2020 Season NFC Championship: Packers vs. Buccaneers

I took a deep breath as I began writing this preview and prediction, Packers fans. Because while we have all shared dreams of heading to the Super Bowl this season, and winning it, of course, there remains one little detail that needs to be taken care of first: beating the Tom Brady-led Tampa Bay Buccaneers and a really good defense that dominated the Pack in the teams' first meeting earlier this season. (Deep breath...)

Packers QB Aaron Rodgers and his offense will need to up their game today against

a Buccaneers defense that dominated them in the earlier meeting this season.

(Photo by Mark LoMoglio, AP)

Obviously, the main storyline is that of quarterback Aaron Rodgers vs. quarterback Tom Brady. And this will no doubt play itself out throughout the course of the game, perhaps down to the very last play.

In the first meeting, Rodgers threw 2 of his 5 interceptions during the regular season, including a pick-6. He was sacked, if memory serves, 4 times, and was under pressure most of the game. And that was with LT David Bakhtiari. Buccaneers defensive coordinator Todd Bowles had the Pack's offense out of sync. It was unquestionably the Pack's worst game of the season.

Hopefully, lessons will have been learned. The Packers also need to take advantage of being at home in Lambeau Field. Granted, there may only be a fraction of the number of fans present that would otherwise be there in non-Covid times, but you can be sure all those present will represent Packer fans around the world who are there in spirit today.

In addition to a stout defensive line, the Bucs linebackers are fast. Hopefully, the slower turf — especially in the winter weather of Green Bay — will slow them down a bit.Thankfully, the full complement of the Packers running backs will be available, as will the receiving corps. When opportunities for runs and especially catches are present they need to be made; no drops or turnovers that could take the momentum away and flip the game to Tampa's favor. The Bucs defense is a takeaway machine and, in last week's win over the Saints in New Orleans, their 3 takeaways wound up leading to 21 points ... and, ultimately, the win. The Packers can't allow that to happen today or they could be this weekend's Saints.

As for the Packers defense against the Bucs offense, the defense must hold down the rushing game that serves to open up the passing game for Brady. He doesn't really need any help in that regard, does he? The defense also needs to get to Brady...quickly. While Rodgers is known for how quickly he can get the ball out, Brady is no slouch either. The Pack will need to get pressure on Brady and keep it on, while the D-backs and linebackers will need to be as tight as glue on Tampa receivers.

The Packers defense has been getting better and better over the last half of the season. They've got some mojo going. And a few days ago, Packers defensive coordinator Mike Pettine made the entire defense watch the replay of last season's NFC Championship game loss to the 49ers, where they played more like the Little Sisters of the Poor than the Green Bay Packers. The effect on those who were part of that defense, which was nearly all of those present, was as desired, according to reports: they were embarrassed, upset...P-O'd. Good. Perhaps that will be a motivator today.

The opportunities to play in championship games with the right to go to the Super Bowl on the line doesn't come along that often. The Pack will have now played in 2 in a row, the fifth in Rodgers career with only 1 winning trip to the Super Bowl to show for all the effort.

With Aaron Rodgers having one of his best season's ever and likely securing his third MVP award, and at age 37, we don't know how many of these opportunities will be there in the future for a Rodgers-led team. As the late Hall of Fame LB and Packers coach Kevin Greene said to a young Clay Matthews during the last Packers' Super Bowl win, "It is time." Indeed.

The Prediction

The Packers have received roughly the home field advantage spread of 3-1/2 points. The over-under has gone up from 51 to 52 or 53 depending upon your info source.

We don't expect the weather to be that much of a factor in today's game. Snow has already fallen this morning. No snow is predicted during the game. Temps will range from about 29° F at kickoff to 25° F at the end of the game. Winds are expected to be light and not a factor. Brady played all his career except this year for a cold weather team, and played his college ball at Michigan, so this weather will have no impact on his game. We can only hope it might have an effect on some of his teammates.

We expect this to be a hard-fought game by the two top teams in NFC. The Packers have experienced heartbreak in their last three trips to the NFC Championship with Rodgers at the helm. With the bad taste of last year's loss in mind (made fresh by Pettine's video session for the defense), and with knowledge gained from the earlier loss in Tampa, we expect the Packers to continue their winning ways today.

We're calling it Packers 31 - Buccaneers 27.

Go Pack Go!!!

Pack vs. 'Skins Recap

Yesterday was one of those win-ugly games that the Pack seems to be turning into an art form this season. They might not be pretty games to watch, but the results are sure pretty darn good. 5-1. There's lucky. And there's good. Sometimes, both is the way to be. That may describe the Pack so far.

While there were certainly enough problems that could have cost the Pack this win, the fact that the defense basically won this game is a good sign. The 'Skins came in with a hot young QB, a proven running back, and as things would have it, a tight end that was their best offensive weapon all day long. They also had a pretty darn good defense. The combination of all those things led to two interceptions by the 'Skins, although there could just as easily have been as many as five. There also could have a been a few fumble recoveries. Missed opportunities on the part of the 'Skins. Perhaps that's why Chris Collinsworth -- on whatever network he's on these days -- was nearly apoplectic when describing how Washington had "given the game away." They certainly did help, granted, especially with that 57-yard fumble recovery for a TD by Charles Woodson.

But give the game away? How did the 'Skins give the game away when the Pack had two missed field goals, two interceptions, and two touchdowns nullified by bad calls by the refs? In the case of the latter, Bubba Franks got one foot down in the end zone before being pushed out. On a similar play last week, the Bears receiver was deemed to have been forced out and Da Bearz got their winning points. On the second non-TD, it was called back on a phantom holding penalty against Mark Tauscher, who is one of the least-penalized players not only on the team but probably the entire NFL. Replays, and commentary by the crew calling the game, failed to indicate exactly where the penalty was. And -- in one of those "oh-oh" moments -- after the Pack recovered a fumble at the 'Skins own 9-yard line, they failed to even convert a field goal. So, let's see...the Pack leave up to 20 points on the field and Collinsworth says the 'Skins "gave the game away"? Right. Brilliant insights, Mr. Collinsworth. Yes, the 'Skins did help with dropped passes and those fumbles. But the Pack was doing its best to give the game away, too.

Still, as noted at the outset, it was the "D' that won this game. Charles Woodson had an interception and that fumble-recovery return for the winning touchdown -- his first ever fumble recovery TD, by the way. Huge game. Aaron Kampman put pressure on the 'Skins QB all day, including some clutch sacks. Nick Barnett had a couple huge stops, including a critical fourth-down play. Cullen Jenkins, KGB, Johnny Jolly, Corey Williams, A. J. Hawk, Atari Bigby, Al Harris...the entire defense all came up big. Game balls for everyone!

Brett didn't have a particularly good day although, again, he had two TD passes called back. He passed George Blanda for the #1 spot in all-time interceptions. Special teams didn't have a good day either, with rookie kicker Mason Crosby making one field goal while missing two. And, of course, the running game...well, you can't even say it sucks because that would imply there was something there to actually suck. The running game is non-existent, although it did account for an actual rushing TD early in the game. Who'da thunk it?

So, going into the bye week, the Packers are tied with the Cowboys for the best record in the NFC. They have a lot to work on. But if the defense can maintain its high level of play, and the offense can somehow find some balance, i.e., even a hint of a running game -- which is critical going into the bad weather months -- the Packers should be a lock for the playoffs. Let's just leave it at that for now.

Next stop: Monday Night Football, Oct. 29, at Denver.