Sunday, September 29, 2024

2024 NFL Week 4: Packers vs Vikings Preview & Prediction

To the surprise of many, including Packers fans, the Pack find themselves at 2-1 after 2 amazing wins at home and on the road with backup QB Malik Willis at the helm in place of the injured Jordan Love. They've done it with creative game-planning by head coach Matt LaFleur and staff, controlled and well-executed play by Willis and the offense, and — especially last weekend vs. the Titans — a defense that dominated.

That leaves us in a game today vs. the 3-0 ViQueens at Lambeau and a chance, with a win, to actually be atop the NFC North about a quarter of the way into season. Who would have imagined it when Love went down in the closing seconds of that game against the Eagles in Brazil? Even without Love, the Packers have demonstrated they can win in a number of ways. Rushing, through the air, getting takeaways and sacking the opposing QB. All of those qualities will need to once again be on display today.

Green Bay Packers tight end Tucker Kraft stiff-arms Minnesota Vikings cornerback Akayleb Evans last season.

Packers TE Tucker Kraft came up big against Minnesota last season and will need another big game today.

(Photo by Mark Hoffman/Milwaukee Journal Sentinel)

The Preview

On offense, Minnesota's QB, veteran Sam Darnold, is having a good season to date. Rookie QB J.J. McCarthy, was supposed to be the starter this season, but an injury put that plan hold. Enter Darnold who is seizing his opportunity to basically resurrect his career. It helps when you have a receiver such as Justin Jefferson and an RB such as long-time Packers fave Aaron Jones among your weapons. But isn't it amazing what a change of team scenery and system can do (witness Malik Willis here, as well)?

Add to this, a stout defense run by Minnesota defensive coordinator Brian Flores and the challenges for opposing teams are many.

But guess what? The Packers present a myriad of problems for their opponents, too, regardless of who is behind center we now know. Today, with Jordan Love expected to play for the first time since sustaining his MCL sprain in the opener, it's unknown how the injury will limit his mobility and affect the offensive scheme. Certainly Love will not be 100 percent. So what will that look like? We'll know in a few hours. Still, it is good to know that if he is ineffective or unable to complete the game that Willis can step in and the Packers will not have an automatic loss as a result.

The key to Love's effectiveness today, limited as it may be, will be the offensive line's ability to keep him clean in the pocket. And to do so without penalties which has been a real problem throughout the first 3 games. Lookin' at you, Rasheed Walker. A-hem.

The 'Queens will no doubt dial up blitzes early to test the protection and Love's mobility. That's where Packers TE Tucker Kraft played such a role last season in the game at Minnesota where he helped beat the blitzes both blocking and catching. Once again, LaFleur has had all week to game-plan for Love's abilities to beat the defense. This will really be a chess match on both sides of the ball.

Of course, the Aaron Jones vs. Josh Jacobs subscript will also be part of today's story. Nobody wanted to see Jones leave the Packers in the offseason. He's beloved in Packerland. But Jacobs has certainly stepped in admirably in terms of making up the running yards. (So has Emanuel Wilson, lest we forget, in relief.) Who will wind up making the difference in the game? Have to wait to see.

Defensively, the Packers will be challenged to cover WR Justin Jefferson and the other receivers without Jaire Alexander and Carrington Valentine in the defensive backfield who are both out for this game. Next man up, as the saying goes. The new 4-3 scheme seems to be starting to pay off with the ability to pressure the QB without constant blitzing. Darnold is not a scrambler so if the front can get to him that can create opportunities for takeaways downfield.

Another curious side note to this game is that it will be rookie kicker vs. rookie kicker. Minnesota has Will Reichard who is 5 for 5 on his FG attempts and 10 for 10 on his PATs. Packer fans know all too well that our rookie kicker, Brayden Narveson, seems so far to be missing one kick per game; the miss last week was wiped out by a penalty on the Titans. We should note, though, that all Reichard's field goals have been indoors at the 'Queens home stadium; today will be his first attempts outdoors, although the weather forecast this early in the season is certainly quite favorable from that standpoint. So if the game is tight and it comes down to a kick, who do you put your money on? Oy.

The Prediction

With about an hour to game time, the Packers are listed as 2-1/2 point favorites. Seems about right. We think it will be a tight game, as these games often are.

We're calling it Packers 24 - ViQueens 23.

Go Pack Go!!!