spriggs.

Indiana OT Jason Spriggs is the Packers' 2016 2nd round draft pick.
Photo Credit: Sam Tongue/The Elkhart Truth
Spriggs will be able to work behind the Pack's current tackles and could be the heir-apparent should current LT David Bakhtiari decide to walk during next year's free agency period. Anyone who questions why Thompson would trade up to get an offensive tackle should only reflect back on the disaster that was the Packers' offensive line when both Bakhtiari and Bulaga were out last season. Remember? Remember??? Yeah...that's why.

With the team's third round pick, Thompson pulled the trigger on Utah State linebacker Kyler Fackrell. Just less than two years removed from an ACL tear, Fackrell now finds himself as part of the Pack's outside linebacker crew. At 6'5" and 245 pounds, Fackrell's rehab went well enough that he had the best statistical season of his college career last year: he started all 13 games he played, thus continuing his streak of starting every game in his collegiate career. He finished his senior season with 82 tackles (15 for loss), had 4 sacks, and recovered five fumbles. Not bad. Certainly got the attention of Ted Thompson. And, obviously, the prior ACL injury was not a concern for Thompson and his staff.

Utah State LB Kyler Fackrell is the Packers 2016 NFL draft 3rd round pick.
Photo Credit: Utah State
One can imagine Fackrell will be given opportunities to use his speed rush ability in third down and blitz packages, bookending Clay Matthews.

Fourth Through Seventh Rounds Today
In about an hour from this posting, the final day of the draft will commence. The Packers enter the day with four picks, although you never know what wheeling and dealing Uncle Ted might do. The Packers have the 33rd and 39th picks (both compensatory and not available to trade) in the fourth round, numbers 131 and 137 overall, as well as the 26th pick in the fifth round (163 overall) and the 25th pick in the sixth round (200 overall). Remember that the Pack traded fourth round and seventh round picks to move up in the second round to get Spriggs.

Enjoy the continuing unwrapping of our Christmas-in-April gifts, Packer fans! We'll be back again later this weekend to get caught up on these later rounds.

Go Pack Go!!!