NFL Week 15: Packers vs. Broncos Preview & Prediction

Before looking at this Sunday's game in Denver vs. the 11-2 Broncos, a quick look back to last weekend's game vs. Da Bearz in Lambeau Field. Here it is: Packers won ... 28-21! (If you check our prediction for that game, we once again had the spread correct on the final score, just off a few points for both teams with the prediction. Still ...)

The Pack was in control in the first half, but Chicago made adjustments at halftime which basically allowed them to make a game of it in the second half by controlling the time of possession. The Pack's defense was gassed. They couldn't get off the field and when they did, Green Bay's offense either scored too quickly (as defensive coordinator Jeff Hafley noted in his chat with the press during this past week) or couldn't sustain possessions to let their defense get a breather.

It was a nail biter at the end, with the victory sealed by an interception in the end zone on a 4th-and-1 play that new Chicago head coach Ben Johnson would probably like a mulligan on. Whew! The Packers see Da Bearz next Saturday night in Chicago in primetime in what will be an even colder game than they played last weekend. Bundle up if you're going (like my Chicago fan buddies Bill and Jack ... good luck with the cold guys, not the game).

On to the game at hand.

We hope to see the Packers celebrating like this

throughout the game versus the Broncos on Sunday.

(Photo by Jamie Schwaberow/Getty Images)

The Preview

Both of these teams are mentioned as Super Bowl contenders. Some pundits even suggest that this game may be a Super Bowl preview. Let's set that aside for the moment. Can't even get there without winning one game at a time, starting with this one, obviously.

Denver has won 10 straight games, albeit without really dominating opponents. They've won 11 straight home games going back to last season. The Broncos are coming off two straight road game wins. Returning to Mile High Stadium (is it still called that???), the home fans will be jacked. Historically, the Packers have not done well in Denver: 1-7.

Packers QB Jordan Love has already said the GB offense will be operating on a silent count the whole game because of the noise. Factor in the altitude, and this is a tough test for any team. 

The Broncos have a great defense — as does the Packers — and an ascending offense under QB Bo Nix. More on Denver's offense and quarterback in a moment.

The Broncos have the best third-down defense in the NFL and, coincidentally, the Packers have the best third-down offense in the NFL. The Broncos get many teams into a lot of third-and-longs. It will be a match up of heavyweights in those situations. Denver also likes to play the type of pass defense against which QB Jordan Love has had a great deal of success. So if the O-line can protect Love and give him time, he and his receivers could have a big day. That's a big if because Denver's defense has been a sack machine this season, on track to tie or even surpass the 1985 Bears. Yowza.

This will likely be the best defense, and especially defensive front, the Packers will see the rest of the season. The ability of the offensive line to create some running lanes for the Pack's running backs, to set up play-action, will be hugely tested. If they can't do that, it could be a long day for Love. It won't be easy as Denver's defense is No. 1 in the NFL in yards allowed per rushing attempt. Oy.

Back to Denver's offense and QB ... in terms of abilities, Nix reminds some of Chicago QB Caleb Williams: young guy, good arm and dangerous legs. The Packers know how to scheme against that type of quarterback. Execution of the scheme is, as always, the key. And Denver will have the home field advantage of the fans allowing them to call out the signals.

Weather conditions will be balmy in Denver for mid-December. Kickoff temperature is predicted to be in the low 60s. Sweet. Despite that, the Packers will still be wearing their "Winter Warning" all-white uniforms ... which have come to grow on at least some of us. (Yeah ... we like 'em!)

The Packers on Saturday, in a concerning move, added backup RB Emanuel Wilson to the injury report and listed him as questionable. This apparently arose due to an illness. It's concerning, of course, because starting RB Josh Jacobs is also questionable with his ongoing knee issue.  As a result of both of these circumstances, the Packers elevated RB Pierre Strong Jr. from the practice squad; this is Strong's third call-up of the season, the maximum allowed. Elsewhere, most of the receivers are good to go. And the Packers may even have DE Lukas Van Ness available, which would help along the defensive line. Every bit helps. Especially with the need to spell guys given the altitude issues which come along with a visiting team playing in Denver.

If it comes down to a special teams play, Denver has the edge. Returner Marvin Mims is statistically the greatest punt returner in league history in his young career with a 16.1 yard average. He's averaging 26.3 yards per kickoff return. Conversely, the Packers sit at 21st in punt coverage and 13th in kickoff coverage. Yikes! As fans know, penalties have been a real issue all season long for the special teams, with some Packers players now even suggesting that the officials are looking for penalties to call on the Pack while not doing so in a similar way for the opponents. More on that here.

Punter Daniel Whelen will need a big day when called upon to change field position. He's third in the league in average at 51.1 yards and seventh with a 42.7 yard net average. Obviously, kicker Brandon McManus also needs to be spot on with his kickoffs (i.e., make sure they land in the "landing zone" and not the end zone) and make his field goal attempts. With the thinner air, we may see some long attempts. Gotta make 'em, because it may come down to that.

The Prediction

Earlier in the week the Packers were favored by 2-1/2 ... against an 11-2 team ... who is playing at home. At the time of this writing, that spread has tightened and currently sits at 1-1/2 in favor of the Pack. In a game such as this, that doesn't really mean much. Accept perhaps giving the "no respect" card to the Broncos as added incentive. Both teams need to win to stay atop their respective divisions and help solidify playoff seeding in their conferences.

This game could well go down to who has the ball last. Hope not. 

We're calling this game Packers 24 - Broncos 23.

Go Pack Go!!!

NFL Week 14: Packers vs. Bears Preview & Prediction

Before getting into Sunday's game, let's take a victory lap for the Packers 31-24 win over the Lions in Detroit on Thanksgiving. Big win. A season sweep!

There. That's enough.

Now onto the game for the NFC North Division lead and the #1 seed in the NFL Playoff standings.

But first, I need to apologize for all the links that appear in this post. Some funky auto-insert thingie from Google that seems to be set to "on" and we haven't figured out how to turn it off. Sorry. Ignore them.

The Preview

Contender. Pretender. Da Bears. The Packers. Not necessarily in that order. One sitting at 9-3 atop the NFC North. (The horror ... the horror ...) The other, a half game behind at 8-3-1. But which team is really the better one? And which will emerge as the bona fide leader of the NFL and begin to separate a bit from the others as we head down the final stretch of the season? Yeah, a game with big consequences. Not a be-all, end-all. But with four out of the next five  games (including this one) in the division and two of those versus these same Bearz, this begins crunch time for playoff seeding, a first round bye, wild card, all that.

Da Bearz come into this game as a team not to be overlooked. They are atop the standings for a good reason, namely they create turnovers which has helped them cover up a number of glaring deficiencies. As Mina Kimes pointed out recently, Chicago is "leading the NFL with 26 takeaways, including 17 interceptions. But this is a boom-or-bust strategy. The Bears are 8-0 when they force at least two turnovers, but 1-3 when they create one or fewer takeaways." Digging into that stat further, she noted "The Bears' defense — dead last in success rate versus throws of 15 yards or more."

So, two things: the Packers have only had seven turnovers all season, including four fumbles. Packers QB Jordan Love has thrown only three interceptions. And when he throws downfield, he has had a good success rate, especially now that WR Christian Watson is back on the field. Dontayvion Wicks has also come on recently, especially with his big game on Thanksgiving.

Look for Packers WR Jayden Reed to be back

in the lineup against Da Bearz.

(Photo via Milwaukee Journal Sentinel)

The Packers will also likely have wide receivers Jayden Reed and Matthew Golden available for the game against Chicago, as well as LB Quay Walker. Unfortunately, as Packers fans know, DT Devonte Wyatt is lost for the remainder of the season with an injury suffered in the win over the Lions. At the beginning of the season, Kenny Clark and Wyatt were the two guys being counted on to stuff the run. Now, neither is on the field, one via trade and the other via injury. That leaves a large hole in the defensive line which some young and recently-signed players are expected to fill. Per this article by Tom Silverstein in the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, "... rookies Warren Brinson and Nazir Stackhouse will have to play meaningful snaps, along with newcomer Jordon Riley, to fill the void. The 6-foot-5, 338-pound Riley was signed off the Giants’ practice squad for one reason. “Run game, man,” Riley said. “I’m here to stop the run, especially this week with Chicago.” Even though he’ll have had just three days of practice, Riley should be active against the Bears."

With Chicago's running success in their last game on the road versus the Eagles — two running backs each with more than 100 yards rushing! — it could be a test for the Packers run-stopping defense which, let's be honest, has been hit and miss over the course of this season although in the game versus Detroit the Pack held Jahmyr Gibbs (the league’s No. 4 rusher) to 68 yards on 20 carries, and David Montgomery to eight carries for just 32 yards. Detroit is still primarily running the Ben Johnson offense which he brought with him to Chicago in his first year as head coach. So the Packers had a bit of a trial run against that offense on Thanksgiving. So there's that.

Bottom line: the way for the Packers to beat Da Bearz is for the Packers defense to stop the run and force the ball into QB Caleb Williams' hands while also keeping him from scrambling and beating you with his legs. Oh, did we note that Williams pass completion percentage is under 60 percent, which even Johnson noted was an element of their game that they were viewing as winning not because of but "in spite of". Hope you get that. By the way, Williams' favorite receiving target, Rome Odunze, is listed as out for the game. That's huge. Odunze is his security blanket. Will he now look more to his tight ends? Dump offs to the backs? Will be interesting to see the adjustments in the Chicago game plan as well as what Williams does when protection breaks down and he's about to get sacked by Micah Parsons. The game within the game, so to speak.

You can bet that Chicago will do their collective best to keep Jordan Love and the Pack offense on the bench. The best way to counter that approach, along with the Packers defense clamping down on Da Bearz running game, is for the Packers to get off to a fast start and have the "All gas, no brakes" mentality on both sides of the ball for a full 60 minutes.

Making Da Bearz play from behind puts the Pack in the driver's seat given Williams' issues. When Chicago stays close, they can pull off some late-minute heroics (remember the Pack's three-point losses to Cleveland and Carolina?). Da Bearz point differential — +6 — for a team with 9 wins is anemic. Again, all those takeaways have worked in their favor. Defensively, they are ranked towards the bottom of the league in a number of categories. Can't let them stay close. Need to put them away early and not let up.

An overlooked factor in the game today is the punting weapon for the Packers named Daniel Whelan. He's got a powerful leg (a 72-yard official yardage punt vs. the Lions ... yes, indoors, but still ...) and can definitely flip the field to the Packers advantage. We must also mention kicker Brandon McManus who seems to have rectified his accuracy issues since coming back from his quad injury. The one remaining issue is that he has been having trouble putting his kickoffs in the so-called "landing zone" and has been putting them into the opponent's end zone, which then brings the ball out to the 35-yard line. Not great. Can't give Da Bearz that kind of free yardage to start their possessions.

The Prediction

The Packers are currently favored by 6-1/2 points at the time of this writing. That seems like a lot for a game of this kind. But ... maybe not?

The playing conditions need to be factored in. It's December. In Green Bay. With a 3:25 p.m. CT kickoff and temps ranging from about 17 degrees down to about 11 degrees when the game ends, it will make the ball hard and slick. Runners and receivers will need to take extra care of the ball. Kickers and punters will need to be sure-footed, as will linemen, linebackers and defensive backs. A slip can make the difference between a win and a loss. But it's the same for both sides, as they say. Still, to get his team acclimated, head coach Matt LaFleur had his team practice outside all week. Can't hurt. Other than the possible frostbite.

We're calling it Packers 31 - Da Bearz 24. There's the contender and pretender order.

Go Pack Go!!!