2023 Season Divisional Round Playoff Game: Packers vs. 49ers Preview & Prediction

While all the attention is rightly on Saturday evening's NFC Divisional Playoff game between the Green Bay Packers and the San Francisco 49ers, we have to take a moment to acknowledge what is — factually — the biggest upset in NFL history: the 7th seed Packers beating the 2nd seed Dallas Cowboys last Sunday. Not just beating the 'boys, but smokin' them. 27-0 in the 1st half. A final score of 48-32 with Dallas' final two scores coming in garbage time. Never before had a 7th seed won a playoff game. Well done Jordan Love, Aaron Jones, Matt LaFleur, Joe Barry (?) and everyone in the Packers organization. Wow. Just wow.

Now, let's get to the game in Santa Clara, shall we?

If Packers QB Jordan Love continues his lights-out performance

Saturday evening, the Packers have a chance to pull off another

upset win and find themselves in the NFC Championship game.

(Photo via the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel)

The Preview

As it turns out, with this game, the Packers and Niners will now have faced each other 10 times in the playoffs, more than any other pair of teams in the NFL. Amazing. Of the prior 9, San Fran has a 5-4 edge, with the Packers having lost four straight. Meh. Time to change the script, right, Packers fans?

There is admittedly a degree of difference in the overall team talent level at present between these two teams. Yet, all the young Packers don't seem to care about that. If they did, they would have likely lost in Dallas last weekend. All this Green Bay team knows how to do at this point is to play hard and to play for each other. It doesn't matter who gets the ball, who has to block, who has to tackle or cover. And head coach Matt LaFleur's wide-open play-calling has launched a first-year starting quarterback (i.e., Jordan Love) into the stratosphere of quarterbacking, and has solidified his status as "The Guy" not just this year but going forward. And not just going forward but, to the horror of Bears' fans and others, perhaps for the next decade or more. (On a related note, and particularly for my great friend Billy Da Bears Fan, Jordan Love has thrown for more than 4,000 yards in his first year as the starter; in the entire history of the Chicago Bears they have never had a single QB throw for more than 4,000 yards. Just in case you want to know.)

The Niners are solid on offense and defense, hence their number 1 seed and the reason they are currently favored to win by a wide margin. And, if the Packers do not match San Fran's physicality, they won't be in the game. The game will ultimately be determined, as has so much of the Pack's season, by the defense. If they show up — as they have for the last month or so — they can stay in the game. If they can create a turnover or two, they can help win the game. That's no throw-away comment: when the Niners have no turnovers, they were 8-0 this season; when they had one or more turnovers, they were 4-5 this season. If the Packers want to increase their chances for a win, they need to get to QB Brock Purdy and help create a turnover or two. Do that, and the odds of a win go up; don't get near him and ... well, it makes things more difficult.

The Niners defense also presents its challenges, as all football fans know. The O-line will really need one of its best games of the season to protect Jordan Love as well as to make an opening now and then for RB Aaron Jones. As all Packers fans know, the return of Jones and his 100+ yards rushing per game over the last three games has been a key to the Pack's win streak. Getting 100 yards rushing in this game will be a challenge. But if Jones can get 100+ yards combed rushing and receiving, that would be a significant boost to the Pack's chances.

Which Packers receiver will get 100+ yards receiving? Who knows. Over the span of the past three games, three different receivers have accomplished that feat. The Packers have a lot of weapons for the Niners to worry about. If the play-calling and scheming are in sync, the Pack can keep San Francisco if not exactly on their heels at least giving them a pause now and then ... which might be just enough.

Now, another factor to consider in this game is the weather. Yes, yes, we're not talking cold and snow; the game is in the Bay area (as the San Fran locals say) not the Green Bay area. That means, this time of year, rain. There is an 80 percent chance of rain throughout the day and into the evening, although it seems from the various forecasts that the heaviest rain will take place Friday evening and Saturday morning. Then, it's hit and miss. But at least one local forecaster is advising those attending the game to bring some rain gear, just in case. Winds of 10 to 15 mph at game time are expected, but again, a bit of a moving target forecast-wise. Not horrible winds if that's indeed the case, at least in dry conditions.

As former Carolina Panthers (and Wisconsin Badgers) punter, Brad Nortman, said on his radio show Friday, these wet conditions actually will act as a bit of an equalizer for the Packers. It tends, in his experience, to help the defense as offensive skill players — running backs, returners and receivers — need to think a bit more about whether or not they can make a particular cut, for example. The QB needs to think about whether he can make a certain throw (btw, QB trivia: Jordan Love's hands are larger than Brock Purdy's making for a better grip on the ball). And place kickers need to be sure of their plant when making kick attempts. The argument could be made that the Packers are probably more used to playing in adverse weather conditions than are the Niners. Who knows? All we do know is that the wet field, rain and wind conditions will likely play a role in the game. To which team's advantage, and to what degree, we will have to wait to see.

We also can't forget the referees in this game, especially given how poorly the NFL refs performed overall this season in getting calls right...which includes not making calls when none were needed. Unfortunately, the crew referring this game will be that of referee Alex Kemp, whose regular-season crew led the NFL with an average of 15.3 flags per game. And guess what? Both the Pack and Niners finished in the top third of the NFL for most flags this season. What are the odds that some bad and game-changing calls will be made? Oy. But both teams will have to play with this crew calling the shots. Let us pray.

The Prediction

Depending upon who you are looking at, the Niners are favored by 9-1/2 to 10 points over the Pack at the time of this posting. The Packers are used to being the underdog most of this season, and certainly in the playoffs. In other words, we've got 'em just where we want them.

There are so many story lines at play in this game, as there were against the Cowboys. The weather and the referees are outside factors that will affect both teams in various ways. If the Packers play at the same level they have over the last month-plus, they can stay in the game and win. Against any team. If they don't get off to a fast start and get beat physically, they will have a hard time pulling out the win.

We are of the view (gold 'n' green-colored, of course) that the Packers will keep things rolling. San Fran has been sitting and didn't look exceptional in their last few games. Of the two, the Packers are the hot team. And you gotta go with who's hot.

We're calling it Packers 31 - 49ers 30.

Go Pack Go!!!

2021-22 NFL Divisional Playoffs: Packers vs. 49ers Preview and Prediction

Well, here we go, Packers fans: the Divisional Playoffs! After having the lone NFC bye week by virtue of their #1 seeding, the Pack meet up with the San Francisco 49ers this evening at storied Lambeau Field. We welcome the warm-weather visitors to Green Bay for a night game...in mid-January...where there could be a bit of snow in the air...the game time air temps in the low teens or single digits...and with the wind chill perhaps even dipping below 0 degrees. Have a nice visit!

The Preview

Not really sure how much of a preview to even bother with. The Pack last played in Detroit two weeks ago in a game that meant nothing in their standing, and resulted in a loss. Big whoop. Still finished with a tied-for-league-best 13-4 record.

Some players that had seen limited action this season will be available tonight, among them Za'Darius Smith and Whitney Mercilus who will boost the Pack's pass rush capability and QB sack potential. Also available will be offensive tackle Billy Turner and possibly CB Jaire Alexander, although the later is listed as questionable on the injury report, as is LT David Bakhtiari. The only player on the Packers' injury report listed as doubtful for the game is WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling. However, WR Randall Cobb was activated off IR, so QB Aaron Rodgers will have one of his most trusted receivers available to him, especially in the slot.

For the Niners, two of their top two defensive players, Nick Bosa and Fred Warner — both injured in last week's win over the Cowboys — are cleared for play. QB Jimmy Garoppolo will start once again despite his right thumb and shoulder issues; it will be interesting to see how well he holds up if the Packers can shut down the Niners running game and force him to have to pass to win. Would rookie backup QB Trey Lance see playing time tonight? Possibly. The Packers defense should have prepared for both this week, with Jimmy G the primary consideration at QB. 

But the Packers also have to be concerned about holding phenom WR/RB/Everything Deebo Samuel in check. He's going to get some yards, one way or another. But the Pack can't let him be the difference in the game.

If the Packers defense — line, linebackers and secondary — play to their capability, they should be able to generate a turnover or two. And when they have done that in the past, they typically come away with a win.

Still, we hope (and pray) the Packers special teams don't give the game away. With the special teams' overall league performance at the bottom of the barrel, we're at the time of the season where breakdowns and mistakes just can't happen. Because if they do, even one such instance can be the difference between a win and a loss.

While Packers QB Aaron Rodgers will be wearing the home green jersey,

he will still be signaling that the Packers are Number 1

after they beat the 49ers at Lambeau Field tonight.

(Photo by Mark J. Rebilas / USA Today Sports)

The Prediction

This game and how it concludes is all within the Packers grasp. They worked hard to get the number 1 seed, the bye week, and the home field advantage. They have the MVP leading not just the offense but the entire team. They have the winningest head coach in NFL history through his first three seasons. They have talent on both sides of the ball. Yes, the game still has to be played and the weather conditions will be brutal for both sides. But the Packers have something to prove this season after two consecutive losses in the NFC Championship Game. They need to come out fast — something they typically haven't done after bye weeks — and force the Niners to pass. Turnovers will come if they are able to do that.

My good friend Billy Da Bearz Fan even called earlier today to give me his prediction: 28-27. He wouldn't say who comes out on top because, as a Bearz fan, he would spontaneously combust if he said the Packers would win ... but I know what he meant: Packers. Of course.

My brother-in-law (and 49ers fan) texted me with his call: 28-20 Packers. Remember, this is from a Niners fan.

The Packers are favored by 5-1/2 points at the time of this writing. In a game such as this, not being a betting person, I don't care about whether the Packers cover the spread or not; I care that they win the game.

We're calling it Packers 27 - 49ers 24. Hope it's not that close but, again, just get that win. Get to the NFC Championship Game and make the third time (in a row) the charm.

Go Pack Go!!!

NFL Week 10 Review of Packers win vs. Panthers, NFL Week 12 Preview vs. 49ers — Yes, still another twofer

If it's seemed as if it's been a while since we've checked in, Packers fans, it's because it has been. Note the headline: a week 10 review and a week 12 preview. What? What happened to week 11??? That was our bye week, kids. Well, not "ours" but the Pack's. So, since it was so long since our last post, let's just remind you, dear reader, that the Packers beat Carolina 24-16 in that game.

Let's just mention two key aspects of that game, although there were certainly more. One was Panthers head coach "Riverboat" Ron Rivera going for the 2-point conversion early in the 4th quarter and failing to convert. He had no need to do so. But we're glad the miss kept his team in a position where it would have had to have both gotten another TD and 2-point conversion just to tie. As it was, the Panthers almost got the touchdown. Almost. This was the second key play we wish to point out: with 4-seconds left on the game clock, Carolina put the ball in the hands of its best player, RB Christian McCaffrey. With only a couple yards to go, the Packers defense rose up and stopped McCaffrey just shy of the goal line. WHEW! Game over. Packers win, Panthers lose. The Pack headed into their bye week with a record of 8-2 and a game against the now 9-1 San Francisco 49ers on the horizon.

This photo from the 2018 meeting between the Packers and 49ers
pretty well portrays what will likely be a similar battle today.
(Photo: Adam Wesley/USA TODAY NETWORK-Wis)

49ers Preview & Prediction

The Niners have the best record in the NFC not by coincidence. They are solid performers on offense and particularly on defense. Highly ranked. The counter to that record standing is that they haven't hit the hard part of their season yet. In fact, the Packers begin a real tough portion of the 49ers' schedule.

While there aren't many perceived weaknesses, QB Jimmy Garoppolo is subject to interceptions; he has 10 interceptions on the season, with interceptions thrown in all but two games. In the last two games, he's had three interceptions. So if the Packers defense can get some pressure on him, it will certainly increase the likelihood of a pick...or two...two would be good.

The Niners have a good rushing attack and can pressure a defense over the middle particularly if TE George Kittle plays today. He's been battling knee and ankle problems but is expected to play today. As Packers fans know, over the middle has been a soft spot all season for the Pack's D; they need to figure out a way to limit the potential damage Kittle and others might cause running free.

There's a lot more that could be said, of course, but let's just get on with the prediction, shall we?

We see this as an extremely tight game. The Packers are the healthier of the two teams, but the 49ers are playing at home, giving them the upside on a 3-point spread at this writing. The rankings would tell you that the 49ers are the better team. But the Packers have the better quarterback in Aaron Rodgers. He also has some rushing and receiving weapons that enable him to spread things around, which will hopefully keep the San Fran defense a bit off guard now and then.

This seems to be a pick 'em type of game, perhaps one where the team that has the ball last wins. The Pack's defense has experience with making big, last minute (or second) stops. We think Green Bay's QB and bend-don't-break defense will be able to do just enough to come away with the win and the #1 slot in the NFC rankings. Which, oh, by the way, means a first round playoff bye and home field advantage. Long way to go in the season yet, but wouldn't that be a nice gift at the end of tonight? Yes, yes it would.

We're calling it Packers 24 - 49ers 23.

Go Pack Go!!!

P.S. A guest prediction of sorts...from my wife...who hails from the Bay area: 49ers in a close one...27-24 over the Pack. No doubt the in-laws would join her in that view.

2018 NFL Week 6: Packers vs. 49ers Preview & Prediction

A few words about the Detroit game...

Doesn't it always seem as if something goofy happens when the Packers play at Detroit? Whether for or against the Pack, something odd always seems to occur. In last week's disappointment, the Packers racked up all sorts of offensive stats, but still wound up losing. While the loss can't all be pinned on K Mason Crosby's five missed kicks (that is not a typo -- 4 field goals and a missed extra point)...yes, even just a few of those would have been the difference in the game...what about the play calling? QB Aaron Rodgers' two fumbles? Dropped passes? No pass rush? The blame is across the board. OK, good, now that we've got that out of our systems, let's move on to tonight's game at Lambeau Field against San Francisco, shall we?

Mason Crosby (right) walks off with Hunter Bradly
after missing one of his five field goals at Detroit.
(Photo by Paul Sancya, AP)

The Preview

The Packers are favored by 9-1/2 points going into this game. Pundits are universally picking the Pack to win and win big. That's if the offense can get off to a faster start (they have been outscored 42-13 in the first quarter this season), play without penalties (averaging 8 for more than 80 yards per game) and turnovers, and score TDs when they get into the red zone, all of which have been a challenge so far in this 2-2-1 season.

Otherwise, it could be another game where the Packers clean up statistically and somehow still lose the game. Certainly, the Niners are not the calibre of Detroit, and have had 17 players on the injury report this week. But the Packers are missing key players, too, including wide receivers Randall Cobb and Geronimo Allison. If they fall behind early as has been the case this season, the game plan goes out the window and you're trying to play catch up. There's no need for that. Especially this evening.

The Prediction

This is a game, coming off last Sunday's debacle and heading into the bye week, that the Packers should win and -- yes -- need to win.

We're calling it Packers 31 - 49ers 13.

Go Pack Go!!!

Also, Go Brewers!!!

RIP Jim Taylor

We were saddened to learn over the weekend of the passing of legendary Packers fullback, Jim Taylor. He was always one of my favorite Lombardi-era Packers. He was one of the toughest running backs to ever play the game, rushing for more than 8,000 yards in far fewer games than go into a season these days. He was also the first of those Lombardi Packers to be elected to the Pro Football Hall of Fame. Thanks for the memories, Jim. They are many.

Packers legendary FB Jim Taylor
(Photo by Ernest W. Anheuser, Milwaukee Sentinel)

Packers 30 - 49ers 19

The Packers played like at least some thought they might be capable of playing: pretty well. Not perfect. The defense gave up three explosive plays. There was some sloppy special teams coverage in the fourth quarter. There were at least two occasions on which the Packers offense were inside the opponent's 10-yard line and could only come away with field goals.

But...the defense played with more fire than they did over the past several games, coming up with three turnovers, including a late key interception in the endzone by rookie LB, A. J. Hawk. Donald Driver had another spectacular game, going over 1,000 receiving yards for the third straight year. Greg Jennings played through his bum ankle and had several good catches as well. And there was a semblence of a ground game today, with Ahman Green and Vernand Morency combining for 136 yards rushing.

So, with three games left, the Packers have exceeded their win total for all of last year, going to 5-8 on the season. And Brett Favre looks like he's having fun again. That's always a good thing. The Packers now return home for two games, against Detroit and the ViQueens, before finishing the season on New Year's Eve day in Chicago. The Pack are now 4-3 on the road and 1-5 at home. Let's just hope the team can use this game as a springboard to close the season out strong, beginning with a win next weekend against Detroit. Sweeping the ViQueens would be sweet. And nothing would be finer than ruining Da Bearz'  New Year's Eve party. Ah...with this win...we can still dream!

San Francisco, Here We Come!

OK, Packer fans...it's about 5 hours to game time. The 5-7 49ers are currently listed as 4-1/2 point favorites over the 4-8 Pack. Guess with the performances of these two clubs recently, that makes sense: just a little extra than home field advantage going San Fran's way. Then throw some rain into the mix, and things favor a ground game...which the 'Niners have with Frank Gore and the Packers...well, we did have a running game once upon a time...didn't we?

These teams are, at this stage of the season, fairly evenly matched. When the season started, most folks looking at the schedule would have penciled in a "W" for the Pack. Not anymore. Both teams are at the bottom of the league in scoring defense, each giving up about 27 points per game, and more than 340 yards per game to opposing offenses. On the offensive side of the ball, each team scores about 18 points per game.

What are the keys to the game? For the Packers, finding a running game...making more than a handful of third-down conversions...taking advantage of any turnovers by scoring touchdowns...scoring inside the red zone...stopping the opponent's running game...not giving up big plays downfield...playing as if there is still something left to play for. Hey, kids, football ain't rocket science!

But can the Packers actually do it? Can they pull themselves out of their tailspin? They have been a better road team this year than home team. Call it a toss up.

Draft Talk Starting Early

When local media -- i.e., the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel -- starts writing about the April draft with four games left to go in the season you know things aren't good. That's just what happens in today's sports section (print edition - unfortunately, you'll have to subscribe to the Packer Insider service in order to access it online). Naturally, the focus is on the quarterback position. What happens in these last four games may well determine whether Brett Favre returns or retires next season. Or whether he does as some pundits suggest -- even Steve Young on today's ESPN's Sunday NFL Countdown -- and moves to a team that has legitimate Super Bowl aspirations. The jury is still out on heir-apparent, Aaron Rodgers. Many think he might wind up being the Packers' version of Joey Harrington. Thus, it's only natural that QB prospects begin to be considered. If the season ended today (OK, it doesn't, so why do people even say that?!), the Packers would have the sixth pick overall. According to the experts, this year -- like last year -- there is an abundance of good QB prospects to choose from: Brady Quinn, Troy Smith, Brian Brohm, JaMarcus Russell, Drew Stanton, Kevin Kolb, and  Trent Edwards currently lead the way. None, however, present the clear cut strengths of either Matt Leinart or Vince Young coming out last year.

But the Packers may also be in need of a running back, replacing Ahman Green. Unfortunately, once you get past Oklahoma's Adrian Peterson and California's Marshawn Lynch - both juniors who are expected to declare and come out early - the running back prospects seem thin.

The Packers' have needs at just about every position. Where to go? What to do? 'Tis a puzzlement!