Week 11: Packers vs. Giants Preview and Prediction

Well, this is certainly a fine mess. The Green Bay Packers are sitting at 5-4, looking up at the Detroit Lions and the Chicago Bears in the NFC North, and with a two-game losing streak at work. Yowza. Today, the Pack travels east to meet the New York Giants, who are on a three-game winning streak after starting the season 0-6.

The Packers' skid is certainly due to the plethora of injuries finally catching up with them, particularly the injury two weeks ago to QB Aaron Rodgers. The Pack started a total of three different quarterbacks over the past 20 years; now, in the last three games, they have had to start three different quarterbacks. Today, it's former University of Wisconsin QB Scott Tolzien. Tolzien acquitted himself quite well in last week's loss to the Eagles, completing 24 passes in 39 attempts for 280 yards, one touchdown and two interceptions. Especially considering he'd only been promoted from the practice squad earlier that week and was forced to come into the game after the first series when Seneca Wallace was forced out with a hamstring injury. With virtually no game preparation, he led the team up and down the field very effectively.

Packers QB Scott Tolzien
(Photo: Jeff Hanisch, USA TODAY Sports)

Followers of the University of Wisconsin football team when Tolzien was the quarterback there a few years ago know that he may not be flashy, but he is an extremely capable and smart quarterback who has a stronger arm than folks generally give him credit for. Tolzien won the Johnny Unitas Golden Arm Award in 2010, given to the nation's top senior quarterback. He led the nation that season in completion percentage (74.3) and ranked fourth nationally in quarterback rating (169.8). Tolzien holds UW team records for career completion percentage (68.5) and career pass efficiency (154.4). John C. Unitas, Jr., president of the Johnny Unitas Golden Arm Educational Foundation, said in a statement about Tolzien at the time of the award: "Scott Tolzien personifies everything that my father stood for. He is not simply an outstanding quarterback, but an outstanding individual who is a leader both on and off the field, tirelessly devoting himself to his team, to his community, and to being a mentor for others."

So, should Packer fans be nervous today? It's Tolzien's first NFL start, after all. The answer is a clear "No." As a headline in today's USA Today said, "Packers 'still dangerous' even with Scott Tolzien under center". Indeed. Read that one for yourself here if you care to.

Defense is the key
Tolzien and the offense will be able to keep the Packers in the game with a chance to win. That's not going to be the problem today. The big question is really the Packers' defense, which has failed to perform well in each of the team's last two losses, fading especially late in the game. The defense has to perform the way it is capable of doing, the way they were performing when the Pack went on its own three-game winning streak.

LB Clay Matthews will be playing, it is anticipated, without the club he wore to protect his surgically-repaired thumb last week. That really took away from his productivity. Whether the new set up will allow him to use his hands the way he is accustomed to remains to be seen. Also, whether Packers defenders, particularly in the secondary, can cover Giants' receivers and don't give up the big play over the top the way they have recently -- and tackle! -- is another question today. If the defense could generate a couple turnovers today -- something they have not been able to do well this season -- that would also go a long way to helping the Pack to victory.

Bottom line: the defense needs to take charge today. Giants QB Eli Manning is prone to throwing interceptions when pressured, as was the case when they were off to their 0-6 start. If there is no pressure, it could be a long day in the Packers secondary.

Prediction
Most pundits are picking the Giants to beat the Packers today. The oddsmakers favor the Giants by 3.5 points, with an over-under total of 41.5 points.

This is one that my head tells me the Giants will win. They are on a hot streak, they have three good receivers and a very good quarterback when he's not under pressure. And they have a defense licking their chops to get a go at a young quarterback getting his first NFL start…on the road.

But the Packers need this game right now. The offense -- the team! -- needs to show that it can win without Aaron Rodgers…he doesn't play defense, after all. And that will likely be the make-or-break of the game today: the Packers defense. If they play like they did earlier in the season, the Packers can win this game; if they play like they have the last two weeks, the Packers will lose.

This is a tough one to call, Packer fans. I did my part today: I put on Packers gear I haven't worn yet this season…gotta get some good mojo going today. You do your part. And then let's pray the Packers do their part.

I'm calling this 20-17 Packers.

Go Pack Go!!!

Packers drop game to Eagles, 27-13

For the first time since Aaron Rodgers became the Green Bay Packers starting quarterback in 2008, the Pack lost two games in a row at Lambeau Field. And, as we know, Rodgers had nothing to do with either of the losses. Knocked out with a fractured collarbone on the first series of last Monday night's game against the Chicago Bears, Rodgers was on the sidelines today. In his place, veteran backup Seneca Wallace got the start. The entire week of practice was devoted to implementing an offensive scheme that would play to Wallace's strengths. Practice squad quarterback and former Wisconsin Badger, Scott Tolzien, was elevated to the backup slot.

So much for that idea.

Scott Tolzien photo by Jeff Hanisch/USA TODAY Sports

For the second game in a row, the Packers starting quarterback was lost for the game. In today's game against the Eagles, Wallace was lost on a third down play -- on the first offensive series -- with a groin injury. Enter Tolzien.

To his credit, Tolzien didn't look flustered. He actually looked in good command for having little to no reps with the first unit during the week. He finished the day 24 for 39, with 280 yards passing, with one touchdown (an NFL first for both him and TE Brandon Bostick) and two interceptions, including a costly one in the endzone and another tipped. Whatever Wallace's status physically, it was announced on air after the game that Tolzien has been named the starter for next week's game against the Giants. (Let's hope he doesn't get injured during the week of practice...which the way the Packers' luck is going is a distinct possibility.) Tolzien had a good arm, some good throws, and it will be interesting to see what he can do with a week's practice with the number one unit under his belt.

What will that first-string offensive unit look like?
There is a question at this point as to what the offensive line will look like this next week. That's because the Packers' season-long injury parade kept on coming again today. Center Evan Dietrich-Smith went out with a knee injury, moving right guard T.J. Lang to center, Don Barclay from tackle to guard, with Marshall Newhouse entering then at tackle. By the end of the game, Barclay was also injured. So who knows who will be starting in front of Tolzien next weekend.

More injuries
Think the injuries to Wallace, Dietrich-Smith and Barclay was enough? Naaaaah. Toss in injuries to Nick Perry, Casey Hayward and Johnny Jolly to the mix. It just keeps coming, folks. Even LG Josh Sitton was quoted as saying that he's starting to wonder if there just isn't something in the water with all the injuries in Green Bay. As bad as 2010 was with injuries, this season might actually be worse. At least in 2010 the Packers still had their starting QB throughout the season.

Everything needed to go right; nothing did
In a game where everything had to go right for the Packers to win, nothing did. The bad omen came early, on a missed 53-yard field goal -- one of two misses on the day -- by Mason Crosby, which clanked off the right upright. Missed interceptions, a fumble recovery deep in Eagles territory that turned into zero points, not much went right on this day.

Defense fails again
For the second game in a row, the Packers defense -- after holding tight for most of the first half -- did very little to help the effort in the second half. There wasn't much of a pass rush again. The secondary left receivers wide open. It was uninspired. And for yet another game, the defense didn't really generate any turnovers of significance. Yes, there was that late fumble recovery on a sack of QB Nick Foles, in the Eagles red zone, but the offense was unable to turn that into points.

Where do we go from here, Packers fans? One could say that if you are a person of faith go to church, synagogue, temple, mosque, whatever. It seems as if Divine intervention is needed at this point, or at least until Aaron Rodgers returns.

Other than that...grab the dramamine because it looks as if it's going to be a bumpy ride for at least several weeks if not the remainder of the season.

Week 10: Packers vs. Eagles Preview and Prediction

This is a game which looked ripe for the picking a week ago: the Green Bay Packers playing the Philadelphia Eagles at Lambeau Field. The Pack, so we thought, would be coming off a big Monday night win against Da Bearz, having secured their lead at the top of the NFC North. This would begin a stretch of games for the Packers where the team could separate itself from the rest of the division.

Funny thing...that Monday night game...well, arguably the best quarterback in the NFL, namely one Aaron Rodgers, got hurt in the first quarter of the game. Not only lost for the game but for likely the next four to six weeks. Ouch! In more ways than one.

After 21 years of consecutive starts by Brett Favre and Aaron Rodgers (with two tossed in via Matt Flynn), the law of averages finally caught up with the Packers. For the first time in nearly a generation, Packer fans, we know what it feels like to be pretty much like most other teams in the league. It's not a good feeling, is it?

So, today and for the next month probably at least, we will see an offense lead by veteran backup QB Seneca Wallace and now number 2 QB Scott Tolzien.

Is there any chance for a win in today's game? The oddsmakers don't seem to think so, designating the Packers as now 1-point underdogs at the time of this posting. But for a glimmer of hope, be sure to read this tremendously insightful article by Bob McGinn of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel.

Whether the Packers are able to step up their game in the absence of Rodgers will be the question of the day. McGinn cites examples showing what's possible. But realism also dictates that we have to acknowledge it's going to be a much different game than what we are used to seeing. Expect a big dose of Eddie Lacy on offense, perhaps with more balance by additional carries by James Starks. There will likely be more roll-outs to get Wallace outside the pocket where he could also use his legs, which could be more valuable today than his arm. There won't be a lot of downfield passing. Expect shorter routes.

Defense and special teams will need to account for some scoring today, and not just by way of field goals. The Packers have been woeful at takeaways this season. If they hope to win this and some of the upcoming games without Rodgers, the defense will have to generate turnovers and set the offense up to score short-drive touchdowns...or score them on their own. The return teams will have to also perform well. As McGinn points out, for the Packers to have a good chance to win short drives rather than field-long drives are the order of the day.

Prediction
What, then, do we make of this game? If ever there was a crapshoot game, this is it. We have no idea what Seneca Wallace can bring to the table after a week working with the number one unit, nor how the players around him will raise their games. We also have no clue as to how head coach Mike McCarthy will scheme the offense to take advantage of whatever it is that Wallace can bring to the field as his unique abilities. We have no idea as to how the defense will stop a red-hot quarterback in the form of Nick Foles; if they give him the time they gave Josh McCown Monday evening it could be a long and disappointing afternoon for the Packers.

With Rodgers, this is a game the Packers win. Without Rodgers...? This game will give us an early insight into whether this team can hang in the division race long enough to see Rodgers' return make a difference going down a playoff stretch run, or whether the season will be an ultimate, injury-riddled disappointment.

The Eagles are 4-1 on the road this season, 0-4 at home; might have been better odds had the Pack been playing in Philly today.

Naturally, the green 'n' gold-colored glasses are still on. We're calling this 23-20 Packers. We are probably in small company today as it seems many are picking the Eagles. So it goes. The Packers -- despite the MASH unit of injuries -- is still the more talented team overall. But whether they can execute and form a new identity apart from Rodgers for the time being is the big question.

It's not going to be pretty. But the team needs the "W" for many reasons today. After Monday evening's disappointment -- and flat defensive performance -- expect something better today. It should be just enough, especially with the probable return of LB Clay Matthews to the lineup. Even with one hand in a cast, he's better than most with full use of both hands.

Go Pack Go!!!

Packers lose more than game to Bears

While Monday night's loss to the Chicago Bears left the Green Bay Packers still tied for first place in the NFC North, that was about the only good thing that could be said for the game. That and Eddie Lacy's continued ascendency as a great rookie running back.

For far worse than the 27-20 loss to Da Bearz was the first quarter loss of franchise quarterback Aaron Rodgers to a shoulder injury. It was a very odd sight indeed to see Rodgers on the sideline, out of uniform.

Veteran backup Seneca Wallace was thrown into the fray and, obviously, the game plan and game changed considerably from an offensive standpoint. Even against a backup QB leading Chicago, the Pack somehow couldn't find enough offense to matter. Worse, the defense didn't hold up their side of the bargain on this night, getting no pressure on Josh McCown, unable to cover Chicago's large receivers, and missing tackles that should have been made. Despite two great special teams plays -- a blocked punt and a surprise recovered onside kick -- this was a night where the Packers just couldn't make up for the loss of Rodgers, let alone all the other starters who were still sidelined. Oh, we should also note that staring right guard T.J. Lang sustained a concussion during the game, requiring a shifting of the lineup, as well. Backup linebacker Sam Barrington was also hurt during the game.

To say it was not a good night for the Packers is an understatement.

What about Rodgers?
The status of Rodgers' injury was unclear last night but became a bit more understandable today. Rodgers himself stated on his weekly radio program this afternoon that he had sustained a fractured collarbone, "a significant injury" as he put it. While the nature of the injury was known, Rodgers said no timeline was in place for his return. He said he'd work to be back as quickly as he could, but more tests and time would be needed to get a better picture of things.

In his press conference this afternoon, head coach Mike McCarthy indicated that he felt a bit better today after talking to the medical staff about Rodgers' prognosis. He intimated that, from his point of view, the availability of Rodgers would likely be on a week-by-week basis. If you want to read between the lines, perhaps Rodgers and the Packers dodged a bullet: instead of being lost for most or the rest of season, it's possible Rodgers might be able to return in time for the Thanksgiving Day game at Detroit. Maybe even before. That would be great, getting him back to go down the stretch. That should also be the time when the Packers will have Clay Matthews and Randall Cobb back, as well.

In the meantime, the Pack will have to get by with Wallace as the starter against the Eagles (in Green Bay), the Giants (in New York/New Jersey/wherever the heck they play), and the ViQueens (in Green Bay). These are not currently powerhouses of the NFL, but as things stand at the moment, one questions whether the Packers are, either. If the Packers can win at least one of these games, and get Rodgers back for the game against the Lions, the team will still be in the hunt going down the stretch run of the season. Backing up Wallace, at least for the time being, is former University of Wisconsin QB Scott Tolzien who was just promoted today from the practice squad to the 53-man roster.

Other roster moves
Whether by circumstance or coincidence, the Packers made a few other roster moves today in addition to those already noted. TE Jermichael Finley was formally placed on the injured reserve list effectively ending his season. OT Derek Sherrod was removed from the PUP list and added to the 53-man roster.

Where do the Packers go from here?
That's the question Packer fans and sports pundits alike began to ask last evening and all through the day today. Some are of the opinion the Packers are done, the season is over. Others believe the Packers can stay within spitting distance of the NFC North lead during Rodgers' absence, and make a full stretch run upon his return. Honestly, though, no one knows.

Clearly, a now pertinent discussion has also begun on the weak spot in GM Ted Thompson's approach to roster-building this season: the backup quarterback spot. Granted, over the last 20 years or so, it hasn't been an issue in Green Bay. Now, it is. Whether Seneca Wallace can manage a game in such a way as to keep the Pack in games, or even win one or two, remains to be seen. But not having a solid backup in place going into training camp and the season itself was a gap that may haunt Thompson at the end of this season. Right now, I think Thompson and many Packer fans would have been very pleased to have someone like Josh McCown ready to step in when Rodgers went down.

Time will tell how all this shakes out.

All we know for sure is that the Packers will have to try to win a challenging game on Sunday against the Philadelphia Eagles without the best quarterback in football pulling the trigger.

Let us pray...