Saturday, September 21, 2024

2024 NFL Week 3: Packers vs Titans: Preview & Prediction

 A brief review of last week's win over the Colts: we picked the upset.

Moving on...

Just kidding. A bit more.

The big variable in last week's game, of course, was the big unknown: how young backup QB and relatively new Green Bay Packer Malik Willis would do starting in place of injured QB Jordan Love. We knew the game plan by head coach Matt LaFleur would be changed. Boy, was it. Basically, the game plan was run. And run. And run. And the Packers did. Successfully. And the few times they asked Willis to pass, they were successful, too. Yay. "Stealing" a win some would say. We may have put it that way, too, in our preview and prediction. Still, a win to put the Pack at 1-1 as they had to Tennessee to take on the Titans.

Now, let's look at that game.

The Preview

New starting RB Josh Jacobs had a big week against the Colts. The Packers will need another big week from him against the Titans to stay in — and win — the game.

(Photo by Ken Blaze-USA TODAY Sports)

While it was a certainty last week that QB Jordan Love was out for the game against the Colts, with three days of limited practice this week, Love's status will be determined about 90 minutes before game time, according to head coach Matt LaFleur. Still, like last week, the Packers have once again elevated backup QB Sean Clifford from the practice squad to the active roster for this game. That may very well be an indicator that Love will once again be unavailable for the game vs. the Titans. We'd bet on that too.

While Willis was an unknown for the Packers last week, he performed well. Better than expected for many fans, no doubt. But Willis is not an unknown for Tennessee, the team which drafted him several years ago and from which he was traded at the end of training camp. The Titans know his pros and cons and obviously decided to part ways with him. After one game with the Packers, we're glad with their decision.

But that raises the question: what kind of game plan will LaFleur devise against a team and defense that (1) knows the Packers will once again predominately run the ball and (2) knows Willis' tendencies? For example (and as was on display last week), a propensity to throw to the right. With limited opportunities to throw, those tendencies become amplified. And predictable to defend. If we know this, so does LaFleur. We would expect him to devise additional wrinkles to exploit the Titans' defense in ways that they don't expect.

One of those ways may be to indeed throw more controlled passes. And perhaps even a few of those will be downfield. We still haven't seen the emergence of WR Christian Watson this season and his ability to stretch the defense — at least as a threat if not a reality — could well factor into Sunday's game, as will the abilities of the other receivers and tight ends to make plays when their numbers are called.

Another big day for RB Josh Jacobs and the O-line is also needed. The Titans have a decent defensive front so running will be a challenge. But the same was said about the Eagles in the first game and the Packers were able to run well against them. The line knows, according to various interviews, that if Willis is the QB they will need to continue their strong run-blocking. They also know, and have said, that if Love is able to play that they will have to make sure he "stays clean", i.e., they can't let him get hit when he's in the pocket.

The Packers defense will need to generate takeaways against the Titans offense. As Milwaukee Journal Sentinel sport journalist Ryan Wood notes in his preview of the game: "Titans quarterback Will Levis is erratic, not a threat to make plays with his legs, and plays behind an offensive line that has allowed seven sacks in two games." If the Packers defensive front can generate pressure, that will make a huge difference in the game's outcome.

The Prediction

As was the case last week, the Packers are at the time of this writing 3-point underdogs against the Titans. And as was the case last week, we're going to pick the Packers. Shocker, we know. But whereas last weekend the pick was more heart than head, this weekend we think there's enough evidence on both sides to say the Pack will emerge with a win whether or not Love is able to play. In fact, we hope the Pack decides to rest Love another week for the division game back at Lambeau against the ViQueens.

We're taking the Packers 24 - Titans 20.

Go Pack Go!!!