2023 NFL Week 10: Packers vs. Steelers Preview & Prediction

OK, Packer fans: we finally got a win last week over the Stafford-less LA Rams. We'll take it. Definitely. It showed what could be possible given the presence and performance of RB Aaron Jones. Also showed what could happen when a young defense flies around with some energy. What are the lessons that can be drawn for today's game against the Steelers? Let's see.

The Preview

Unfortunately, it appears as if CB Jaire Alexander will once again be missing from the playing field. Not good when the Steelers will have a receiver the calibre of George Pickens coming at you (btw, the Pack selected Christian Watson ahead of Pickens in last year's draft). On the other hand, Pittsburgh also has a young QB, Kenny Pickett, running the offense. So if the Packers defense can get pressure on Pickett and hold down Pickens ... well, both would be good. (Thank you, Captain Obvious!)

Rookie safety Anthony Johnson Jr. had a big day

against the Rams. He may or may not see the field today

if Rudy Ford is able to play.

(Photo by Mike De Sisti / The Milwaukee Journal)

The Packers will also likely be without LB Quay Walker and have listed as questionable DL Kenny Clark, S Rudy Ford, C Josh Myers, LT Yosh Nijman and RG Jon Runyan.

The latter three are concerning because the Steelers have a servicable defensive front, led by edge rusher T.J. Watt (remember that draft where the Pack could have picked him and instead went with DB Kevin King? Yeah... "Hulk sad.") The Packers offensive line has been a problem area all season, with very little continuity because of injuries. This has led to a plethora of pre-snap penalties and pressures on QB Jordan Love, who needs all the help and time he can get to connect with his equally young receivers. If Aaron Jones can replicate his game of last week and take pressure off Love, and the O-line can hold its own and minimize the pre-snap mistakes, the Packers have a chance today, despite being on the road.

The Prediction

The Packers and Steelers have both had their challenges this season. The Pack are 3-5 despite having chances to pull out at least 1 or 2 more wins. The Steelers are 5-3 despite, as Ryan Wood notes in his prediction for the game (see here) "an offense that ranks 28th in yards gained and a defense that ranks 31st in yards allowed. Both marks are worse than the Packers (24th offense, 11th defense). The Steelers have one of the few NFL quarterbacks with a lower passer rating than Jordan Love (Kenny Pickett is 26th in the NFL with 81.6, Love 25th with 81.9)." Wood also notes that Steeler head coach Mike Tomlin seems to always put his team in a position to win despite their deficiencies, which are more than they have had in past seasons, it seems.

So it seems as if the game is close, the Packers have tended to not get it done while the Steelers somehow find a way. Pittsburgh is at home and with a crowd that can get into the game if you let them. Neither are to the Pack's benefit.

Pittsburgh is favored by 3 at the time of this writing. Yup, home field advantage.

We're calling this Steelers 20 - Packers 17.

Still ... as always ... GO PACK GO!!!

Packers - Seahawks preseason post-game review

The quick take: Packers 27, Seahawks 24. The Packers pulled out the win in the 4th quarter. Junk time, really.

The good
Let's start with the offense. The first unit has had four possessions in the two preseason games and have scored four touchdowns. Both of the first unit's touchdown drives last evening were for more than 70 yards. QB Aaron Rodgers has been outstanding, being decisive and on target with his throws, including the bombs. TE Jermichael Finley is clearly going to be one of the main weapons on offense this season. The Packers lined him up in several spots last night. The receiving corps will give defenses nightmares. The running game was adequate. Ryan Grant seemed to recover nicely from the concussion he sustained early in last weekend's game and had a few nice runs. Brandon Jackson also ran with authority and scored the game-winning TD late in the game. The offensive line, at least the first unit, never let anyone get near Rodgers. Backup QB Matt Flynn also acquitted himself nicely with the second unit, looking very sharp on his throws. When third and fourth stringers came in in the second half, well, any quarterback would have had problems. The starting defense, despite being short seven starters from last season, also held up...sort of. They did give up two scores to Seattle's starters (who also played much longer than did the Packers' number ones). But some of that can be attributed to shorter playing fields resulting from poor kick coverage.

Which brings us to...

The bad
It is clear that if the Packers have to rely upon some of their backup defensive backs much this season the offense will need to score a bunch each time out. Brandon Underwood, in particular, looked overmatched at every turn. There is also still not much of a pass rush, but remember that there has also been a decidedly vanilla approach to the defense so far.

Other bad news continues to be on the special teams. Punt and kick coverage was generally miserable. And finding reliable returners still seems to be a work in progress. It is clear that undrafted rookie Sam Shields is not ready for prime time. He may be the fastest man on the roster. And he may have picked off a pass while on defense. But his attempt at handling a kickoff was horrendous; he allowed the kick to bounce, didn't get on it fast enough, and the result was a kick recovery by Seattle. Terrible. He looks scared and confused for two weeks in a row.

One of the other bad aspects of the game last evening was the ongoing reminder what a bonehead move it was to cut punter Jon Ryan just prior to the start of the 2008 season. He was booming punts and stopping the ball inside the 5-yard line with almost pitching wedge-style spin. The best that can be said is that at least this year's punter -- whoever it may wind up being -- will not be as bad as last year's. But he also won't be as good as Jon Ryan.

Final Thoughts
The Packers at least were able to chalk up a win, even though it doesn't mean much. The parts of the team we thought would be working well are, so far, and the parts we felt might be problematic are, as well.

Thursday the Colts come to Lambeau for the unofficial warm up to the regular season for most of the starters. Will be curious to see what happens and what adjustments the coaching staff puts in place, particularly for the linebackers and defensive backs if injuries continue to play a part as they have so far in camp. It will also be especially interesting to see how the special teams get their acts together before things count. A lot of work needed there.

Packers boot punter Frost

After 12 games of mediocre punting -- and that's being generous -- punter Derrick Frost has been released by the Packers, according to an official news release from the team. Curiously, the release doesn't indicate who, if anyone, has now been signed as the punter for the rest of the season. It spends more time talking about the Pack finally placing LB Nick Barnett and DE Kenny Pettway on injured reserve and the signings of DT Alfred Malone and CB Joe Porter from the practice squad to take their roster spots.

Frost was booed handily after 3 of his 4 punts yesterday at Lambeau.

Frost ranked 23rd in the league in overall punting. Jon Ryan, who was released the week before the start of the regular season -- at the behest of special teams coach, Mike Stock (and who should also get the boot at the end of the season, by the way) -- to make room for Frost, is currently ranked 5th overall in the league. Nice call, coach Stock.

There are not currently that many good free agent punters available to be picked up, so it will be interesting to see exactly who GM Ted Thompson has in the wings to replace Frost before Sunday's game against the Texans. Hopefully, he won't be taking any more of coach Stock's suggestions. According to a report in the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel, the Packers are going to work out three punters tomorrow: Paul Ernster, Durant Brooks and Jeremy Kapinos. Check out the article for more details.

The Frost departure also means that K Mason Crosby is going to have to get used to yet another holder for his place kicks. This will be his third holder since the last week of preseason.

You can read the full Packers news release here.

Day-after game analysis: What the (fill in the blank)?

My pregame score prediction for last night's Packers-Saints game was 30-24 Packers. Well, I was close on the Pack, who wound up with 29. But the Saints? I was just a smidgen off on that one. But after reviewing my notes, I found that I had actually factored those 24 points as the first half score only for the Saints and forgot that I needed to double it for the final outcome.

OK...that's not true. Just trying to have a little fun. You know, gallows humor kind of thing.

But there was nothing funny about the way the Pack got sliced and diced last night in the Big Easy.

The Pack's season-long flaws were on display for all to see: no pass rush, average linebacking, horrible punter and sieve-like special teams coverage, vanilla defensive schemes. A new starting QB and defensive backfield -- the former actually in the top 5 in the league and the latter heretofore the best in the league -- were also not at their finest. The running game? Looked OK to start, but as the third quarter spiraled out of control, that had to be shelved entirely.

A couple observations, for what they're worth.

First, special teams coach Mike Stock should be sent packing, along with his chosen punter, Derrick Frost, after the season. His dumping of Jon Ryan for Frost has been a major personnel blunder. When a punter is shanking and short-kicking the ball in a dome, you know there's problems. Combine that side of things with horrible punt and kick coverage...think about it: seemingly every time the Packers have a score and get some momentum the kick coverage team gives up a big return and fritters that momentum away in a matter of seconds.

Second, defensive coordinator Bob Sanders should also be shown the door. Now, granted, injuries and GM Ted Thompson combined not to do him any favors in terms of the personnel on the defensive line. Other than Aaron Kampman, the Packers have no pass rush whatsoever. Combine this with the fact that the Packers rarely if ever blitz, and a quarterback like Drew Brees has easy pickin's, just like last night. Example: somewhere along the way the Saints had a 3rd and 15, if I recall. The Packers dropped 8 into coverage and "rushed" 3 -- I put rushed in quotes because it is really more a euphemism than an actual description of what happened. Brees had all the time in the world to find an open receiver and get the first down. Hey, coach Sanders...here's a new scheme for you: why don't you just drop everyone into coverage and not rush anyone at all...if would work just as well as what you're calling now.

Yes, injuries along the D-line are playing a role. But so is the fact that Thompson, with a boatload of salary cap money to spend in the offseason to bolster that line, essentially did nothing.

So, what next? Nothing to do but get ready on a short week for the 8-3 Carolina Panthers. At least it's home at Lambeau. But unless the Pack regains the attitude they had in demolishing Da Bearz -- and gets it back this weekend -- we might as well start thinking about draft picks for next season. We aren't there yet. But with what's broken on the Packers, there are no quick fixes. Chicago and Minnesota play each other this weekend in the HumpDome. The Pack needs to win to stay just one game behind in the Division, even with the win. If they drop the game to Carolina, they'll be 2 back with just 4 games left. Not impossible, especially with games against Da Bearz and the Lions among them. Winning out is what's needed. But is it likely? You need to make that call for yourself.

Which team is the real Packers? The one that smacked Da Bearz? Or the team that got whipped by the Saints? The Packers have been inconsistent all season long. That pattern, regrettably, seems to be the only thing that's been consistent about this team.

Packers punt Ryan, name Flynn #2 QB

News came late yesterday that the Packers released their punter of a couple years, Jon Ryan, and replaced him with former Redskins' punter, Derrick Frost. This was one of those possibilities that seemed to fly under the radar most of training camp. Ryan had a poor opening preseason game against Cincinnati, but boomed his way back to a 54.8 yards per punt average in the last two games.

Apparently, though, it was this inconsistency issue that doomed Ryan's stay with the Packers. There has never been a question about his leg strength. But, to paraphrase Forrest Gump, Ryan's punting was like a box of chocolates: you never knew what you're going to get.

The same, it would seem, could also be said about Frost, however. According to an article in the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel, "Last season, Frost started like gangbusters, averaging 45.9 yards per punt in the first three games, but his season gradually went south, starting with a poor performance against the Packers Oct. 14. He went from fourth in the league in gross average and seventh in net after three games to 28th and 16th after seven weeks." The article continued with the comparative stats: Ryan ranked ninth in gross average (44.4) and 11th in net (37.6) while Frost was 28th (41.0) in gross and 22nd in net (36.4).

So, why the move? Apparently, like many jobs, it's who you know. In this case, Packers' special teams coach, Mike Stock, had coached at Washington when Frost was first trying to land a position as an undrafted free agent. He liked Frost then. In fact, according to the above-mentioned article, "When Stock was special teams coach in Washington, he tried to get Frost to sign as an undrafted rookie, but Frost wound up signing with Philadelphia. Later, Frost attended a tryout camp for NFL Europa where he worked with Stock. 'If it makes any sense, Mike Stock is the special teams coach I know the most and haven’t played for,' Frost said."

Stock was apparently able to convince GM Ted Thompson that Frost was a safer pick to go forward with than Ryan.

Frost will also take over the holding duties on field goals and extra points from Ryan. He held for kickers all four of his seasons in the NFL and also in college at Northern Iowa.

Given that the Packers also now have a new long snapper, Brett Goode, and Frost as the new holder, and less than a week to get in sync with kicker Mason Crosby, things could be quite an adventure for the kicking game early on. Expect opposing special teams units to test things with additional pressure.

Not a situation one would have hoped for less than a week before the regular season kickoff.

Flynn named #2 QB
Not too surprisingly based upon performances in the preseason, seventh-round pick Matt Flynn was named yesterday by Coach Mike McCarthy as the immediate backup to starting QB Aaron Rodgers. He beat out the more highly regarded Brian Brohm.

According to a report in the Green Bay Press-Gazette, Coach McCarthy said, “We just felt Matt was a little more productive than Brian in the preseason. But it’s a competition that will continue. Matt has to hold the spot, and Brian will have an opportunity to get the spot back. Competition is healthy. They’re both young. I’ve said it all along, they just need to play; they just need reps.” But, as the article points out, most of Brohm's reps now will come with the scout team while the few backup QB snaps with the first team offense will go to Flynn.

It was clear to those watching the preseason games that -- barring the Pack picking up a veteran QB to back up Rodgers -- Flynn should have the job. Particularly in the last game against the Titans, leading an excellent two-minute drive that brought the Pack within a 2-point conversion of tying the game, Flynn reminded at least a few fans of another young gun once upon a time. What was that guy's name? Oh, yeah...Brett Favre.

Congrats, Mr. Flynn. And, Mr. Brohm...keep on keepin' on. Many Packer fans thought you were a steal in the draft. You didn't perform up to even your own expectations so far. But that's so far. There are many miles to go...

Packers flop at San Fran

For as many of the good things that were apparent even in the Packers loss at home last week, there were as many or more bad things that occurred in last night's defeat in San Francisco. It was ugly. The 'Niners whooped the Pack to the tune of 34-6.

The offense looked inept, allowing 6 sacks on the QB, with 4 of those coming against starter Aaron Rodgers. There were 3 turnovers. Receivers dropped passes, including what would have been an easy TD catch by TE Donald Lee following an interception by Charles Woodson deep in the 'Niners red zone. The running game was inept. The Packers didn't even hit 200 yards in total offense.

The defense was sloppy against the run and appeared uninspired. DB Jarrett Bush was -- as last year -- picked on repeatedly, and aided the 'Niners efforts with a critical pass interference play which helped set up a 'Niners TD.

About the only bright spot was a resurrected kicking game by punter Jon Ryan, who averaged about 50 yards per kick on the night. That, and a couple long returns by rookie receiver Jordy Nelson, were about the only highlights. Nelson had a 56-yard kickoff return in the third quarter and a 58-yard return in the fourth.

Coach McCarthy will have a lot of work to do in the next few weeks to pull this team together. It's loaded with talent. But it certainly wasn't on display in the city by the bay.

3rd quarter: Pack 13 - Vikes 9

At the end of the third quarter, the Pack remained ahead of the 'Queens by the score of 13-9.

Items of note: a fake punt, in which punter Jon Ryan shook off nearly 8 players to pick up a first down at about midfield; another huge run up the middle by the Vikes, this time by Chester Taylor; a great punt downed at the 5 by the Pack, and then a 3-and-out by the defense, giving the Pack great field position at the 'Queens 35 to begin the 4th quarter.