Sunday, December 15, 2024

2024 NFL Week 15: Packers vs. Seahawks Preview & Prediction

Before getting into a look at tonight's game in Seattle, a quick reflection on the Week 14 Thursday night game in Detroit: dang it!

Admittedly, it was a great game to watch, for sure, between two of the NFL's heavyweights. It definitely had the feel of a "Whoever has the ball last..." type game, didn't it? And that's how it went. Close. But the "W", regrettably, went to the Lions. They just keep finding ways to win...a mark of a very good team. Kudos to them. We would note, however, that we were nearly spot on on our final score prediction, albeit with the teams reversed. Again, close. But not good enough.

Anyway, the Packers have had an extended mini-bye to prepare for this road game against the Seahawks. Let's have a closer look.

A blast from the past: The "Fail Mary" at the end of the Packers-Seahawks game on Sept. 24, 2012.Note the contradictory signs from the two officials standing right on top of the play. For more details, please see the notes following the Prediction section of this post.
(Photo by Rick Wood / Milwaukee Journal Sentinel)

The Preview

Seattle has been the site of some horrible memories for the Packers and their fans over the years (see above photo and related notes below for just one such occasion). The stadium is one of the loudest in football, the fans are rabid, and, for whatever reason, Seattle has at times seemed to be a black hole for Packers' Super Bowl aspirations. Hopefully, not tonight.

But the Seahawks are coming in on a roll having won their last four games and sit atop, barely, the rather so-so NFC West at 8-5. QB Geno Smith has been a successful reclamation project with an excellent running game to support him and some outstanding receivers to which to throw. But, Seattle's top back — Kenneth Walker III — is listed as doubtful for this game, which would certainly be to the Packers advantage. He did not practice all week after sitting out Seattle's win at Arizona with a calf injury. If Walker doesn't play, second-year player Zach Charbonnet, coming off his best game, will get the start. And like every team at this point in the season, the Seahawks have some other players with various injuries, but Walker is the biggest name to keep an eye on at game time.

Seattle's defense? More than capable. What more to say?

For the Packers, the team will yet once again be without CB Jaire Alexander who, after practicing fully on Wednesday and Thursday did not practice on Friday. A theme for the season in regard to Alexander. TE Luke Musgrave will also once again not be on the field. S Javon Bullard is also listed as out. The good news is that WR Romeo Doubs has cleared concussion protocol and will be available, giving QB Jordan Love another one of his favorite receivers.

As has been the case throughout the season, especially as head coach Matt LaFleur has been able to see what he's got offensively, and after Love is now seemingly fully recovered from his early-season lower body injuries, the Packers will need to run first and throw second. They will need to get RB Josh Jacobs going early and often to allow Love to exploit the air game with his plethora of more-than-capable receivers, including TE Tucker Kraft, of course.

We also assume that the Packers are able to get some pressure on Smith tonight. QB pressure has been hit or miss for the Packers defense all season and it's about time that things get more consistent. We think you'll agree. Case in point: Smith completed 80% of his passes in his last game against the Cardinals, if memory serves (and if not, sorry). Given time, Smith, as the season has gone on, can be as good as anyone. The Pack can't let him sit back in the pocket and nickel-and-dime things down the field.

And some way, somehow, the Packers need to do a far better job getting coverage over the middle than they have done in recent weeks. That element of the pass defense has been abysmal, let's be honest. Yes, missing Alexander has been a part of that. But someone — anyone! — needs to step up...either on the defensive line to generate pressure or over the middle to upset routes and not let receivers run wide open. Aaargghhh! 

Combine what we expect to be another solid offensive game plan from LaFleur with a hopefully amped up Packers pass rush and this all works toward bringing a "W" back to Green Bay on the red eye flight tonight.

The Prediction

It seem as if we may have tipped our hand in the preceding sentence. Ah, well. The Packers are favored by 2-1/2 points at the time of this writing. The over-under is currently set at 46-1/2 points.

This is one of those games which could go either way...but not in the same sense as we felt about the last game vs. Detroit. This is a game where the Seahawks are playing for their playoff lives at home and to stay atop their division. The Packers are playing for playoff seeding position, currently sitting at the sixth seed. Picking up a win here, with the Saints coming to Green Bay next weekend, followed by a trip to take on the ViQueens, and finally closing out the regular season at home against Da Bearz, would put the Pack in very good stead for the playoff scenario and, dare we say, perhaps with a 12-5 record. (We should note that in our preseason preview and prediction, we had the Packers at 8-5 at this stage of this season, so the actual current record of 9-4 allows a bit of a margin of error...although we hope it's not needed!)

We're calling this game Packers 34 - Seahawks 24.

Go Pack Go!!!
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

* Notes on the "Fail Mary" game referenced in the earlier photo, courtesy of Wikipedia...

"The Fail Mary, also known as the Inaccurate Reception or the Intertouchdownception, was a play in the National Football League (NFL) game played between the Green Bay Packers and Seattle Seahawks on September 24, 2012, at CenturyLink Field in Seattle, Washington. In a nationally televised game on ESPN's Monday Night Football, the Seahawks defeated the Packers, 14–12, in controversial fashion.

On the final play of the tightly contested game, Seattle rookie quarterback Russell Wilson threw a Hail Mary pass into the end zone intended for wide receiver Golden Tate. Both Tate and Packers defender M.D. Jennings got their hands on the ball while both players were still in the air and attempting to gain possession. The two officials near the play initially gave separate signals of touchdown and touchback, before ruling the players had simultaneous possession, resulting in a Seahawks game-winning touchdown. Prior to the catch, Tate shoved Packers cornerback Sam Shields with both hands, which the NFL later acknowledged should have drawn an offensive pass interference penalty that would have negated the touchdown and resulted in a Packers victory. The lack of a pass interference penalty and the ruling of a touchdown via simultaneous catch were widely questioned in the aftermath of the game, drawing comments from the game's announcers, NFL players, and the media. The NFL subsequently released a statement defending the touchdown ruling, while conceding that offensive pass interference did occur, which would have resulted in a Packers win.

The controversial ending followed weeks of criticism regarding the quality of officiating by replacement officials employed by the NFL during the 2012 NFL referee lockout. Two days after the game, the NFL and the NFL Referees Association (NFLRA) announced that they had reached an agreement to end the lockout. NFL commissioner Roger Goodell acknowledged that the negative attention the game drew to the referee situation was an impetus for ending the labor dispute."

Thursday, December 05, 2024

2024 NFL Week 14: Packers vs. Lions Preview & Prediction

Happy football Thursday once again, Packer fans! Yes, a bit of an oddity to be doing back-to-back Thursday game previews and predictions (last time was 2015). But here we are. Last week was the Thanksgiving evening game, of course, at Lambeau Field vs. the Miami Dolphins. Seems so long ago now, doesn't it? It was a great way to cap off our Turkey Day (plus whomping the Sunday before our heretofore kryptonite by the largest margin ever in the long-standing series against the Niners: 28 points! Holy California roll, Batman!) The post-game six-legged turducken feast, prepared by none other than Packers and NFL Hall of Famer, LeRoy Butler, was presented to QB Jordan Love, RB Josh Jacobs, and LB Isaiah McDuffie. Love received 2 of the legs as Butler reminded the viewing audience that Love was inexplicably stiffed on that front after last year's win at Detroit. It was a beautiful moment, indeed.

Anyway, and not coincidentally, the Packers find themselves back in Detroit tonight to play the Lions at Ford Field. Which leads us to our preview. Let's begin ...

The 2024 Packers will need to replicate the power and passion of the 1964 Green Bay team, epitomized by FB Jim Taylor (airborne!) and QB Bart Starr shown here against the Lions, in order to bring a win over the Lions back to Green Bay tonight.
(Photo via Milwaukee Journal Sentinel archive)


The Preview

In terms of a broad overview, the 9-3 Packers are ascending, the 11-1 Lions — despite the record — seem to be descending a bit. That's a qualified "descending", by the way, in case anyone misunderstands. As the saying goes, sometimes it's not who you play, it's when you play them. For the Packers, they are catching the Lions at the best possible time from their perspective: Detroit is banged up and missing starters, particularly on defense. That's the "descending" part right now. 

Detroit's offense — the highest scoring offense in the league — is mostly in tact ... and must be accounted for, particularly their running backs and receivers. If the Packers defense allow Detroit's running game to take charge, it will likely be a long night. QB Jared Goff is having another great season, and he has great receivers to throw to. When given protection, he is one of the best pocket-passers in the league today. But rattle him and get him out of the pocket, advantage Packers ... that has to be part of the Pack's defensive objectives for this game. Summing up: contain Detroit's running game, cover the receivers (especially over the middle, a-hem), and get pressure on Goff.

The Packers come in probably as healthy as they have been all season, albeit with CB Jaire Alexander (knee), WR Romeo Doubs (concussion), LB Edgerrin Cooper (hamstring), and CB Corey Ballentine (knee) all ruled out for tonight's game. The Packers have seemingly been playing more games without Alexander this season than with him, so the defense has been able to adapt. Better with him than without him, but availability is what it is. And no doubt head coach Matt LaFleur would prefer to be able to game plan with Doubs available in the passing game, but ... not. Thankfully, the Pack's corps of wide receivers is not only deep but good.

The key for the Pack's offense, as it has been increasingly as the season has progressed, is the success of the running game, particularly having RB Josh Jacobs dominate. If he's able to do what he's done over several weeks — say, carrying the ball 20-25 times and rushing for 100 yards or more — that will go a long way to seeing the Pack come away on top tonight. QB Jordan Love will also need time to find his receivers or make quick decisions and take off with the ball if pressured; better the latter than trying to force a throw and generate a turnover. Having no turnovers tonight, and getting a takeaway or two by the defense or special teams, can help secure the win.

The question for the Packers, as it has been most of the season, is what defense will show up tonight. The D has been playing really well, of late, and that trend has to continue tonight. Now, it's well known that Detroit is a physical team. The Packers will need to match that physicality on both sides of the ball. Let Detroit get rolling and it's then probably going to be a shootout type game ... perhaps even one of those last possession type games.

The Prediction

The Lions are 3-1/2 point favorites at the time of this writing with the over-under currently sitting at 51-1/2 points; so the oddsmakers are looking for a lot of offense tonight. The Packers lost the first outing at Lambeau Field, but they are now a more complete team than they were then. The game is indoors, so weather is not a factor. The Lions are wounded, the Packers relatively healthy. The Packers need this win to stay in the hunt for the NFC North title and are looking for revenge for that earlier loss.

It's not who you play, it's when you play them. Yup.

We're calling this game Packers 34 - Lions 30.

Go Pack Go!!!

Thursday, November 28, 2024

2024 NFL Week 13: Packers vs. Dolphins Thanksgiving Day Preview & Prediction

Happy Thanksgiving, Packer fans! Yes, we have much to be thankful for this day. And always. For starters, we have our breath. That's huge, right? After that, family, friends, being fans (and perhaps being owner-shareholders) of the most legendary franchise in the NFL: our Green Bay Packers. Amen.

Looking back to just a few days ago, we can also be thankful that the Pack finally did to the 49ers what the Niners have typically done to the Packers: beat them. And they did so in style, winning 38-10, with the largest margin of victory — 28 points! — in the long history of the match-up. Yay!

The Pack rode RB Josh Jacobs and his three TDs to the victory ... which may have even been put away before halftime had WR Christian Watson not dropped a 50+-yard surefire TD pass from QB Jordan Love. Watson! Frustrating. He can make some extraordinary catches, flashing inherent talent as he did the week prior against Da Bearz. And then he has these inexcusable drops. Still, among the remarkable receivers on this Packers squad, he remains really the only one that can stretch the field as quickly as he does. So have to keep going to him. No surprise there. Anyway ...

Packers QB Jordan Love launches a long ball in the game last Sunday vs. the 49ers. Can we expect a few more long balls tonight vs. the Dolphins? Stay tuned ...
(Photo via the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel)


The Preview

As a result of the win this past Sunday, the Packers are now 8-3 going into this evening's Turkey Day game vs. the 5-6 Miami Dolphins at a reasonably cold (by Wisconsin standards ... or extremely cold by Miami standards) Lambeau Field. Which, in most divisions in the NFL would put the Pack in first place. But this season, the Pack still finds themselves behind the Lions and the ViQueens in the NFC North. Just have to keep on winning and the rest will take care of itself, i.e., playoff seeding. More on that as the season moves along to its final six games.

As for tonight's game, the temperature will be about 26 degrees at kickoff. Miami is 0-12, including playoffs, when the temperature is below 40 degrees. That should obviously play in the Packers favor. But as a few pundits have pointed out, that would typically be the case ... except for the fact that the Dolphins have a hot young QB by the name of Tua Tagovailoa. After yet again returning following what seems like his 100th concussion, Miami has gone 3-2, winning their last three games. On Sunday vs. the Patriots, Tua was 29 for 40 for 317 yards including four touchdowns; he was named AFC Offensive Player of the Week for his performance.

Tua has averaged between 28 and 40 pass attempts in each of his games back. Yeah, he wants to throw the ball. A lot. Will the cold affect his passing? Have to wait to see. Believe we saw somewhere that his hand size is actually pretty close to that of Aaron Rodgers which, if the case, means he should not have a problem hanging on to the ball. Although, as most cold-weather folks know, below-freezing cold can make the ol' pigskin slick. And if one is not used to that there can be issues both throwing and hanging on to the ball.

Of course, another reason he likes to throw a lot is that he has great targets to throw to: Odell Beckham Jr., Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle and Malik Washington. Miami is averaging 29 points per game with Tua at QB; the Packers are averaging 26.2 points this season.

Both teams will be missing a few key pieces. For the Dolphins, they will be without CB Kendall Fuller and LB Anthony Walker Jr. The Packers, unfortunately, will be without CB Jaire Alexander (once again), LB Edgerrin Cooper and WR Romeo Doubs. The Packers seem to know how to cover these gaps.

This will be an interesting game to see how the Packers attack the Miami defense and how the Green Bay defense defends against a dangerous passing QB. Can the Pack generate a consistent pass rush? (Tua doesn't run often, so getting to him in the pocket will be key to a win.) Can the defense cover some very good receivers on what projects to be a slick field at times? Can they get some takeaways on this cold evening? With a so-so rushing attack, can Miami do enough to keep the Packers defense guessing? Many questions, with the answers to play out soon.

The Prediction

This is a game that should go the Packers way: at home, on a cold evening, with most of the team's weapons on hand and both the offense and defense seemingly starting to click and play complementary football. But as we have seen all season long — and not just watching the Packers — there really are very few gimmee type games in the NFL this season.

The Packers are favored by 3-1/2 points at the time of this writing, with the over-under set at 47-1/2. Most pundits are seen the game as a close one and going with the "under".

We see the Packers winning this one. They dominated a beat-up San Francisco team four days ago. While not exactly facing the same swarm of injuries as the Niners, we are hoping the conditions tonight play out in the Packers favor and against Miami as has historically been the case.

We're calling it Packers 31 - Dolphins 20.

GO PACK GO!!!

Gobble gobble ....

Sunday, November 24, 2024

2024 NFL Week 12: Packers vs 49ers Preview & Prediction

Happy Football Sunday, Packer fans! Today, we have the Pack playing their West Coast kryptonite team, the San Francisco (more accurately, Santa Clarita) 49ers. At least this game is in Lambeau Field. Finally. More about this game in a second.

But we do have to first briefly take a look back at the win vs. Da Bearz in Chicago last weekend. Yowzers. That certainly was not the game we, most others, or apparently the Packers coaching staff saw coming. Shouldn't have been as close as a 20-19 last-second blocked field goal. In fact, in our preview for that game we boldly proclaimed that it would not come down to a field goal to decide the game. It did. Eeesh. But at least the Packers were on the right side of that block.

The Pack once again left points on the field in the red zone, a real nemesis for the offense in many games so far this season. That has to change. And the defense certainly was not prepared for Bearz rookie QB Caleb Williams to do as much running as he did. Not really a great game for the D, or for the adjustments during the game by the defensive coordinator for that matter.

But a win is a win no matter how ugly it may seem. A 7-3 record at this point ... not all bad. And today we take on the NFC West's last place 5-5 49ers. Let's take a look at that, shall we?

The Packers need to see an uptick in production from WR Dontayvion Wicks who so far hasn't lived up to expectations for this season. Today would be a good day for him to start clicking.
(Photo by Mark Hoffman/Milwaukee Journal Sentinel)


Preview

Several pluses for the Packers going into this game: Jordan Love is looking healthy, the run game spearheaded by Josh Jacobs is game-changing, the "no-number-one" wide receiving corps is arguably the deepest in the NFL where any wideout or tight end (kudos to Tucker Kraft) can make a play at any time, the defense may bend but hasn't really broken all that often ... AND ... the Niners starting QB Brock Purdy and DE Nick Bosa have been ruled out for this game due to injuries. That's huge.

A downside for the Packers is that, yet again, CB Jaire Alexander is out for the game, as is LB Edgerrin Cooper. Both put a dent in the defense but the absence of Alexander is certainly the bigger hit and continues to be a long-term concern.

Of course, San Fran still has plenty of weapons to rely upon. They are the defending NFC champion, of course. But they have been off their game throughout the season. Still, they have to this point, despite their record, put up the same exact number of points as have the Packers: 250. But they have given up 9 points more overall to opposing teams than have the Packers. 

Will any of that matter today? Well, if the Packers past history with backup quarterbacks plays out once again today, the Niners could stick around. Or even win when everything says they shouldn't. And if the Packers defense lets RB Christian McCaffrey get rolling in and out of the backfield, it could be a long day. Even without Bosa causing havoc for the Pack's offense, head coach Matt LaFleur's game plan must also account for LB Fred Warner who can become a one-man wrecking crew if left unchecked.

And let's not forget: SF head coach Kyle Shanahan's record vs. Matt LaFleur is 4-2 (including going 3-0 in the playoffs) if memory serves. Trivia for you: since 2001, long before either coach was at the helm of their respective teams, the Packers haven’t defeated San Francisco in the postseason, going 0-5 over that time. Crikey.

Time to start writing a new story. Yes, it's not the playoffs. But it is a regular season home game against the team that has ended several promising seasons for the Packers before the Super Bowl.

It would be a great time for Love to have his first interception-free game of the season, for receivers to not have untimely drops, for Jacobs to continue tearing up defenses, for the defense to resume its takeaways propensity, and Packers field goals to be made without exception. Let us pray ... 

Prediction

The Packers are set as 5-point favorites as of the time of this writing. And seemingly most pundits are predicting the Pack to win. Both of those things make me nervous. Toss in facing a backup QB ... what lines up on paper isn't always what takes place on the field.

Still, this is a game the Packers should win given everything, setting up an at-home Thanksgiving eve game vs. the Dolphins. Imagine being 9-3 after that game! But that record starts today by going 8-3.

We're calling it Packers 27 - 49ers 23.

Go Pack Go!!!

Sunday, November 17, 2024

2024 NFL Week 11: Packers vs Bears Preview & Prediction

Coming off the Packers Week 10 Bye, it's now that most special time of the year: Bears Week. Or, more accurately, it has been Bears Week all week, hasn't it? Now, we are on the cusp of the first of the two 2024 regular season games against that NFC North Division rival from south of the (Wisconsin) border: Da Bearz. Eeewww. We know. It is truly the longest-standing rivalry in the NFL, although it may not have felt like it for Chicago fans as Packers head coach Matt LaFleur hasn't yet lost to Da Bearz in his tenure in Green Bay: 10 straight wins. Will that streak continue today? More on that in a bit.

So the Packers have had a chance to get rested, especially one Jordan Love, i.e., the starting quarterback for the Packers. According to him, he stated in interviews he is probably as close to 100 percent as he has been since the opening game where he sustained the MCL sprain in his left knee. After being sidelined with that for two games, as we know, he then sustained a groin injury that has hindered his mobility and accuracy. One could say it has forced him, in his mind, to try to make plays where he shouldn't; i.e., some ill-decided throws which turned into interceptions and points for the opponents. Hopefully, with his body more right his head will be more right as well in his decision-making. The Packers need Love to be more like the second-half of last season Love than the first. That can start today against Da Bearz.

Oh, and during the downtime, Packers GM Brian Gutekunst traded away longtime veteran DE Preston Smith, ostensibly to give some of the younger players more playing time. To be fair, Smith's playing time and impact have been on the downturn this season. So...it was time. Thank you for your service, Mr. Smith. As some pundits speculate, the coaches et al must be seeing something on the part of the young defensive linemen that lead them to conclude they will be just fine moving on from Smith at this time. The end result will hopefully be a reenergized defensive line effort. As Packer fans know all too well, the pass rush in the first half of the season has not been all it should be. Not a lot of sacks. Time to get that turned around. And Da Bearz are just what the doctor ordered after they gave up nine sacks in their most recent game against the Patriots. Chicago's rookie QB, Caleb Williams, may have first-overall-pick talent, but he can't do much if he's lying flat on his back.

Let's get on to a preview of the game, shall we? (Oh, before we go on to the second half of the 2024 season schedule, we should note that in our preseason prediction we had the Packers record at 6-3 at this stage ... in fact, exactly where they currently stand. Well done, us! No applause, just throw money. Thank you.)

A throwback pic: Packers head coach Vince Lombardi and his team before a game against the Bears in 1963 at Wrigley Field in Chicago. Yes, Wrigley Field. The most historic rivalry in the NFL resumes Nov. 17, 2024, at Soldier Field.

(Photo via Milwaukee Journal Sentinel files)


The Preview

Let's start with the Packers. As noted above, the Pack now sits at 6-3. Two of those losses, regrettably, are against division rivals Minnesota and Detroit. So picking up a win in Chicago would be a plus, not only in the division but also in terms of overall NFL standings. Gotta stay in the hunt for the playoffs, if not as winner of the division — which seems possible but not probable at this point — then as a wildcard team.

It's pretty much all hands on deck for the Pack today. The only players ruled out on the latest injury report are rookie RB MarShawn Lloyd and rookie OT Jordan Morgan. Lloyd has not had the rookie season he or the Packers had hoped for when he was selected in the third round of the 2024 NFL Draft. A twisted ankle early on and then lingering hamstring issues have kept him on the sidelines. It appeared earlier in the week that he would finally be available for this game ... until Friday when he awoke not feeling well. Turned out it was appendicitis. So his return in a few weeks or at all this season is a question mark. Morgan had been making progress and making spot performances. So his absence today is a hit to an already thin offensive line, at least in terms of reliable backups. In fact, the Packers placed Morgan on injured reserve Saturday and elevated CB Robert Rochel to the game-day roster. The other question mark for today is CB Jaire Alexander who is questionable with a lingering knee issue. Other players have this and that and are listed as questionable. DL Colby Wooden, who has been making an impact in spot play, is listed as doubtful.

For Chicago, they'll likely be missing a couple starting offensive linemen again this week, which certainly should help the Packers get to Williams today. DE Montez Sweat is listed as questionable with an ankle injury but we would expect him to play.

Keep in mind that Packers RB Josh Jacobs should help set the tone today. If the Pack can get the running game going early on that should allow coach LaFleur to open up his full offensive scheme, keeping Chicago on their heels. And if defensive coordinator Jeff Hafley can dial up the pressure from his front on Caleb Williams, Green Bay's turnover margin should increase accordingly.

There's been a little bit of smack talk — shocking! — between Packers S Xavier McKinney and Chicago WR DJ Moore. Let's see what comes of that on the field. Our money is on McKinney if push comes to shove ... which it very well might. Stay tuned. 

The bottom line is that Chicago is going nowhere after what seemed like a fast 4-2 start that fizzled as they now find themselves at 4-5 after a three-game losing streak. They fired their offensive coordinator earlier this week. Yeah, like that'll solve Chicago's problems.

The Packers have more weapons and talent on both sides of the ball than Da Bearz. The Pack have the playoffs in front of them. But they must take care of business. And that's what this trip to Chicago today is all about: TCB, as Elvis would say. (And, yes, Elvis has left the building.) Gotta show up and play the game. Do not take Da Bearz for granted.

Will weather play a role in today's game? It may have an impact: both teams may be dealing with some wind and rain today. Winds are forecast at 10-15 mph, while the chance of rain is near 30 percent. Sounds as if this would likely affect kickers more than anything else if both were to come to pass. We don't see this game as coming down to a field goal differential, so weather should not present a major problem.

The Prediction

The Packers are now favored by 5-1/2 points over Chicago at the time of this writing, down from 6-1/2 earlier in the week. Not sure what moved the line other than the oddsmakers figure Da Bearz desperation may lead them to an upset win at home? Not. Going. To. Happen.

The Pack will take care of business today, despite this being — as seemingly always with Chicago — their Super Bowl. According to PFF, with a win today the Packers have an 80 percent chance of making the playoffs; with a loss, that chance drops to 48 percent. We prefer the 80 percent, thank you very much.

And with all due respect to my friend, Billy Da Bearz Fan, who offered a "prediction" of Bearz 19 - Packers 18 ... not ... going ... to ... happen. Jackie Da Bearz Fan's Wife (and Packers fan ... yes, it happens), was much more realistic, offering a prediction of Packers 27 - Bearz 6. That's better. Much better. And why we love Jackie.

We're calling it Packers 30 - Da Bearz 13.

Go Pack Go!!!

Sunday, November 10, 2024

2024 NFL Week 10: Packers Bye Week!

Week off. Enjoy, Packers fans. And players ... get healthy. Especially lookin' at you, Jordan Love!

See you next week.

Sunday, November 03, 2024

2024 NFL Week 9: Packers vs. Lions Preview & Prediction

The Lions come to Lambeau.

But first, a quick recap of last weekend's win at Jacksonville. Real quick. Because I was traveling and unable to actually see the game. (I know, I know...) Only heard afterwards that QB Jordan Love left the game with a groin injury and backup extraordinaire Malik Willis stepped in and implemented a game-winning field goal drive in the closing seconds. Kicker Brandon McManus booted his second game-winning field goal since being signed to the Packers a few weeks ago. In other words, a win. And that's what it's all about.

The Packers are now 6-2 and the above-mentioned 6-1 Detroit Lions visit Lambeau Field today with the NFC North lead on the line, as well as potential playoff seedings down the road. Not a disaster if the Pack drops this one. But we all know a win is better than a loss no matter at what point of the season.

A blast from the past: Packers running back Ryan Grant takes it to the Lions in 2007 at Lambeau Field. The Packers won 34-13. The running game will factor strongly into today's game as windy and rainy weather is expected and QB Jordan Love may be limited in his mobility.

(Photo by Rick Wood / Milwaukee Journal Sentinel)


The Preview

Arguably, the two top teams in the NFC face off at Lambeau Field in Green Bay today for the first of their two divisional games. Both come into this game on winning streaks; the Packers have won four straight games, the Lions five. So something will give there.

Both teams have injuries at key positions. The Lions top defensive player, DE Aidan Hutchinson, is out for the season after suffering a broken leg against Dallas a couple weeks ago. The Packers QB, Jordan Love, after sustaining a sprained MCL in his left knee in the season opener and missing two games, last week sustained a groin injury during the game at Jacksonville and had to be replaced by backup Malik Willis who has done nothing but win in his three appearances for the Pack. Love is listed as questionable and a game-time decision. Also listed as questionable for the Packers are CB Jaire Alexander (knee), RB Josh Jacobs (ankle) and cornerback Corey Ballentine (ankle). C Josh Myers (wrist) is doubtful to play and S Evan Williams (hamstring) is out. Myers being out will require a shift of players along the O-line and that could be of benefit to Detroit.

The Lions have top-level, tough, offensive and defensive units and are a reflection of their head coach, Dan Campbell. They have been putting up points behind QB Jared Goff. Getting pressure on him today will be key to the Packers being in and winning this game. One point of note is that (if memory serves) this is Goff's first outdoor game this season. And the conditions are not going to be conducive (according to weather forecasts) even to a QB such as Love who plays outdoors most of the time. This could also open up opportunities for the Pack's very opportunistic defense to generate a takeaway or two, which could be the difference in today's game. But the Packers defense also needs to be on-guard against the Lions trick plays; no team does them more often — or goes for first downs on fourth downs — like Detroit. Be ready!

Regardless of Love's mobility today, the O-line is going to need to keep him upright and in the pocket so he can make his reads and on-target throws. And if Love can't go today, Willis — and a separate game plan — will have to step up as he has in all three of his prior appearances. That effort, for either quarterback, will be aided greatly by having a balanced run-pass game plan and giving the ball to RB Josh Jacobs to chew up yardage and the clock as often as circumstances allow.

Bottom line is that this game will be a grinder, especially for the Packers. Need to prevent turnovers and generate a takeaway or two. With a bye next weekend, the Pack can leave it all on the field today and have an extra week to get healthy.

The Prediction

At the time of this writing, the Lions are favored by 2-1/2 over the Packers with the over-under set at 45-1/2 points. Both sound about right. And, really, who are we to argue?

We think the weather will hold down scoring a bit, which seems to be factored into the total points for the over-under.

We're calling it Packers 24 - Lions 23.

Go Pack Go!!!

Friday, October 25, 2024

2024 NFL Week 8: Packers vs. Jaguars Preview & Prediction

Before we get into the preview and prediction for this weekend's game against the Jacksonville Jaguars, here's a quick review of last Sunday's match up between the Packers and the Texans ... it was certainly closer than we thought it would be ... or that it needed to be, for that matter. But that's what three turnovers can do when you don't reciprocate in kind (for the first time this season).

It all came down to a last-second field goal by a veteran kicker — Brandon McManus — who was just signed to the team and arrived about two days beforehand replacing rookie Brayden "Wide Right" Narveson. McManus actually had to make that game-winning 45-yard field goal twice, as Houston called a timeout just as he kicked the first one. It was good. But didn't count. Had to do it all over again. While the first one was perfect on all counts — snap, hold, kick, down the middle — the second kick, oy: bad snap, recovery-mode hold by the punter, Daniel Whelan, with the ball appearing to start a bit to the left but it stayed inside the goalpost. Yowza! WHHHEEEWWW! That's the way to start your Packers career, Mr. McManus! And thank you for your service! (We wish Narvey well on his kicking career; big leg, just has to get the consistency thing down.)

It was also another opportunity for the Pack's rejuvenated defense to help pull a victory from the jaws of defeat in what was not, shall we say, one of QB Jordan Love's best games (2 INTs). The D kept Houston's sophomore standout QB C.J. Stroud under pressure all afternoon. Ten of Houston's 22 points came off Packers turnovers...and it could have been worse if the defense hadn't really buckled down in some key situations.

But a win is a win. And the Packers find themselves just a half game back at 5-2 in the race for the NFC North and, arguably, a Super Bowl contender. Still, lots to work on. Especially Love taking more after Rodgers and less like Favre in terms of taking care of the ball. But let's enjoy that exciting 'Winter Warning' win and look at the upcoming game against the Jaguars in Jacksonville.

Packers TE Tucker Kraft gets down and funky while making a catch against Houston last Sunday. He's really becoming a breakout star for his blocking and receiving capabilities this season.

(Photo by Wm. Glasheen USA TODAY NETWORK-Wisconsin)


The Preview

First, in the interests of disclosure, we must note that we are writing this post mid-week instead of on the weekend as usual because of other weekend commitments; likely won't even see the game until replays. And, of course, final injury reports are premature at this point. As of Wednesday, Quay Walker, Corey Ballentine, Josh Myers and Elgton Jenkins did not practice. DT Devonte Wyatt did return to practice after missing three games due to injury. Defensive lineman Jonathon Ford was elevated off the practice squad on Monday perhaps to provide additional depth depth just in case Wyatt can't go again this week. Walker sustained a concussion early in the game last week and is still in the concussion protocol. If he can't go, veteran LB Eric Wilson more than stepped up to the challenge in replacing him; he had himself a heckuva game. Beyond that, the Packers good luck on the health front seems to be holding steady, although any hits to the offensive line would not be to Love's or the Pack's advantage. But right now, it seems as if all hands should be good to go (Let us pray...).

For the Jags, offensive lineman Cam Robinson is in the concussion protocol, so who knows whether he will be available or not. RB Travis Etienne missed their game last weekend with a hamstring injury. Again, who knows?

The Jags are 2-5 and, well, not great. QB Trevor Lawrence is an up-and-down talent, it seems. Big arm, lots of possibilities and occasional big plays. Just not the consistency I'm sure the Jags coaches and fans have been waiting for. The only way we see Jacksonville staying in the game is if the Packers let them...through turnovers by the offense and special teams and/or the defense not playing up to their abilities. Jordan Love should have a big day against this Jacksonville secondary as long as he doesn't try to force things the way we have seen since his return from injury; we need more second-half of last season Love rather than first-half. Keep spreading the ball around, push it downfield when it's there, and try to get RB Josh Jacobs at least 20 carries in the game.

The Prediction

At the time of this writing (see above) the Packers are favored by 4-1/2 points with an over-under of 51 points. While the Jags need to win to turn their season around in a bad AFC, the Packers need a win to stay in touch with the ViQueens and Lions who are each now a half-game up in the standings. And, of course, to stay ahead of Da Bearz (ewwwww).

We're calling this game Packers 34 - Jaguars 17.

Go Pack Go!!!

Sunday, October 20, 2024

2024 NFL Week 7: Packers vs. Texans Preview & Prediction

Last weekend, Packers fans, Green Bay played its most complete and balanced game so far this season beating the Cardinals 34-13. The Pack dominated Arizona on both sides of the ball. QB Jordan Love threw for 258 yards, 4 TDs and 1 INT (the latter coming after a slip by the receiver). Total yardage for the Packers amounted to 437 compared to 303 for Arizona. The rushing attack amounted to 179 total yards for Green Bay compared to 89 for the Cardinals. The Pack's defense also continued its takeaway binge, recovering 3 fumbles by Arizona and also getting an interception (by Xavier McKinney, of course). The Packers dominated time of possession by nearly a full quarter.

A great win, especially against a team that had just the week before beaten the Packers' kryptonite team, the 49ers.

So that was then. Now is now. Which brings us to the matchup Sunday between the 4-2 Packers and the 5-1 Houston Texans.

You won't be seeing the Packers in their traditional home colors today.


_03

Instead, the Packers will be rolling out their new 'Winter Warning' color scheme.

For more looks, check out these views.


The Preview

This is a game many were looking forward to as it would showcase two hot young quarterbacks — Jordan Love and C.J. Stroud — and teams expected to compete not only for the playoffs but perhaps even the Super Bowl this season.

For the Packers, the Texans are coming to Lambeau Field at an opportune time. Based upon the latest injury reports available, the Packers are expected to be pretty much all-hands-on-deck, with only DL Devonte Wyatt, and TE Luke Musgrave, who was previously placed on the IR list, out. Conversely, the Texans come to town a bit beat up and without several of their key players both on offense and defense which plays to the Pack's advantage.

Jordan Love, as evidenced by his performance vs. the Cardinals, seems to be nearly over his MCL knee sprain, although he will still be wearing a brace on the left knee for protection. WR Romeo Doubs, despite whatever was going on with him the week he was suspended, returned with a subdued vengeance catching two TD passes from Love. WR Christian Watson also seemed to be past his ankle sprain, lengthening the field for a huge and wide open TD pass. RBs Josh Jacobs and Emanuel Wilson continue to get the yards on the ground.

Defensively, the Packers are thriving on and benefitting from takeaways. The linebackers and secondary are making plays. Most fans are still waiting for the defensive line to exert more pressure on the opposing quarterbacks. But keep in mind this is the first season under new defensive coordinator Jeff Hafley's 4-3 scheme. It seems over the last few games particularly that he is devising different schemes as he has become more familiar with what his personnel are capable of. So perhaps we'll see more pressure on Stroud who, like Kyler Murray last week, is one of those run-pass threats that has so often given the Packers fits. The key will be containing him. In doing so, the Packers defense will also have to stop Houston's running backs, particularly Joe Mixon. While WR Stefon Diggs will be available for Stroud, Robert Woods is out. So not his full complement of weapons, shall we say. On defense, Houston will be shorthanded at linebacker and in the secondary, which should play to Love's advantage over the course of the game.

If there's any question mark in this game it is, we have to say, the kicking game. Oy. It's been a dumpster fire since the Packers opted to let Mason Crosby walk away. The Packers are now on their third active kicker...actually, they have had seven kickers in the building from preseason till now and, as U2 might say, they "still haven't found what they're looking for". I repeat: oy. The team parted ways this past week with rookie kicker, "Wide Right" Brayden Narveson, and signed veteran Brandon McManus. He has kicked in a Super Bowl, so there's that. You can read all about McManus here. Let's hope he can bring the consistency that Narveson et al were unable to bring in their appearances.

The Prediction

Looking at the records, one would probably give the nod to Houston. But the Packers are healthy and the Texans are not. Some may feel Stroud is the better QB over Love; we would not...a push at best.

With the Packers at full strength, the offense humming, and the defense feeling its mojo, we give them the advantage in this game.

Weather is not expected to be a factor; actually, the forecast is very good for this time of year.

The point spread is favoring the Pack by 2-1/2 points at the time of this writing.

We're call it Packers 34 - Texans 24.

Go Pack Go!!!

Sunday, October 13, 2024

2024 NFL Week 6: Packers vs. Cardinals Preview & Prediction

The Packers got a big win in Los Angeles last weekend, 24-19. In fact, Packer fans, it was the team's first win against the Rams in LA since 1966 (courtesy of a lengthy stay by the Rams in St. Louis from 1995-2015, of course)! The game turned out to be a bit closer than it should have been, but the Pack found ways when it needed to to escape, coming home with a "W" instead of a "L".

At 3-2 going into the game against the 2-3 Cardinals — also a former St. Louis team, for those that remember (poor St. Louis!)...and, yes, they were in Chicago before that, too, for the history nerds out there! — the Packers are two games behind the 5-0 ViQueens in the NFC North. (Who would have imagined at this stage of the season Minnesota and Kansas City would be the remaining undefeated teams in the NFL?)

Let's look at this game vs. the Cards to see if the Pack can gain a bit on Minnesota during that team's bye week.

 Green Bay Packers quarterback Jordan Love throws a pass to Green Bay Packers wide receiver Romeo Doubs.

QB Jordan Love will continue his recovery from his left knee injury against AZ.

(Photo by Mark Hoffman/Milwaukee Journal Sentinel)


The Preview

For starters, the Packers may have both wide receivers Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs once again available as pass-catching threats; Watson is listed as questionable on the injury report. Without them last weekend, the Pack did just fine, but having these additional threats available — particularly even the threat of Watson to stretch the field against a so-so Arizona defense — certainly opens things up even more for the Packers offense.

Unfortunately, Green Bay placed TE Luke Musgrave on IR late this week, resulting in them picking up TE John FitzPatrick from the Atlanta Falcons practice squad. Tucker Kraft has been the tight end of choice as the season has developed, helping not only with his blocking but receiving skills. FitzPatrick did participate in the team's Friday practice after arriving in Green Bay so he may find himself in a few select blocking sets and perhaps on special teams, as well. The Packers also elevated fullback Andrew Beck from their own practice squad. It would seem from these moves that the Packers are loading up on blocking to help establish and exploit the running game with Josh Jacobs and Emanuel Wilson to open up the passing game. It could be a lot of fun if that were to all fall into place...and not get hampered by offensive penalties as has been the bugaboo so far this season.

Another player expected to return for the Pack, although still listed as questionable on the Pack's injury report, is Jaire Alexander. Certainly, having him available to go against Cardinals WR Marvin Harrison Jr. would be a plus for the defense. He did have limited participation in practice this week so he should see action.

As for the Cardinals, things pretty much begin and end with QB Kyler Murray. He's one of those quarterbacks that have historically given the Packers fits — regardless of defensive coordinator: a run-pass threat on every offensive play. Much like Jalen Hurts in the first game of the season, the Packers need to keep Murray from beating them with his legs. But he's got a strong arm, too. Tough to defend. Has some weapons around him, particularly the aforementioned Harrison. Arizona also has a suitable running back in the relatively unknown (at least in these parts) James Conner. And the Cards defense — especially its red zone defense — hasn't been horrible; in fact, some analysts suggest it was the reason they went against the Niners last weekend on the road and came home with a 24-23 win.

While favored by 5 points at the time of this writing, this game is not a cake-walk for the Packers...no game is. In fact, Bill Huber who has covered the Pack since 2008, just wrote this article for Sports Illustrated entitled 'Three Reasons Why Packers Will Lose to Cardinals'. So while the Packers should win, especially at Lambeau Field, nothing is a given.

The Prediction

While the consensus generally has the Packers winning this game, as the above-linked article notes there are reasons to think otherwise. Clearly, if the Packers don't play to the level of which they are capable — especially on defense — Arizona could pull off the upset just as they did against the Niners.

We, however, feel that the Packers have the personnel and are showing the grit — yeah, grit — and growth to prevail. It might not always be pretty, and they may once again leave some points on the field (and have badly-time penalties) to make it closer than it should otherwise be. But assuming that the Packers can get out to an early lead and make the Cardinals a bit more one dimensional, the Pack will go to 4-2 on the season when the clock winds down to zero at the end of the 4th quarter.

We're calling it Packers 30 - Cardinals 24.

Go Pack Go!!!

P.S. Yes, we know that our Packers score would generally indicate three field goals among the scoring (OK, OK, or four TDs and a safety...happy now?!) in order to achieve the total. But we have to believe rookie K Brayden Narveson has worked on his "wide right" issues so it's not a crap shoot every time he kicks the ball. Today, if he gets three chances, he makes them.

Sunday, October 06, 2024

2024 NFL Week 5: Packers vs Rams Preview & Prediction

Before we dive into a look at today's game vs. the Rams in LA, a word about out last week's loss at Lambeau to the ViQueens. That word is: oy. To expound: a horrible first half of football — down 28-0 at one point! — followed by a great second half-plus in which the Packers outscored Minnesota 29-3. That last "3", unfortunately, made the difference in the final score of 31-29. As we said, oy.

Now, it should also be noted that, while not placing the loss on the rookie kicker, Brayden Narveson did miss two first half field goals. Making just one would have made the difference between a win and a loss. Right now, Narvy has missed at least one field goal in each game, albeit one which was wiped off the board in the Tennessee game because of a Titans' penalty. And, also of note, each of his misses has been either off the right upright or wide right which indicates a mechanics issue more than anything else; hence, why the Packers are sticking with him. At least for now. They like his leg and his attitude. And, frankly, there just aren't that many good options out there right now in terms of replacing him. Not a great spot to be in unless the young man can make whatever mechanical corrections he needs to make. And fast.

But, as stated, it wasn't all on him. Not when you go down by four TDs in one half of play. The defense had no pass rush on MN QB Sam Darnold, who is having a career-resurrecting season so far. Give him time — as the Pack did last Sunday — and he will connect with his receivers. Advantage ViQueens. And, ultimately, despite Jordan Love finally warming up in the second half, there were just too many things wrong that led to too big of a hole to climb out of. Familiar things. Along with the missed kicks, there were far too many penalties once again. The lack of pressure on the opposing QB. You know the story by now.

What will be the story coming out of today's game in LA? Let's take a look at some possible story lines.

Packers RB Josh Jacobs should have a big game rushing against the LA Rams.

(Photo Milwaukee Journal Sentinel)


The Preview

Let's get the big news out of the way first: WR Romeo Doubs has been suspended by the Packers for today's game because of "conduct detrimental to the team", according to the official statement. He attended Wednesday's practice where the game plan for the upcoming game is presented to the team. Doubs was apparently unhappy with his role, perhaps not just for this game but because of how he has been used so far this season. He didn't attend Thursday's practice — team staff were sent to his home to check on him because he didn't even bother to notify the team he wasn't coming in — or Friday's. The Packers announced the suspension Saturday. So, with Christian Watson still out with his high ankle sprain, that leaves the wide receiving corps for today consisting of Jayden Reed, Dontayvion Wicks, Bo Melton and Malik Heath. They are certainly all capable of making big plays. Add in the tight ends and there will not be a noticeable drop off in production today despite Doubs' absence. Wish he was playing, but he's made his choice and the Packers made theirs. So it goes.

The rest of the look for today should play to the Packers advantage: the Pack is hitting LA at a time when the injury bug has really hit the Rams. The Packers should be able to get a good pass rush on QB Matthew Stafford if they decide to bring it...and they better because Stafford, given time in the pocket, can shred the defense like Darnold did last week. While we know that new defensive coordinator Jeff Hafley doesn't like to blitz out of his 4-3 scheme, he sure better make better uses of it than he did last week.

Offensively, the Packers should be able to take advantage of a beat up and bad Rams defense. RBs Josh Jacobs and Emanuel Wilson should find room to run and the receivers the Packers do have on the field should be able to find pass-catching lanes available. Let's leave it at that.

As for who is in and who is out for the Pack, according to packers.com: "The Packers have listed seven players as questionable for Sunday's game against the Los Angeles Rams. Those seven are cornerback Jaire Alexander (groin), linebacker Edgerrin Cooper (hip), guard/tackle Elgton Jenkins (knee), tackle/guard Jordan Morgan (shoulder), tight end Luke Musgrave (ankle), cornerback Carrington Valentine (ankle), and defensive lineman Jonathan Ford (ankle/injured reserve). Receiver Christian Watson (ankle) and receiver Romeo Doubs (personal) are doubtful after not practicing Thursday or Friday. Defensive lineman Devonte Wyatt (ankle) has been ruled out."

For the Rams, key players out for today are WR Cooper Kupp and DE Darrell Murchison. A few other key players, while not officially "questionable" on the injury report are listed as not practicing most recently. Will see how that goes.

The Prediction

A little factoid of history for you: the last time the Pack beat the Rams in Los Angeles was when Vince Lombardi was the head coach. Yowza! How can that be? Well, recall there was a long period of time when the Rams were headquartered in St. Louis. So there's that.

The Packers are favored by 3 points at the time of this writing with the over-under set at 49.

We think with Love having a full week of practice following shaking off some game-speed rust last weekend, that the Packers should bring a "W" back to Green Bay after the conclusion of today's game to go to 3-2 on the season.

We're calling it Packers 31 - Rams 24.

Go Pack Go!!!

Sunday, September 29, 2024

2024 NFL Week 4: Packers vs Vikings Preview & Prediction

To the surprise of many, including Packers fans, the Pack find themselves at 2-1 after 2 amazing wins at home and on the road with backup QB Malik Willis at the helm in place of the injured Jordan Love. They've done it with creative game-planning by head coach Matt LaFleur and staff, controlled and well-executed play by Willis and the offense, and — especially last weekend vs. the Titans — a defense that dominated.

That leaves us in a game today vs. the 3-0 ViQueens at Lambeau and a chance, with a win, to actually be atop the NFC North about a quarter of the way into season. Who would have imagined it when Love went down in the closing seconds of that game against the Eagles in Brazil? Even without Love, the Packers have demonstrated they can win in a number of ways. Rushing, through the air, getting takeaways and sacking the opposing QB. All of those qualities will need to once again be on display today.

Green Bay Packers tight end Tucker Kraft stiff-arms Minnesota Vikings cornerback Akayleb Evans last season.

Packers TE Tucker Kraft came up big against Minnesota last season and will need another big game today.

(Photo by Mark Hoffman/Milwaukee Journal Sentinel)

The Preview

On offense, Minnesota's QB, veteran Sam Darnold, is having a good season to date. Rookie QB J.J. McCarthy, was supposed to be the starter this season, but an injury put that plan hold. Enter Darnold who is seizing his opportunity to basically resurrect his career. It helps when you have a receiver such as Justin Jefferson and an RB such as long-time Packers fave Aaron Jones among your weapons. But isn't it amazing what a change of team scenery and system can do (witness Malik Willis here, as well)?

Add to this, a stout defense run by Minnesota defensive coordinator Brian Flores and the challenges for opposing teams are many.

But guess what? The Packers present a myriad of problems for their opponents, too, regardless of who is behind center we now know. Today, with Jordan Love expected to play for the first time since sustaining his MCL sprain in the opener, it's unknown how the injury will limit his mobility and affect the offensive scheme. Certainly Love will not be 100 percent. So what will that look like? We'll know in a few hours. Still, it is good to know that if he is ineffective or unable to complete the game that Willis can step in and the Packers will not have an automatic loss as a result.

The key to Love's effectiveness today, limited as it may be, will be the offensive line's ability to keep him clean in the pocket. And to do so without penalties which has been a real problem throughout the first 3 games. Lookin' at you, Rasheed Walker. A-hem.

The 'Queens will no doubt dial up blitzes early to test the protection and Love's mobility. That's where Packers TE Tucker Kraft played such a role last season in the game at Minnesota where he helped beat the blitzes both blocking and catching. Once again, LaFleur has had all week to game-plan for Love's abilities to beat the defense. This will really be a chess match on both sides of the ball.

Of course, the Aaron Jones vs. Josh Jacobs subscript will also be part of today's story. Nobody wanted to see Jones leave the Packers in the offseason. He's beloved in Packerland. But Jacobs has certainly stepped in admirably in terms of making up the running yards. (So has Emanuel Wilson, lest we forget, in relief.) Who will wind up making the difference in the game? Have to wait to see.

Defensively, the Packers will be challenged to cover WR Justin Jefferson and the other receivers without Jaire Alexander and Carrington Valentine in the defensive backfield who are both out for this game. Next man up, as the saying goes. The new 4-3 scheme seems to be starting to pay off with the ability to pressure the QB without constant blitzing. Darnold is not a scrambler so if the front can get to him that can create opportunities for takeaways downfield.

Another curious side note to this game is that it will be rookie kicker vs. rookie kicker. Minnesota has Will Reichard who is 5 for 5 on his FG attempts and 10 for 10 on his PATs. Packer fans know all too well that our rookie kicker, Brayden Narveson, seems so far to be missing one kick per game; the miss last week was wiped out by a penalty on the Titans. We should note, though, that all Reichard's field goals have been indoors at the 'Queens home stadium; today will be his first attempts outdoors, although the weather forecast this early in the season is certainly quite favorable from that standpoint. So if the game is tight and it comes down to a kick, who do you put your money on? Oy.

The Prediction

With about an hour to game time, the Packers are listed as 2-1/2 point favorites. Seems about right. We think it will be a tight game, as these games often are.

We're calling it Packers 24 - ViQueens 23.

Go Pack Go!!!

Saturday, September 21, 2024

2024 NFL Week 3: Packers vs Titans: Preview & Prediction

 A brief review of last week's win over the Colts: we picked the upset.

Moving on...

Just kidding. A bit more.

The big variable in last week's game, of course, was the big unknown: how young backup QB and relatively new Green Bay Packer Malik Willis would do starting in place of injured QB Jordan Love. We knew the game plan by head coach Matt LaFleur would be changed. Boy, was it. Basically, the game plan was run. And run. And run. And the Packers did. Successfully. And the few times they asked Willis to pass, they were successful, too. Yay. "Stealing" a win some would say. We may have put it that way, too, in our preview and prediction. Still, a win to put the Pack at 1-1 as they had to Tennessee to take on the Titans.

Now, let's look at that game.

The Preview

New starting RB Josh Jacobs had a big week against the Colts. The Packers will need another big week from him against the Titans to stay in — and win — the game.

(Photo by Ken Blaze-USA TODAY Sports)

While it was a certainty last week that QB Jordan Love was out for the game against the Colts, with three days of limited practice this week, Love's status will be determined about 90 minutes before game time, according to head coach Matt LaFleur. Still, like last week, the Packers have once again elevated backup QB Sean Clifford from the practice squad to the active roster for this game. That may very well be an indicator that Love will once again be unavailable for the game vs. the Titans. We'd bet on that too.

While Willis was an unknown for the Packers last week, he performed well. Better than expected for many fans, no doubt. But Willis is not an unknown for Tennessee, the team which drafted him several years ago and from which he was traded at the end of training camp. The Titans know his pros and cons and obviously decided to part ways with him. After one game with the Packers, we're glad with their decision.

But that raises the question: what kind of game plan will LaFleur devise against a team and defense that (1) knows the Packers will once again predominately run the ball and (2) knows Willis' tendencies? For example (and as was on display last week), a propensity to throw to the right. With limited opportunities to throw, those tendencies become amplified. And predictable to defend. If we know this, so does LaFleur. We would expect him to devise additional wrinkles to exploit the Titans' defense in ways that they don't expect.

One of those ways may be to indeed throw more controlled passes. And perhaps even a few of those will be downfield. We still haven't seen the emergence of WR Christian Watson this season and his ability to stretch the defense — at least as a threat if not a reality — could well factor into Sunday's game, as will the abilities of the other receivers and tight ends to make plays when their numbers are called.

Another big day for RB Josh Jacobs and the O-line is also needed. The Titans have a decent defensive front so running will be a challenge. But the same was said about the Eagles in the first game and the Packers were able to run well against them. The line knows, according to various interviews, that if Willis is the QB they will need to continue their strong run-blocking. They also know, and have said, that if Love is able to play that they will have to make sure he "stays clean", i.e., they can't let him get hit when he's in the pocket.

The Packers defense will need to generate takeaways against the Titans offense. As Milwaukee Journal Sentinel sport journalist Ryan Wood notes in his preview of the game: "Titans quarterback Will Levis is erratic, not a threat to make plays with his legs, and plays behind an offensive line that has allowed seven sacks in two games." If the Packers defensive front can generate pressure, that will make a huge difference in the game's outcome.

The Prediction

As was the case last week, the Packers are at the time of this writing 3-point underdogs against the Titans. And as was the case last week, we're going to pick the Packers. Shocker, we know. But whereas last weekend the pick was more heart than head, this weekend we think there's enough evidence on both sides to say the Pack will emerge with a win whether or not Love is able to play. In fact, we hope the Pack decides to rest Love another week for the division game back at Lambeau against the ViQueens.

We're taking the Packers 24 - Titans 20.

Go Pack Go!!!

Sunday, September 15, 2024

2024 NFL Week 2: Packers vs Colts Preview & Prediction

How are we feeling today, Packers fans? If you're like yours truly, probably still disappointed in the performance vs. the Eagles in Brazil. But even more so in the injury — with 6 seconds left in the game — to starting QB Jordan Love. He's out for today's game and perhaps at least 1 or 2 more games. A grade 1 or 2 MCL sprain, we've been told. Could have been much worse, granted. But still, it does give an immediate hit to the Packers playoff chances let alone the team's Super Bowl chance if they can't somehow find a way to win 1 or 2 of these first 4 games while awaiting Love's return.

But you already know that.

So what happens today?

This was NOT how we wanted to see Game 1 of the 2024 NFL Season end: QB Jordan Love on the ground in pain from a knee injury with 6 seconds remaining on the game clock. The Packers will have to find other ways to win today vs. the Colts and for perhaps the next few weeks.

(Photo by Wagner Meier, Getty Images)

The Preview

Most previews of today's game are focused, rightly so, on what's missing: Jordan Love. That's a huge piece missing and completely changes Matt LaFleur's offense. New starting QB Malik Willis has very little practical NFL experience. Supposedly, he is very athletic, can do some damage with his legs probably more than his arm although the latter attribute is noted as being "lively" in scouting reports. OK. Fine. But the knock on him coming out of college (Auburn and Liberty universities) and into his brief time with the Titans is that he has difficulty "processing" the game. That's not great. Still, Packers GM Brian Gutekunst has stated that he saw progress in Willis' abilities over the last year or two. How that translates to running the Packers offense after only about 18 days in the system? We will find out today.

The game plan will obviously be slimmed down to what Willis was able to pick up during this very minimal time. LaFleur needs to give him plays that will have 1 or 2 progressions tops before either getting rid of the ball or running. We can expect the Colts defense to load up the box with 8 defenders knowing the Pack will be run-heavy in all likelihood. There may be throws to be made and Willis will have to make them, as well as use his legs when that opportunity presents itself. How well Willis has been able to establish any connections with the receivers through practice...who knows? Running backs Josh Jones and Emanuel Wilson will need to help out, and the O-line will have to play at a an extremely high level today, and without the penalties we saw in the opener (yeah, we're looking at you, Rasheed Walker).

Of course, the Packers defense will have to keep things close. They generated turnovers in the first game but the Packers were not able to take advantage of them beyond field goals. That was a big reason the team came up short against Philly. Special teams — particularly the new kicker — will need to make ALL his FG and PAT attempts; can't leave any points on the field as was the case last week...points that may have made the difference.

For a great overview of things to watch in today's game, check out this great article by Tom Silverstein in the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel.

The Predication

It's the Pack's home opener, so there will be a lot of energy in the stadium. There will also need to be a lot of energy on the part of the Packers once they take the field. It's gotta be all gas, no brake.

The Colts are favored by 3 points at the time of this writing.

Our heads tell us this game will go the Colts way for obvious reasons. But our last-second feeling is that LeFleur will figure out a way to have the team execute just enough to steal a game they probably shouldn't win.

We're calling it Packers 20 - Colts 17.

Go Pack Go!!!

Sunday, September 08, 2024

Packers vs Eagles Game Review & Season Prediction Adjustment

Dear Packer fans ...

We knew that the Week 1 Friday night game of the 2024 NFL season would likely be a toss-up, and it was really. The Eagles were favored by 3 and won by 5. We had predicted the Packers to win by a score of 27-24. Close, but not a win and not close enough.

The field was problematic for both teams, with a lot of slipping going on. The game itself was a sloppy performance overall by both teams, as well. But the Eagles did a better job of overcoming their problems on that front, with some assistance by the Packers. The Pack had way too many penalties (cue OL Rasheed Walker for more than his share!), too many missed tackles, an inability to score TDs in the redzone (after 2 early takeaways in these cases BTW, that could have likely put Philly away early), and a deja vu feel for the defense despite the change in defensive coordinator and scheme change from 3-4 to 4-3. Not being able to get a stop when needed ... where we have seen that before???

USATSI_24172889 (1)

Packers QB Jordan Love being assisted off the playing field in Brazil at the end of the game vs. the Eagles.

(Photo by Kirby Lee-Imagn Images)

But the big news coming out of the night, as the entire sports world now knows, was the knee injury QB Jordan Love sustained with about 6 seconds left in the game. Trying to keep a play alive as his protection broke down, Love was sandwiched between 2 Philly defenders and twisted both his left ankle and knee; he went down immediately in pain and after moments on the ground had to be assisted off the field.

Initially, the thought from the replay video was that it was his ankle. Turns out, not. Instead, we have now learned that Love likely sustained a MCL sprain of the grade 2 variety. Translation — still subject to revision after further testing — is that Love will likely be out at least 3 to 6 weeks according to current reports. On the one hand, we can be thankful that it wasn't an ACL tear which would have been season-ending. On the other hand, the Packers will now have to figure out a way to get through anywhere from the next 3 to 6 games without their hundreds-of-millions-of-dollars quarterback.

Oy.

Options? Not great.

What are the options? We refer you to an excellent overview in the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel on this topic. Right now, in summary, the Packers can either go with the recently-acquired Malik Willis, bring up 2nd-year backup Sean Clifford from the practice squad, or sign another QB and hope to get that person up to speed in time for the next game vs. the Colts on Sept. 15 and then ongoing until Love's return. Actually, Willis and Clifford would also need to gear up for a bit of an extended run, too.

Who are the opponents over the next 3 to 6 weeks? The next 3 weeks have the Colts coming to Lambeau Field, then at Tennessee, then back home against the ViQueens. Our initial season prediction — looking at these games plus the opener as the 1st quarter of the season — had the Pack going 3-1, although noting that they could also lose 2 of the first 4 games ... and that was with Love as QB. Without him? Hmmm. The Packers have already lost 1. Likely will lose at least 1 of the next 3 without the star QB at the helm. Perhaps two. Or all three. So from going 3-1 in this first stretch of games to going 0-4 becomes as likely a possibility as not. Not great.

Looking ahead to games 5 and 6, the Pack plays the Rams in LA and then the Cardinals back in Green Bay. Assuming Love can be back for 1 or both of these games, the Rams still remains a tough game. If Love is not yet back behind center? Advantage Rams, and the Cardinals game would probably be considered a toss-up.

Of course, all this also assumes the Packers defense remains as lackluster throughout these games as it played in the opener. That's a bit of an assumption given the caliber of the players on that unit and the reputation of Jeff Hadley as defensive coordinator. The expectation is that things will get straightened out and that could help cover up any offensive issues for a time...perhaps the D and special teams could even win a game or 2. That would be nice.

The bottom line is that things are very much up in the air. Not how the team or fans thought we would start this season out. But at least there is the likelihood that Love returns and can hopefully regain at some point the characteristics we saw on display in the second half of last season. Because, let's also be honest, he was not locked in that way in this opening game vs. Philly. He wasn't horrible, but wasn't as sharp as we would have hoped either.

Season Prediction Adjustment?

Our initial season prediction saw the Pack finishing at 11-6. That was with Love at QB for all 17 games. Now? Oy. I think at least 1 game has to switch from the win to the loss column during the next 3 weeks. And if Love is out 6 weeks? I think another win turns to a loss. So we could now, barring some miracle or series of miracles, see the Packers finishing at 9-8. That's definitely on the playoff bubble...not a place anyone expected to be given the team's consensus Super Bowl contender preseason status.

The road has become much more uncertain, Packer fans. Let's offer up some "thoughts and prayers" for our favorite QB, Jordan Love, for a fast and effective return. For not only his well-being, but for the team's season prognosis, as well.

Go Pack Go!!!

P.S. 

Can we also agree that the Packers should NEVER agree to play another international NFL game? Cases in point: the Packers played, and lost in London, and then-QB Aaron Rodgers broke his thumb; in the team's second international appearance, the Packers played, and lost in Brazil, and starting QB Jordan Love was injured at the end of the game and will be lost 3 to 6 weeks with a sprained MCL.

Let the NFL send its bottom-of-barrel teams out of country. Too much at stake for the top-level teams. Too much. If that sounds elitist, sorry. But there are differences and matters of degree across the franchises. We understand the international draw of the Packers as one of the top teams in the NFL, but the risk to the Packers — despite the dollar rewards to the NFL — is not worth it. (So ends the editorial portion of this post.)