2023 NFL Week 15: Packers vs. Buccaneers Preview & Prediction

 Oh...so...close.

The Packers had it...then didn't.

How many times have we said this over the course of the 2023 season? More than we'd like.

And it was the case yet again last Monday night against the Giants. Snatched defeat from the jaws of victory. In a game where the opposing offense was starting a third-string quarterback and with a line that had given up 69 (?!) sacks going into the game, the Packers defense didn't get one sack. Not one. And it allowed a QB that still lives at home with his parents to beat them with his legs throughout the game and hit a few throws down the stretch that allowed for a winning field goal. C'mon, say it with me: "Thank you, Joe Barry. Once again." SMH

Of course, the offense and special teams performances left much to be desired, as well. QB Jordan Love was off his game, turning the ball over twice with one fumble on an ill-advised run and one interception...his throws were off most of the night because, as he admitted after the game, his footwork and mechanics were not the same as they had been during his hot streak. And head coach Matt LaFleur's play-calling was not the best. How many times do you run a wide receiver (i.e. Jayden Reed) end-around before the defense knows exactly what you are doing? Oh, and Keisean Nixon, you're great. But when you muff a punt, get on it and stay down. A horrible decision to try to advance the ball after the muff. And you knew it immediately. But by then...well, only a few plays later...the damage was done in the form of 7 points going to the Giants. An early Christmas gift. Oy.

Anyway...time to turn the page. The Packers are back home at Lambeau Field for a noon  (CT) game Sunday vs. Tampa Bay. Is it yet again the Battle of the Bay of Pigs? No. At least, we don't think so. But let's have a look, shall we?

This is a look from QB Jordan Love that we hope not to see

after the game vs. the Buccaneers.

(Photo by Seth Wenig, Associated Press)

The Preview

This comes across as a pick-em game. The Packers are sitting at 6-7, as are the Buccaneers. The catch is that in the train wreck that is the NFC South, Tampa is basically in a 3-way tie for first while the Pack — with the same record — is in 3rd place in the NFC North.

Bottom line, though, is both are playing for playoff spots. Tampa currently sits in 4th place while the Packers are in the 7th and final spot for a wildcard. According to the latest projections, if the Packers beat the Bucs Sunday, they have a 71% chance (in some models) to make the playoffs; lose and that goes below 30%. With the Vikings loss Saturday to the Bengals in an epic 4th quarter collapse, they are sitting at 7-7. The Packers need to win this game to keep apace.

Both teams come into Sunday's game without key personnel. The Pack will likely be without one if not both of their starting running backs. Aaron Jones may be back — or not. A.J. Dillon, we learned after the Giants game, has a broken thumb on the hand with which he carries the football. Not ideal. In a game where the rushing attack is key to helping take the pressure off QB Jordan Love and open up the passing game, the Packers may be down to their back-up backs. So it goes. WR Christian Watson will also likely not be available. Again. On the flips side, the Buccaneers will be without some of their top defenders which should help a short-handed Packers offense.

That only matters if the Packers offensive line does a better job protecting Love than they did in the Meadowlands. And if the Packers defensive front can get to Tampa QB Baker Mayfield, who has been known to toss a few INTs in his 2 prior visits to Lambeau. Oh, and Packers special teams need to be special.

The Prediction

The Packers are favored in this game by 3-1/2 points at the time of this writing. If they play the way did in their wins against the Lions and the Chiefs, they can beat anybody. If they play the way they did vs. the Giants (and others) they can keep things close but still wind up losing.

We're putting the green-n-gold colored glasses back on and hoping the Pack have worked out at least some of the issues — in all 3 phases of the game — that led to their defeat on Monday.

We're calling it Packers 24 - Buccaneers 20.

Go Pack Go!!!

2022 NFL Week 3: Packers vs. Buccaneers Preview & Prediction

 As we begin, let us acknowledge that the Packers did what they needed to do last weekend: beat Da Bearz at Lambeau Field in their home opener. Yay. As Elvis would say: TCB, baby! Takin' care of business!

Which leads us to today when the Pack takes on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the late afternoon heat and humidity of Florida. Ewww. Plus, that Tom Brady QB guy. Double ewww.

The Preview

This game is being hyped, as expected, as perhaps the last meeting between two future Hall of Fame quarterbacks in Brady and Aaron Rodgers. This is likely Brady's last season and as for Rodgers, who knows? But as much as fans are interested in this aspect of the game, this is a contest in which the defenses may have more of an impact than the offenses. Who'd ever imagine saying that in a Brady vs. Rodgers game? But here we are.

Packers QB Aaron Rodgers hoping to improve today on his record

vs. the Buccaneers against whom he is just 2-4, 1-3 in Tampa.

(Photo by Jason Behnken, AP)

Tampa's defense is arguably the best in the NFL right now. The Packers' defense was expected prior to the season to be a Top 5 defense. A bit of the air in that balloon went out in the opening loss to the ViQueens. Last weekend's game vs Chicago helped a bit, but still a lot of missed tackles. But, after all, it was Chicago so we can't read too much into that, can we?

The Bucs offense, despite being led by Brady, will be down a few receivers today: Mike Evans is suspended, Chris Godwin is out for the third straight week and Julio Jones is questionable. The running game also isn't quite at full strength, according to reports. Brady isn't as mobile as he once was and without his usual weapons, the Packers defense should have the upper hand. Should.

The Packers offense is still a work in progress. The O-line got RT Elgton Jenkins back last week. This week, word is that LT David Bakhtiari will play today. We'll see how well he is able to hold up against the Bucs defense in his first game back after his long ACL recovery. Rushing will be a challenge against this defense which, in normal times, one would look upon as a cue to rely on the pass. Except that the Pack is also down a few receivers right now. The team placed Sammy Watkins on the IR, a place where he has, unfortunately, spent a good portion of his once-promising career. This is a game where Rodgers may need to rely more on TE Robert Tonyan and work on building his trust with his rookie receivers, particularly Romeo Doubs and Christian Watson. And if the Pack can get RBs Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon touches out of the backfield that can help open things up a bit, too.

The Pack will need to control the clock today, avoid turnovers and special teams mistakes, and — cliche as it is — make the plays they are supposed to make. Oh, and pressuring and getting at least one turnover against Brady and the Bucs' offense would help a great deal, as well.

The Prediction

This is projected by the oddsmakers as a relatively low-scoring game with the over-under set at 42. Tampa is favored by 1-1/2 points.

To us, this seems almost like a pick 'em type game. Both teams have question marks, both teams have great QBs, but the Bucs are at home. In the heat and humidity (it's supposed to feel like 101 degrees F right about time of kickoff...and that's not even the on-the-field heat), Tampa players should be more well adapted to the conditions. Not the frozen tundra, but rather the sweltering swamp.

As much as we hope the outcome is otherwise, we see this one going the way of Tampa Bay in a close one. (Please let us be wrong!)

We're calling it Buccaneers 20 - Packers 17.

Go Pack Go!!!

2020 Season NFC Championship: Packers vs. Buccaneers

I took a deep breath as I began writing this preview and prediction, Packers fans. Because while we have all shared dreams of heading to the Super Bowl this season, and winning it, of course, there remains one little detail that needs to be taken care of first: beating the Tom Brady-led Tampa Bay Buccaneers and a really good defense that dominated the Pack in the teams' first meeting earlier this season. (Deep breath...)

Packers QB Aaron Rodgers and his offense will need to up their game today against

a Buccaneers defense that dominated them in the earlier meeting this season.

(Photo by Mark LoMoglio, AP)

Obviously, the main storyline is that of quarterback Aaron Rodgers vs. quarterback Tom Brady. And this will no doubt play itself out throughout the course of the game, perhaps down to the very last play.

In the first meeting, Rodgers threw 2 of his 5 interceptions during the regular season, including a pick-6. He was sacked, if memory serves, 4 times, and was under pressure most of the game. And that was with LT David Bakhtiari. Buccaneers defensive coordinator Todd Bowles had the Pack's offense out of sync. It was unquestionably the Pack's worst game of the season.

Hopefully, lessons will have been learned. The Packers also need to take advantage of being at home in Lambeau Field. Granted, there may only be a fraction of the number of fans present that would otherwise be there in non-Covid times, but you can be sure all those present will represent Packer fans around the world who are there in spirit today.

In addition to a stout defensive line, the Bucs linebackers are fast. Hopefully, the slower turf — especially in the winter weather of Green Bay — will slow them down a bit.Thankfully, the full complement of the Packers running backs will be available, as will the receiving corps. When opportunities for runs and especially catches are present they need to be made; no drops or turnovers that could take the momentum away and flip the game to Tampa's favor. The Bucs defense is a takeaway machine and, in last week's win over the Saints in New Orleans, their 3 takeaways wound up leading to 21 points ... and, ultimately, the win. The Packers can't allow that to happen today or they could be this weekend's Saints.

As for the Packers defense against the Bucs offense, the defense must hold down the rushing game that serves to open up the passing game for Brady. He doesn't really need any help in that regard, does he? The defense also needs to get to Brady...quickly. While Rodgers is known for how quickly he can get the ball out, Brady is no slouch either. The Pack will need to get pressure on Brady and keep it on, while the D-backs and linebackers will need to be as tight as glue on Tampa receivers.

The Packers defense has been getting better and better over the last half of the season. They've got some mojo going. And a few days ago, Packers defensive coordinator Mike Pettine made the entire defense watch the replay of last season's NFC Championship game loss to the 49ers, where they played more like the Little Sisters of the Poor than the Green Bay Packers. The effect on those who were part of that defense, which was nearly all of those present, was as desired, according to reports: they were embarrassed, upset...P-O'd. Good. Perhaps that will be a motivator today.

The opportunities to play in championship games with the right to go to the Super Bowl on the line doesn't come along that often. The Pack will have now played in 2 in a row, the fifth in Rodgers career with only 1 winning trip to the Super Bowl to show for all the effort.

With Aaron Rodgers having one of his best season's ever and likely securing his third MVP award, and at age 37, we don't know how many of these opportunities will be there in the future for a Rodgers-led team. As the late Hall of Fame LB and Packers coach Kevin Greene said to a young Clay Matthews during the last Packers' Super Bowl win, "It is time." Indeed.

The Prediction

The Packers have received roughly the home field advantage spread of 3-1/2 points. The over-under has gone up from 51 to 52 or 53 depending upon your info source.

We don't expect the weather to be that much of a factor in today's game. Snow has already fallen this morning. No snow is predicted during the game. Temps will range from about 29° F at kickoff to 25° F at the end of the game. Winds are expected to be light and not a factor. Brady played all his career except this year for a cold weather team, and played his college ball at Michigan, so this weather will have no impact on his game. We can only hope it might have an effect on some of his teammates.

We expect this to be a hard-fought game by the two top teams in NFC. The Packers have experienced heartbreak in their last three trips to the NFC Championship with Rodgers at the helm. With the bad taste of last year's loss in mind (made fresh by Pettine's video session for the defense), and with knowledge gained from the earlier loss in Tampa, we expect the Packers to continue their winning ways today.

We're calling it Packers 31 - Buccaneers 27.

Go Pack Go!!!

2020 NFL Week 7: Packers vs. Texans Preview and Prediction

A quick look back ...  

Oops.

Before we look at the upcoming game against the Texans in Houston today, we need to acknowledge that things didn't go as planned in last week's game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, did they, Packer fans? After rushing out to a quick and relatively easy 10-point lead, the Pack proceeded to give up 38 unanswered points. An ugly performance on both sides of the ball that saw the Pack fall from the ranks of the undefeated and, for a time anyway, cede first place in the NFC North to Da Bearz (ewwwww!).

The Bucs defense had constant pressure on QB Aaron Rodgers throughout the game, leading to two uncharacteristic interceptions, two within three passes actually (including a pick-6 return), while the Pack's D let a non-mobile Tom Brady go by nearly untouched. The offense couldn't get going and the defense seemed lethargic and out of position constantly. Example: why was DT Kenny Clark dropping into coverage? Who knows. Either out of position or a badly designed scheme. But anyway, that's done. First loss of the season. On to Houston.

One of the things that has been in short supply this season for the Packers has been

turnovers. Here, safety Adrian Amos gets an interception last season against the Bears.

The defense needs to start generating takeaways. (Photo by Mike De Sisti, Milwaukee Journal Sentinel)

The Preview

The game at Houston will pit a potentially explosive offense (Texans) against an actually explosive offense (Packers)...despite the latter not actually being so in last week's game, this year's Packers have been known to put up points. Thankfully, the Texans defense ranks at or near the bottom of the league in terms of defense, which sets things up nicely for the Packers to get back on track after the stumble against the Bucs.

Despite not having LT David Bakhtiari for today's game, perhaps not having RB Aaron Jones (supposedly a game-time decision), and going against all-world (and Wisconsin native) DE JJ Watt, this game sets up well for the Packers offense to put up points.

On the other side of the ball, the Packers defense — which clearly has some of its own issues to resolve — will be going up against the type of quarterback in Deshaun Watson that has typically given them fits over the years. Yes, a different year and set of players. But for the last few years, the same defensive coordinator and scheme. Watson is dangerous when flushed from the pocket. He will be hard to corral and sack. And if he is able to get around the end he can either open things up downfield for a pass or scamper to keep the chains moving.

The Prediction

The Packers come into this game (at the time of this writing) as 3-1/2 point favorites. The Packers need to get the running game going today to not allow Watt and company time and opportunity to get after Rodgers the way the Buccaneers did last week. As noted earlier, it's not clear at this time whether Jones will be active in the backfield today. So Jamaal Williams, A.J. Dillon and other backs, such as Dexter Williams just activated off the practice squad (perhaps a sign that Jones won't be available today), will have to carry the load. If they can do so successfully we should see the offense we saw in the first four games of the season, not the last one. Of course, it would help if the defense could generate a turnover or two, as well, something that they've only done three times in five games so far.

We're calling it Packers 34 - Texans 27.

Go Pack Go!!!

2020 NFL Week 6: Packers vs. Buccaneers Preview and Prediction

Hope you enjoyed the Week 5 Bye Week, Packer fans. Always a time to ... I dunno ... what does one do when the Pack isn't playing? A mystery to me still.

Seems like years ago — instead of just two weeks — we took down the Falcons at Lambeau Field by a score of 30-16. (By the way, our prediction, for those watching such things, and which you can find in the prior post here, was Packers 30 - Falcons 20 ... not bad, eh?)

Anyway, today we find our beloved 4-0 Green Bay Packers heading down to Tampa and a meeting with veteran QB Tom Brady and a very good 3-2 Tampa Bay team.

Two future Hall of Fame Quarterbacks, Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers meet up today for

only the third time in their playing careers. (Photo by USA Today Network - Wisconsin)

The Prediction

The Packers are favored by 1 point going into the game. Earlier in the week, the Bucs were favored by 1-1/2 points. But as it became clearer that the Pack would be getting a few of their key players back today, chief among them WR Davante Adams, the odds changed.

We're not going to go into details today. Getting a bit late for that anyway. But we will say that the Packers will likely be challenged on both sides of the ball in ways they haven't been yet this season. And they certainly haven't faced Brady, who has been as magical over his career as has Rodgers in close games. With six Super Bowl wins to his credit he knows how to get things done. And understatement, to say the least. But Rodgers is looking like he hasn't in years, and with weapons galore — even against a stout Bucs defense — the odds favor the Pack going to 5-0 today.

That's why we're calling it Packers 34 - Buccaneers 30.

Go Pack Go!!!

2017 NFL Week 13: Packers vs. Buccaneers

So, Packers fans, we got a better Brett Hundley at quarterback last week vs. the Steelers. But still not good enough in other areas of the game, particularly on defense -- and, some may say, coaching -- to win the game. The Steelers are 9-2 for a reason, just as the Packers are now 5-6 overall and 1-5 since losing QB Aaron Rodgers at Minnesota.

The good news, looking ahead, is that Rodgers actually -- officially -- practiced yesterday...although he still can't come off injured reserve for the next two weeks...if he's ready. And, more good news, the Packers are still technically alive at 5-6 for a playoff spot. Technically. Win today at home against Tampa Bay and next week at Cleveland -- two winnable games (but wasn't Baltimore???) -- and it's likely the Pack will reactivate Rodgers for that stretch run, if his collarbone passes X-ray examination, of course. If the Pack loses today, that likelihood starts to narrow. But that's looking ahead, as we said. Let's stay focused on today, shall we?

The Packers need backup QB Brett Hundley to play like he did against the Steelers
for the team to have a chance to keep pace in the NFC Wildcard
playoff hunt before Aaron Rodgers returns.
(Photo: Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports)

Probably like most fans and pundits, we don't quite know what Packers team will show up: the one that played the Steelers nose-to-nose for 59 minutes and 56 seconds of the game last week, or the one that laid down and scored nothing against a mediocre Baltimore team...both losses. If Hundley actually progressed to the degree we saw against the Steelers, the Packers have a chance for a win. If he plays as he did vs. the Ravens, probably not.

It's not all on Hundley, of course, Aside from LB Blake Martinez and a few others on defense, tackling has generally been abysmal, the pass rush non-existent and the secondary a sieve. Is it the players or the coordinator and scheme (here we go again on that annual conversation, right?)? Whatever the situation, the Packers need to win every game from here on out. Likely? No. But you can't win 'em all before you win the first one. And that's today.

The Prediction

The Packers are favored by 3.5 points at the time of this writing. With Buccaneers' QB Jameis Winston in his first game today after a 3-game hiatus, there will have to be some rust. Still, he's a dangerous runner and could give the Pack's defense fits if they don't get to him early and often. The Bucs will be missing 2 starters from their offensive line, which should benefit the Packers pass rush...at least, theoretically. On defense, the Bucs should give Hundley opportunities in the secondary. And if Packers RB Jamaal Williams can reprise his effort of last week, that will also help open things up for Hundley and the receivers.

This game was once referred to as the "Bay of Pigs' game when it was a twice-per-season division meeting. Neither team was good back in those days, as the name implies. While it's not a return to those times, the game could devolve to poor play if players don't play like the season is the line, which it is for the Packers. Weather will not be a factor today, as it will be a positively balmy December 3 game at Lambeau Field.

After it's all said and done, we believe the Pack will do enough to win.

We're calling it Packers 24 - Buccaneers 20.

Go Pack Go!!!

NFL Week 16: Packers vs. Buccaneers Preview and Prediction

After last week's stumble in Buffalo, some Packers fans are a bit leery of another letdown in Tampa today. Let's just make this clear: the 10-4 Green Bay Packers will not lose to the 2-12 Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Not. Going. To. Happen. Period.

Yes, we know: on any given day blah blah blah. Today, however, is not that day.

How do we know? For starters, Packers QB Aaron Rodgers has never had two bad games back to back. And, yes, the Buffalo game was a bad one for Rodgers, admittedly. But his history is that he follows up a performance like that with a good one. So, we expect a good one.

Secondly, as this article in the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel points out, "Rodgers is 8-2 for his career against Lovie-coached teams, and in his last six against Frazier, he's 5-1 with 18 touchdowns and one interception." The Lovie being referred to is, of course, formers Bears head coach Lovie Smith, now Tampa's head coach; Frazier is Leslie Frazier, formerly the ViQueens head coach and now the Buc's defensive coordinator. They have lots of experience in Chicago and Minnesota against the Pack...losing more often than not regardless of locale. Expect that trend to continue today, despite what will likely be a very good effort from a team that just doesn't have the talent that fills the Packers' roster.

As we know, the Packers have had trouble against some of the better defenses in the league; in fact, three of their four losses have come against Top 5 defenses. Good news, Packers fans! The Buccaneers' defense ranks 25th.

The Josh McCown-led Bucs offense ranks 30th in the league. They have capable running backs and a very good, big, strong rookie receiver in Mike Evans. So the Packers defense will have to show up, as they did big time in Buffalo (recall that it wasn't the defense that was at fault last week, holding the Bills to just 4 field goals).

Prediction
With Washington's improbable win over the Eagles last evening, with a Packers win today the team will secure a spot in the playoffs, regardless of what the train-wreck Chicago Bears do or don't do in their game against Detroit today. We would expect the battle in Lambeau next week to be for the NFC North title.

But first, the Packers have to take care of business in Florida. They will. The Packers are favored by 12 points.

We're calling it 38-17 Packers.

Go Pack Go!!!

So long, Fuzzy
We can't let this week go by without remembering Packers Hall of Famer and Glory Years left guard, Fuzzy Thurston. He passed away recently, and a memorial service was held for him at Lambeau Field on Friday. I had the pleasure of meeting Fuzzy a few times briefly. He always had a smile, a handshake, and a sparkle in his eye. His life wasn't always easy. He had both business ups and downs and health problems over the years, including throat cancer which left him with a lasting rasp from surgical procedures. But none of that diminished his great spirit. You''ll see that spirit on full display in this video of Fuzzy singing. Fellow great, Jerry Kramer, is also in the video, posted by his daughter Alicia. Enjoy this great memory of the one and only Fuzzy Thurston. Thanks, Fuzzy. Rest in Peace.

What the Favre? Part 21

We haven't done a "What the Favre?" segment in a long time. But now, with an interview with Ol' #4 appearing in the new issue of Men's Journal (on sale Friday for those who wish to line up), we have yet another opportunity to ask that question. Because every time Brett speaks, well..."What the Favre?".

According to excerpts released and/or picked up by other outlets, it becomes quite clear that Brett's decision to un-retire (for the first time) had nothing to do with just wanting to play football, as he had so often claimed. It was, as most realize by now, purely for the chance to get back at the Packers and GM Ted Thompson. He says so himself. According to an excerpt appearing in the Minneapolis Star-Tribune, Favre says, "They (the Packers) made it pretty clear I wasn't going to play there, and I said, 'How about the Vikings or even the Lions?' I wanted to stay in the same division. They said that wasn't going to happen, but maybe Tampa. I said, 'Fine, trade me to Tampa. I'll whip your asses in week four.' Maybe that was a mistake. I'm flying back to Hattiesburg thinking I'm going to the Bucs, and I get off the plane and Bus tell me I've been traded to the Jets. I said, 'Bull,' but they were smart; they released the news so I'd look like an ass if I backed out."

How much of a rocket scientist do you have to be to understand that when he said he wanted to play for the ViQueens or the Lions -- the Lions, for the love of God! -- that it was all about revenge..."whip your asses" as Brett puts it? And isn't it interesting that Brett had always said that he never wanted to play for the ViQueens originally. No, not at all. Yet, here he is saying it was the first thing out of his mouth.

Question: what, if anything, can we believe that he says? Not that he's going to retire. That was said and then changed twice (it was just twice, wasn't it???). Not when he says he just wanted to play and it didn't matter who with. Clearly, from his comments that wasn't the case, even at the start of unretirement #1.

As has been said here many times over the last couple years, it is so sad that someone who was and is such a great quarterback and a Packers legend has basically turned himself into a running sitcom every time he speaks. About the only thing we can count on, no matter what he says one way or another, is that he will be back for another season with the 'Queens trying yet again to sweep the Pack as was accomplished last season. We'll see how that all works out this season.

You can find excerpts from the Men's Journal and Star-Tribune articles here and here respectively.