NFL NFC Divisional Playoffs: Packers vs. Cowboys Preview and Prediction

Today's the day, Packer fans: the Green Packers take on the Dallas Cowboys in Dallas for the right to meet the Atlanta Falcons in the NFC Championship Game next weekend. How are you feeling about today's game? If you have mixed feelings, you are clearly not alone. On the other hand, if you're riding high off the Pack's seven-game winning streak you'll see them as an unstoppable force no matter what. So let's look at just a few particulars to consider.

Head coach Mike McCarthy and QB Aaron Rodgers
need to come up big today against the Cowboys.
Photo by Rick Wood, Milwaukee Journal Sentinel
Offenses
Deserving of all the praise it gets, the Dallas offense ranks fifth in the league overall in terms of both points scored (26.3) and yards per game (376.7). It is 23rd-ranked in terms of passing yards per game (226.9), which might be expected behind a rookie quarterback...a very good one, admittedly. Where the team gets its bump up the rankings comes via the rushing game and another outstanding rookie, Ezekiel Elliott. The 'boys generate 149.8 rushing yards per game, giving them the number two spot overall in terms of rushing attack. While QB Dak Prescott and Elliott may get the headlines, it's the Cowboys offensive line that provides the basis for everything that happens behind it. Led by Travis Frederick at center (both a southeastern Wisconsin native and UW-Madison Badger, by the way), this was and still is the best offensive line the Packers have faced all season. The Packers defense will need to keep the mojo going the way they did in the win against the Giants at Lambeau last weekend in order to stay in the game today. Elliott could take over the game if the Pack doesn't play the game of their season so far. Add to the offensive mix the fact that number one receiver Dez Bryant will return to play today. Coming off a week's rest, Dallas will put up points, no doubt.

As for the Packers offense, the Pack actually ranks ahead of the 'boys in terms of points scored during the regular season, at 27 points per game (4th overall). The Packers are a few spots behind Dallas, at number 8, in terms of yardage per game: 368.8. Not surprisingly, behind the arm of Aaron Rodgers and the hands of his many capable receivers, the Pack finished seventh overall in terms of passing yards per game: 262.4. The rushing game ranks 20th overall with 106.3 yards per game behind an efficient, albeit not explosive, attack now led by Ty Montgomery. Christine Michael, having now been with the team for sufficient time to get the playbook down, also offers a burst and rushing threat the Pack didn't have in the first match up. And, of course, FB Aaron Ripkowski can move the pile and also provide a pass outlet for Rodgers if needed. The Packers offensive line doesn't get the credit it deserves for its incredible protection given to Rodgers, allowing him time to move in and out of the pocket to find his receivers downfield. One of the strategies Dallas used in its October win over the Pack at Lambeau -- and will try to use again today -- was to keep Rodgers in the pocket. There's no secret to the fact that Rodgers is at his most dangerous when he breaks out of the pocket to scramble and find his receivers. The Cowboys frustrated Rodgers and the Packers offense in the first meeting. We'd expect Dallas to apply the same strategy as before and also expect the Packers to make adjustments. One of the biggest adjustments in that regard today will be playing without WR Jordy Nelson who was injured in the game against New York. Luckily, Randall Cobb returned in good form last weekend, Davante Adams is making big plays and undrafted rookie Geronimo Allison is in position to have a breakout game if other receivers are covered. Add another weapon the Pack didn't have in the first match up: TE Jared Cook. Cook's return from injury has coincided a great deal with the Pack's winning streak. Coincidence? We think not. Finally, neither the Packers nor the 'boys turn the ball over much; Rodgers, in particular, has been amazing during the winning streak, with no interceptions vs. the touchdowns thrown. That trend must continue today. So does the need for the Pack to get at least one or two takeaways. The Dallas strategy will be to keep Rodgers on the sideline by running the ball as much as it can to eat the clock and thus play defense by playing great offense.The Packers -- like Dallas -- will put up points, no doubt.

Defenses
Let's just cut to the chase here and say that the Dallas defense ranks higher than the Pack, 14th overall vs. 22nd. In terms of each statistical category, Dallas ranks ahead of the Pack. So given basically a "push" in terms of offenses (for argument sake), shouldn't the nod go to the team with the better defense? You'd think so. But one of the elements which factored heavily into the earlier Dallas win was an inept Packers offense that still hadn't found itself...AND...four turnovers by the Pack. You may be surprised that the Packers actually ranked ahead of the 'boys in terms of season turnover differential. This is particularly the case, as fans know, for the Packers during their winning streak. The Packers tied with several other teams for second in terms of interceptions, with 17. Defensive back Damarious Randall appeared on the injury report yesterday and just how much he's able to play, and at what level, is a concern given the already thin defensive backfield. Defensive coordinator Dom Capers has done a masterful job of cobbling together a defense given the injuries. The Packers will need a pass rush as well as run stuffers today. Veterans Clay Matthews and Julius Peppers need to play at the level they are capable of, that is disrupting the other team. The Packers defense has often given up yardage...big yardage on big plays. As long as touchdowns don't accompany all of those big yards, the Packers are in it. That will have to be the case again today: bend don't break.

The Prediction
We could go on and on, of course. But your head is already spinning, we know. Whether from all the data presented here or pre-game tailgating, we don't know. But either way, let's get to it, shall we?

The Packers will need to do something they really haven't done in the past three weeks, which is get out to a fast start. If they are able to do that, that will go a long way to easing the pressure on the defense to win this game...which, in fact, is something they may need to do anyway: come up with a couple big stops. But forcing Dallas to win behind a rookie QB in his first playoff game is preferable to having to grind it out against trying to stop a running back of Elliott's calibre.

The Packers will need to play their best game of the season on offense, defense and special teams to walk out of Dallas with the win. Luckily for Packer fans, they have been doing just that in recent weeks. They'll do it again today.

We're calling this one Packers 34-31 over Dallas.

Go Pack Go!!!

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2016 NFL Week 17: Packers vs. Lions Preview and Prediction

Happy New Year, Packers fans and those who wish they were! (And, yes, even though the headline says 2016, hopefully you woke up realizing that we are now in the year 2017. Just for a point of reference for those of you who perhaps aren't quite sure right now.) Oh, and in case you were wondering, the Pack beat Minnesota last weekend to set up tonight's division battle. Now that we have that bit of housekeeping taken care of, let's move along, shall we?

The NFL schedule makers really pulled one out of their ying-yangs when they set the final weekend schedule with the Green Bay Packers facing the Detroit Lions, didn't they? Yes, division games have been going on for the last few weeks, but they could have scheduled the lemming-like Minnesota ViQueens or that semi-pro team from Illinois. Instead, the league rolled the dice and set a match between the Pack and the Lions.

Packers and Lions head coaches, Mike McCarthy and Jim Caldwell,
prepare to dance, at least metaphorically, tonight.
Photo by Rick Wood, Milwaukee Journal Sentinel
A Refresher of Sorts
You'll remember at the start of the season that the Packers were one of the odds-on favorites to go to and, in some quarters, win the Super Bowl. They were favored in virtually every game of the season...before the season began, that is. Detroit was projected to be a playoff team by some, perhaps even a division championship contender and maybe even a Super Bowl contender (a stretch, c'mon). But then teams have to play. The Packers, due to a rash of injuries at key positions, the inability of the offense to find an identity by mid-season and that of the defense to stop big plays particularly late in games, found themselves sitting at 4-6 at their low point after four consecutive losses.

As for the Lions, they were one of the early surprises of the season. Behind in seemingly most of their games, they somehow managed eight fourth-quarter comebacks in their nine wins, an NFL record. With the Pack stuck in the mud, the 'Queens fading after key injuries of their own and Da Bearz still sucking as usual, Detroit jumped out to a two-game division lead for a few games. But coupled with their own two-game road losing streak in Weeks 15 and 16 along with the Packers' resurrection and five-game winning streak down the stretch, the Lions now find themselves tied at 9-6 with the Pack going into this final regular season game...although technically, the Packers have the tie-breaker at this point because of their 34-27 September win at Lambeau Field.

Tonight's Game
Contrary to what some surmise, this is not a "winner-take-all" game, although the build-up to it certainly makes one view it that way. And, perhaps, that's the way the teams and fans should look at it. Winning, for either the Packers or Lions (eeeeewwwww!) gives that team the NFC North Division Championship and a guaranteed home playoff game. But even with a loss, it's possible that that team could still grab a wildcard spot depending upon whether Washington wins or loses today. With a Washington loss, both the Packers and Lions can grab a spot in the playoffs regardless of whether they win or lose. But a win is just so much better, don't you think? Especially if it is the sixth win in a row, led by an offense that is really clicking and a defense that, while suspect, can do just enough to keep an opponent from outscoring the offense. We are, of course, talking about the Packers taking this game for the NFC North Division Championship.

The Packers have gotten healthier over the last several games, especially QB Aaron Rodgers, TE Jared Cook and LB Clay Matthews. Yay. WR Randall Cobb is expected to be in uniform tonight but he may not play much or at all as he's still nursing his injury from a few weeks ago. If the Packers do make a playoff run, a healthy Cobb would be an asset. In his stead, the receiving corp may see more play from rookie Geronimo Allison, who is a big target and caught several passes in last week's win against the ViQueens. It appears as if he and Rodgers are starting build a chemistry and that bodes well short and long-term.

The biggest absence for the Packers this game, as it has been all season, is CB Sam Shields. The secondary has really not had anyone step up to come close to replacing him in terms of consistent pass coverage and closing speed ability. Plays have been made in the recent wins, particularly by Ha Ha Clinton-Dix. But neither of the second-year players, Damarious Randall or Quinten Rollins, has lived up to year-two expectations. Randall, by the way, is questionable for tonight's game. If there has been one constant in the secondary, and generally an overlooked one at that, it has been the play of LaDarius Gunter.

The question mark for the Packers tonight and into the playoffs is their secondary. They have made fourth quarters a Pepto Bismol time for Packer fans everywhere most of the season, playing soft and giving up big plays particularly over the middle. Lions QB Matthew Stafford, despite his recently dislocated middle finger on his passing hand, and the Lions generally proving to themselves and others that they can come from behind late to win games, can take this game down to the wire; he's done it before against the Packers and others.

If the Packers don't put up points early -- and throughout the game -- the defensive question mark as the game goes into the fourth quarter becomes more of a concern. You don't want to keep the Lions hanging around, as the saying goes. The Packers should be able to force Stafford into making at least one turnover somewhere during the game and that may be the difference. Getting a turnover or two in games has been key during the Packers' winning streak, and it may be so again tonight.

Conversely, Detroit can also put up points with Stafford and his receiving corp. The running game doesn't count for much at this point, but the Packers will need a consistent pass rush to pressure Stafford into a bad throw or two. If you give him time, he has the arm to make you pay for bad coverage or an ineffective pass rush. The Packers' front seven needs to really bring it tonight.

Defensively, however, the Lions should be able to be exploited by the Packers offense, particularly if Detroit's top defensive back, Darius Slay, is slowed by his hamstring injury. He'll probably try to go and, if so, look for the Packers to test his coverage ability early. Without Slay, Rodgers should be able to take advantage of that secondary. The Lions linebackers are nicked up, too, so that should open up the middle if the Pack decides to spread things around. Based upon recent history, that's a reasonable expectation today.

Also look for RBs Ty Montgomery and Christine Michael to keep the Lions off balance with a solid rushing game. During the Packers stretch run, the balance between the number of rushing plays and pass plays called by McCarthy has been part of the formula. On a fast track of indoor turf, it would be great to see what Christine Michael might be able to do if he gets loose. We think even the Packers coaches are interested in seeing what might transpire in that regard.

The Prediction
We view this as a high-scoring game. The Packers are favored by 3 points at the time of this writing. We see the Pack going up in the first half and then holding on in the fourth quarter for the win. These are the recent trends for both teams. We'll go with that.

We're calling it 38-34 Packers.

Go Pack Go!!!

2016 NFL Week 15: Packers vs. Bears Preview and Prediction

In what might be the coldest meeting ever between the Green Bay Packers and the Chicago Bears in their storied rivalry (think about that for a moment), the Packers look to keep their three-game winning streak going at Soldier Field today and, in the process, get to all-square in terms of wins with Da Bearz. Not wins this season, of course. Overall wins. That would be 94 each. Chicago has held the edge for the last 83 years. That ends today.

It won't be easy given the cold and the wind. The air temperature is supposed to be somewhere around zero...a degree or two either way, really, at this stage of things does it even matter? Nope. Throw in what are expected to be wind gusts of 20 to 30 mph coming off Lake Michigan and the wind chill will feel like -30.

Much of the Packers' success today against Chicago will depend
upon how long QB Aaron Rodgers can stay on the field.
Photo by Mark Hoffman, Milwaukee Journal Sentinel
While these conditions are tough on one and all, they are especially so for a quarterback nursing both hamstring and calf injuries. That would be Packers QB Aaron Rodgers. Rodgers had essentially no practice this week as the choice was made to help his body recover as much as possible. But as a sign of possible uncertainty as to how much he might be able to go today -- and, even though listed as questionable on the injury report, make no mistake: Rodgers will play -- the Packers elevated QB Joe Callahan to the active roster. Brett Hundley is the backup to Rodgers. But if something were to happen to him? So, Callahan gets activated and LB Carl Bradford is released to make room.

There are many angles to today's game. But as game time fast approaches (an hour to game time!), we need to get onto the prediction. So here it is...

The Prediction
The Packers are favored by either 4-1/2 or 5-1/2 points depending upon what source you are looking at. Total-points of 38-1/2, the lowest of the weekend, means the pundits are factoring in the weather, as they should. The Packers are finding their game just in time. As long as they play the way they have the last few weeks -- last week in particular -- the Packers should win this game. But adjustments will need to be made for the cold and wind. That means more reliance, one would imagine, on the running game. Da Bearz have a legitimate running back in rookie Jordan Howard out of Indiana. The Packers? Well, we have a receiver-turned-running-back in Ty Montgomery, journeyman running back Christine Michael and FB Aaron Ripowski. Advantage, one would imagine, Chicago in this aspect of the game. But in a quarterback match up between Aaron Rodgers and Matt Barkley...c'mon...it's Rodgers...as long as he can stay on the field, of course. The Pack's defense is coming into form, finally, and that means good things today. A few turnovers should be there for the taking.

Alright, alright (and a third alright for any Matthew McConaughey fans out there), to the prediction...

We're calling it 24-13 Packers.

Go Pack Go!!!

2016 NFL Week 13: Packers vs. Texans Preview and Prediction

The 6-5 Houston Texans make their way to what will likely be a snowy Lambeau Field today to take on the 5-6 Green Bay Packers. What to expect...other than the questionable weather, that is? Let's keep this short and sweet, shall we? Or, at least, short. Maybe.

For the first time perhaps in a season-and-a-half, the Packers put together a complete game in all three phases of the game -- offense, defense and special teams -- in their win this past week at Philadelphia. That was the good news. The bad news, or concerning news anyway, is that QB Aaron Rodgers aggravated a hamstring which will likely limit his mobility and LB Clay Matthews sustained a shoulder injury on a wicked blindside block by former Packer Allen Barbre. Both have been listed as questionable for today...but do we really believe they aren't going to play? Not a chance.

With their season on the line now in literally every game, the Packers can't afford to regress to the style of play that they exhibited during their four-game losing streak. Instead, each game must be a viewed as a one-game season. Win. And win. And win. Etc. That's the Pack's only chance of making it into the playoffs: to win the NFC North, probably in a play-for-it-all game on New Year's Day at Detroit, the current division leader.

Packers undrafted rookie cornerback Makinton Dorleant
was activated off injured reserve Saturday and may see action today.
Photo by Mark Hoffman/Milwaukee Journal Sentinel
While the weather conditions today, along with Rodgers' limited mobility, may affect the passing game, it's possible we might see a bit more of recently-signed running back Christine Michael. Head coach Mike McCarthy has been saying that they've been exposing him to more and more of the packages and the weather might just present an opportunity for this "explosive" back (Jordy Nelson's words, when asked to describe what Michael looks like during practice) to help the Packers grind out a victory.

One plus note for the Pack's offense comes courtesy of Houston today: DE Jadeveon Clowney was ruled out by the team because of elbow/wrist injuries. That will make David Bakhtiari's and Brian Buluga's lives so much better; Clowney, when he is not injured and is motivated, can cause havoc for an offense. But...not today. And, of course, Wisconsin's own J.J. Watt is nowhere to be found because of his early season injury. The presence of those two would have really helped the Texans in this game today.

That's not to say Houston's defense can't hold it's own. As Pete Dougherty notes in the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel's preview of the game, "Houston has the NFL's fifth-rated defense...". They have a good pass rush, although not as great without Clowney. The have good linebackers. But given time, Rodgers should be able to exploit enough gaps in the defense to keep moving the ball and put points on the board.

The Pack's own defense, after disastrous outings during the losing streak, will need to stop Lamar Miller, the NFL’s fifth-leading rusher. They will also need to put pressure on the struggling QB Brock Osweiler. If they do so, the possibility for multiple turnovers is there.

The Prediction
The Packers are currently favored by 6-1/2 points at the time of this writing. That seems like a lot given that the Texans currently have a slightly better record than the Pack. While the weather factor should skew to the Packers favor, it will be the first time this team has had to face wintery weather conditions, too. If it impacts the Packers' passing game, the game could become a bit of a toss-up as Houston's running game is better than the Packers.

Still, we have to believe that an Aaron Rodgers-led team is better than a Brock Osweiler-led team.

We're calling it 27-20 Packers.

Go Pack Go!!!

2016 NFL Week 12: Packers vs. Eagles Preview and Prediction

The Green Bay Packers find themselves in Philadelphia tonight for the last of the team's three consecutive games on the road. It hasn't been pretty so far. Actually, it hasn't been pretty for much of the season, whether at home or on the road.

Will things change tonight? We'd like to think so, although the Packers are 1-4 on the road this season which doesn't exactly give one confidence in a positive outcome. Still, the Eagles are sitting at 5-5 with a rookie quarterback who has settled down since his lights-out performance earlier in the season. This is another team that the Packers, on a number of levels, should be able to beat. But that's arguably been true the last two games and we know how those games turned out.

Packers hope to have DB Damarious Randall back after missing 6 games.
Photo by Dan Powers/USA TODAY NETWORK-Wisconsin
The problems for the Packers are well-documented by now: a decimated secondary that is easy to exploit with no pass rush (which has become a puzzling development in its own right), slow starts by the offense that puts the sieve-like defense on the field more often than we'd like, missed opportunities by skill players, injuries all over the place, no running game, etc., etc. Toss in that some speculate that head coach Mike McCarthy has lost his team while others suggest its time for Ted Thompson to go because of his lack of success in recent drafts and lack of participation in free agency. Yowza! Problems galore.

Counter this existential angst with QB Aaron Rodgers' proclamation that he thinks the team can "run the table" by winning out and still making the playoffs. Whatever is going on behind closed locker room doors, players and coaches publicly believe the Pack is just a play or so away from turning around this disaster of a season.

And, truth be told, if they don't do it tonight we can start looking to next season because this one will be effectively done.

Can the addition of RB Christine Michael along with James Starks provide enough of a running threat to keep Philly from playing only the pass? We don't know. He played well during his stint in Seattle, scoring 6 TDs while there...which, if anyone is keeping track, is 6 more TDs than all the Packers running backs combined have scored this season. Yes, seriously.

With the season on the line for the Pack, what can we expect? Hard to say. And yet, that's we have to do in terms of making a prediction.

The Prediction

The Eagles, despite being arguably no better than the Packers, are undefeated at home this season, which is not something we can say about the Packers. This is a tough one to call as the Pack has shown us nothing in recent memory to believe they can pick themselves up off the turf and actually turn in a winning performance. And yet...something gives me the feeling that they will be able to do just enough to pull off the win. Of course, that feeling could just still be the indigestion from all the Thanksgiving leftovers. A Packers' win will, by the way, also be an upset because Philly is favored by 4 points as of the time of this posting.

We're calling it...27-24 Packers.

Go Pack Go!!!

NFL 2016 Week 11: Packers vs. Washington Preview and Prediction

The Green Bay Packers take on Washington in a little more than an hour from this writing. Will the Pack get back to .500 (5-5) with a win? Or will another wheel fall off and see the Packers go to 4-6 on the season. The oddsmakers are projecting the latter, with the Pack being a 3-point underdog.

Among Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel sports writers making projections, three out of four picked Washington.

How are you feeling, Packer fans?

Packers announcer (and Packers Hall of Fame member) Larry McCarren says in his scouting report that he likes the Washington team he sees. He notes they are a better team than the one the Pack defeated last year during their playoff run. They have a decent quarterback in Kirk Cousins, some very good receivers and tight ends who can stretch the field (oh-oh) and a servicable pass rush on defense. McCarren's scouting report also noted that Washington does leave some openings over the middle and in the defensive backfield. So if Aaron Rodgers is able to find open receivers -- a problem for the Packers in recent games, true -- the Packers should be able to hold up in the scoring department. Getting TE Jared Cook back for some plays, as well as newly-acquired running back Christine Michael in the mix in a limited way, may provide a few tools for Rodgers that he hasn't had available in a while.

The big question mark, though, as it has been the last three games, is the Packers defense. Giving up the huge point totals, and with slow starts to boot, has killed this team in each of those games. If that doesn't change tonight, there is not much chance the Pack will come out on top given what we've been witnessing. The defense should get a boost from the suspected return of Clay Matthews. The Packers also signed LB Carl Bradford off the practice squad, releasing TE Justin Perillo to make room on the roster, but if Bradford has to see extended duty tonight you know things are not going well.

OLB Clay Matthews is expected to return
to action tonight against Washington.
Photo by Rick Wood, Milwaukee Journal Sentinel
The Prediction
The Packers need this game to stay one game back of both Detroit and Minnesota who each won today and are now 6-4 on the season. They also need this game to restore some of their confidence, individually and collectively. Can they? We hope so. Will they? We don't think so.

Regrettably, we're calling this game 31-24 in favor of Washington.

That doesn't stop us, though, from saying...Go Pack Go!!!