Wednesday, September 27, 2023

2023 NFL Week 4: Wait, what happened to Week 3? Plus Lions Preview & Prediction

Hello, Packer fans! Well, well, well. Some of you may have been wondering what happened with our preview and prediction for NFL Week 3: the game last Sunday vs. the Saints. Funny story. I was traveling. Attending a high school class reunion, to be exact. One of those major ones. Was so great to be back among old friends. And I do mean old. Crikey! Time marches on. As does the 2023 NFL season.

But the other interesting part of things is that had I had the occasion to post a preview and prediction for that Saints game, you know what? I would have actually predicted a lackluster performance by the Packers for the first 3 quarters of the game leading to them being shut out, but...then rallying for a dramatic 4th quarter comeback to win 18-17. Really. No doubt about it. And if you believe that ... I've got some choice swamp land for sale for you in Florida. (Come to think of it, I wouldn't do that to you; it's Florida. Ewww...)

Anyway, on to the quick turnaround Thursday night game vs. the Lions at Lambeau.

The Preview

The Lions and Packers both come into this game sitting at 2-1 with the early lead of the NFC North in play. Both teams have some young players already making a mark in the NFL and some injuries to key players. The teams seem pretty well matched at this point, but at the time of this writing Detroit is favored by the pundits by either 1 or 1-1/2 points depending upon who you're reading. The over-under is set at around 45.

As Packer fans no doubt recall, the Lions knocked the Pack out of the playoffs at the end of the 2022 regular season by dealing them a loss at home in the final game in an uninspired effort by Green Bay. Detroit had nothing to play for. The Packers did. And Detroit won. Not great. It was former QB Aaron Rodgers' last game as a Packer. And his last pass was an interception. Just like his predecessor, Brett Favre, as a matter of fact. Football weirdness.

The Lions have a rookie running back in Jahmyr Gibbs and rookie tight end Sam LaPorta that can both do damage if given the opportunity to do so. QB Jared Goff has seemingly found himself, so to speak, in Detroit. RB David Montgomery is also supposed to be back for Detroit. The lateral running game — getting the backs to the edge — has been a challenge for the Pack's defense going back to last season. What the Falcons did to the Packers in Week 2 this season is a likely template for other teams wishing to take advantage of the lack-of-edge containment ... at least until the Pack can prove they can consistently hold that edge.

And let's not forget WR Amon-Ra St. Brown. He seems to step up against the Packers. He can be particularly dangerous in the slot, creating coverage challenges for the Packers. Do they put Jaire Alexander on him no matter where he lines up or keep Alexander on the outside only and allow Keisean Nixon to cover St. Brown when in the slot? Will be interesting to see how defensive coordinator Joe Barry decides to arrange the coverage and adjusts throughout the game.

The Packers pass rush will be key. Goff can get the ball out of his hands quickly, and with the Lions' good offensive line, getting to him will be a challenge. But necessary ... or it may be a long night for the Packers' defense.

Packers QB Jordan Love celebrates the team's 18-17 comeback win
vs. the Saints on Sept. 24 at Lambeau Field.
(Photo via SI.com)


On the Packers' side of the ledger, they are coming off an improbable 4th quarter comeback win against the Saints, which should boost their confidence that they can overcome a lot of their own mistakes, in particular, to do what they need to do to win. QB Jordan Love continues to impress and so do his young receivers. The offensive line is banged up, as it has been since the first game. But Love has no problems using his legs if the situation calls for it. What hasn't been impressive so far has been RB A.J. Dillon. With RB Aaron Jones out the last few games with a hamstring issue, Dillon has been called upon to carry the load. As much as fans love Dillon for his love of Green Bay, Door County and Wisconsin, that doesn't gain yards, smash through holes, or move the pile when needed. With word out as we write this that Jones might once again miss action Thursday night, Dillon needs to step up. It is time, as a famous saying goes.

While second-year WR Christian Watson said on Tuesday that he will play Thursday (for the first time this season), he is still listed right now as "questionable" on the injury report. So he is once again an unknown. But his absence through these first three games has provided opportunities for the other young receivers to get time and make plays, in some cases, big plays. So there's that.

We also have to give kudos to rookie kicker Anders Carlson who is perfect with his field goals and PATs so far this season, including from long distance. May it continue thusly.

The Prediction

With all that being said, and considering the short turn-around time for both teams, the injuries, et al, and the home field advantage for the Packers (which the oddsmakers still aren't fully factoring in), we're calling this game Packers 27 - Lions 24.

Go Pack Go!!!

Saturday, September 16, 2023

2023 NFL Week 2: Packers still own Da Bearz, Plus Falcons Preview & Prediction

Well, well, Packers fans. Glad to say our win prediction for last week's regular season opener in Chicago came true. Not even as close as expected: 38-20. Yay. The Pack still owns Da Bearz. Won't see them again until an end-of-season game in Lambeau Field. We'll certainly know the tale of these two teams after a long season then. As it stands, and as most national media also opined, Chicago has a lot more work to do than do the Packers.

The new owner of the Chicago Bears: Packers starting QB
Jordan Love had a spectacular opening game vs. Chicago.
(Photo via Milwaukee Journal Sentinel)

The Preview

But for this week, against the Falcons, what do things look like? At this stage of the season, do we still really know anything much about either the Packers or Atlanta? Both 1-0. Both young. Heard one pundit say that both teams are actually fairly similar. So where do we go from here?

While it's encouraging to hear that RB Aaron Jones and WRs Romeo Doubs and Christian Watson participated in walk-throughs Friday, Jones and Watson are both listed as questionable on the injury report at the time of this writing. So is LT David Bakhtiari, but that will probably be the case for most of the season, it would seem. While we won't know the final status of these players until 90 minutes before Sunday kickoff, we do know that if the key players on offense are out or limited it will certainly impact the game plan. Conversely, LB Quay Walker got out of concussion protocol and will play, which is certainly a boost to the defense.

And that will be needed as the Pack defense will have to keep speedy rookie RB Bijan Robinson in check, along with tight end Kyle Pitts. There's enough there to present challenges, particularly if it's a tight game.

In a game such as this, a special teams play either way, for either team, could be the difference.

Still, we know that Jordan Love is not one to get rattled easily. He's playing behind a very good O-line. If Aaron Jones can't go, A. J. Dillon will need to step up. He had a bit of a down year last year and didn't show well in the first game. It's a contract year for him, so now would be a good time for him to return to his form of a few years as Quadzilla.

OK, not much of a preview, but for now...good enough.

The Prediction

The Falcons are currently favored by 1.5 points; recall that Da Bearz were favored by 1 last week against the Pack. So, basically the same...not even getting the full home field advantage. The over-under is set at 40.5 points right now; a low scoring event, in other words. To which we say: maybe.

We like the vibe of this young Packers team. They are talented and maybe they just believe it. This is a pick-em type game. And we will.

We're calling it Packers 24 - Falcons 23.

Go Pack Go!!!


Saturday, September 09, 2023

2023 NFL Week 1: Packers vs. Bears Preview & Prediction

Here we go ... 

It's always interesting when Packers-Bears week arrives. Especially when it arrives Week 1 of the season. In Chicago. With a new starter QB ... for the Pack. Without a team's top deep-ball threat ... for the Pack. And the youngest (by age) roster in the NFL ... for the Pack. Toss in a coaching regime change ... for Da Bearz. And a new and proven receiving threat ... for Da Bearz. Interesting, indeed.

Packer fans had hoped to see 2nd-year WR Christian Watson stretch
the field against Chicago. Unfortunately, he's been ruled out for Sunday's game.
(Photo by Megan Briggs, Getty Images, via Milwaukee Journal Sentinel)


The Preview

You basically got the overview in the paragraph above. The fact of it is: no one really knows — especially in the first game of the season — what either of these teams actually can bring to the field. The Packers feel good about who they are and where they are at, albeit without their deep-ball threat, Watson. It's also possible that second-year WR Romeo Doubs might also be held out of the game, also with a hamstring injury. Taking your top two receivers out of the mix in the first game of the year is not a plus. A-duh. When Packers head coach Matt LaFleur was asked about Watson's absence for this game, he indicated that the team had basically had all week to plan around that. Probably have planned for either limited or no action by Doubs, too. The rookie receivers and tight ends will be called upon to step up. There's talent there, just not the experience you'd like to have out there. It is what it is.

We may expect as a result that there is a heavy reliance on the running game with Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon called upon to take some of the pressure off the receiving game, although we could likely expect that Jones, especially, may be used in screen and outlet passes. It's going to be interesting to see the adjustments that will be made before and during the game. New starting QB Jordan Love is a confident young man and if he can limit mis-reads in the early going, there may be opportunities to take advantage of Chicago's defense.

Conversely, the Packers defense — with its eight 1st-round draft picks — needs to finally earn its keep. They were highly touted going into last season and were a let down. They played soft and defensive coordinator Joe Barry seemingly was unable or unwilling to make adjustments. The run defense was porous and defensive backs often were not even in the same zipcode as the guys they were supposed to be defending, whether near the line of scrimmage or downfield. Especially with the youth of this team on offense, and whether or not the defense could actually win a game, the defense must contain Chicago QB Justin Fields who can and will run at any time and change the complexion of the game. Chicago management also gave Fields a bona fide receiving threat in DJ Moore who will probably give the Packers secondary fits.

The Prediction

At the time of this writing, the oddsmakers have basically made the game a toss-up (Bears -1). In other words, they really don't have special insights to offer either. The over-under was 43-1/2 points, which seems about right for this game under these circumstances.

Whether the Packers continue their dominance of Da Bearz ... we'll see.

While we wouldn't be surprised to see Chicago pull out a close one, we think the Pack will come out on top .. in a close one.

We're calling it Packers 21 - Bears 20.

Go Pack Go!!!

With the 2023 Packers season upon us ... Our season prediction. Crikey!

Hello, again, Packers fans ... and all who wish they were...

Well, we've had a looooong hiatus, haven't we? Since April, as a matter of fact. Before OTAs, summer training camp, roster cuts, you name it. Now, it's game time (almost). Too much to cover here and you know it all already anyway. So we'll get on with what we see in store for this season. A very different season than the past 18. Ol' #12 is now in New York City (New York City!). We hope he plays at least 65% of the snaps AND that the J-E-T-S Jets Jets Jets have a dismal record so the Packers get a higher draft pick as part of the trade deal.

But let's just get to the important matters of the moment: the season prediction. We'll do the prediction for Sunday's opener against Da Bearz (in Chicago) in a separate post. We invite you to please check back for that.

2023 first game scrum between the Packers and Da Bearz.
(Photo via Milwaukee Journal Sentinel)


A Quick Season Overview

In the big picture of things, as every fan of the Packers knows, and likely most NFL fans, as well, given all the news and kerfuffle about the youth of the team, the new starting quarterback, etc., etc., expectations for the Pack this season are...basically unknown, but skewing towards...how shall we say...meh.

Most teams would be hard pressed, given the circumstances, to be about .500 for the season. That may well be the case when all is said and done here. But, while young at certain skills positiions, i.e., receiver, the Packers are a talented team. In addition to one of the best running back tandems in the league with Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon, an experienced and good offensive line, first-time starter QB Jordan Love — with 3 years sitting behind ol' #12 — is not the same as a rookie would be. Assuming his young receivers step up, Love will have opportunities to put points on the board. He is as much of an unknown at the start of the season to defensive schemers than those schemes are to him. I give the advantage to Love. Defensively, the Packers have 8 1st-round draft picks on board; it's well-past time they showed up as the 1st-rounders they are.

A big unknown in this whole overview is the kicking game. There's a new long snapper, a new rookie punter and a new rookie kicker. What could go wrong? Lots. Strong legs count for a lot. But so does accuracy and experience. We would anticipate probably losing at least 2 games because of kicking issues which would indeed change our final win-loss tally. Not great. Part of the growing pains that we have to accept will likely be part of things this season.

The Season Prediction

Since the start of this blog in 2005 (18 years ago ... 18!), we have looked at the season preview not game by game (those are done individually at the relevant time) but more quarter by season quarter, so to speak. With a 17th regular season game in place for the third consecutive year, we'll have quarters plus one extra game...and the bye week, too, resulting in 18 weeks to examine...not exactly a straight quarterly set-up but you'll figure it out. Home games are in green. Be aware, of course, that the NFL may flex various game times, especially later in the season, so the days/times shown here are as they are now indicated.

1st Quarter of the Season (+1)

Week 1: @ Da Bearz - Sun 9/10 · 3:25 PM CDT

Week 2: @ Falcons - Sun 9/17 · 12 PM CDT

Week 3: Saints - Sun 9/24 · 12 PM CDT

Week 4: Lions - Thurs 9/28 · 7:15 PM CDT

Week 5: @ Raiders - Mon 10/9 - 7:15 CDT

Note, to begin with, that we have added the extra game into this first "quarter" of the season. Seemed to make sense as the following week is the bye.

Da Bearz are favored by not even the usual home field advantage point spread of 3; instead, they are 1 to 1-1/2 point favorites at the time of this writing. Because the fact is, Chicago is also an unknown under a new coaching regime. Yes, QB Justin Fields is a talented athlete, more so as a running threat than as a passer so far. But Chicago did acquire some receiving help for him. So who knows how that will play out on game day? For the Packers, WR deep threat Christian Watson is likely out because of a late arriving hamstring problem. Not helpful. WR Romeo Doubs was also limited late in the week with a hamstring issue. (What is it with the Packers and hamstring issues seemingly year after year???) So, it would seem the oddsmakers likely have this game figured out as well as anyone...which is...a toss-up.

All in all, without getting into a breakdown of each game at this point, we see the Packers going 2-3 in this stretch leading up to the bye. A lucky bounce here and there (including, perhaps, off a goal post) and the Pack could be 3-2 at the bye.

2nd Quarter of the Season

Week 6: BYE - Sun 10/15

Week 7: @ Broncos - Sun 10/22 · 3:25 PM CDT

Week 8: Vikings - Sun 10/29 · 12:00 PM CDT

Week 9: Rams - Sun 11/5 - 12:00 PM CDT

This stretch of 3 games after the bye should be quite telling as the schedule hits the mid-way mark. Depending upon injuries, of course, and how well the offense and special teams, especially, have gelled, we could have 2 scenarios possible: a team beginning to rise toward a second half push towards playoff eligibility, or a team stuck in neutral. We see the Packers going 2-1 here.

3rd Quarter of the Season

Week 10: @ Steelers - Sun 11/12 - 12 PM CST

Week 11: Chargers - Sun 11/19 · 12 PM CST

Week 12: @ Lions - Thanksgiving Thursday - Thurs 11/23 · 11:30 AM CST

Week 13: Chiefs - Sun 12/3 · Sunday Night Game - 7:20 PM CST

A gauntlet, at least from this far down the road. We would be happy to see the Pack go 2-2 in this stretch. Anything more than that is gravy.

4th Quarter of the Season (+1)

Week 14: @ Giants - Mon 12/11 - 7:15 PM CST

Week 15: Buccaneers - Sun 12/17  - 12:00 PM CST 

Week 16: @ Panthers - Christmas Eve Game - Thurs 12/24 - 12 PM CST 

Week 17: @ Vikings - New Year's Eve Game - Sun 12/31 - 7:20 PM CST

Week 18: Da Bearz  - TBD

With only 2 home games in the last 5 of the regular season, including 2 away games on Christmas Even and New Year's Eve, and with the last 2 against NFC North Division opponents, this is the series of games that, if the Packers have been holding their own as a young team, can seal their fate one way or the other. We see the Packers going 3-2 in this final stretch.

Summary

Looking back at our predictions, we have the Packers going no better (or worse) than 10-7, which would surprise many. As fans know, many projections have the Pack going 6-11 or, at best, 9-8. Lots of unknowns this season.

But it seems as if the love for Love among many sports pundits has been trending upward recently. And, if #10 stays healthy — along with his O-line, running backs and receivers — we see this team putting up points, if not initially, as the season goes on. And if the defense can remain consistent — good consistent, that is — we think this team could surprise some folks. While last season's team underperformed on many levels, we think the opposite may be true this season. Let us pray...

As always, GO PACK GO!!!

Sunday, April 30, 2023

Turning the page ... A-A-Ron gone ... NFL Draft done. Hit it ...

Dear fellow Packers fans, yes, I know. There have been no posts here since the debacle against Detroit that dropped us from the playoffs before we could even get started. That was a tough one, as you know.

As QB Aaron Rodgers and WR Randall Cobb walked off the Lambeau Field turf together, you kind of knew: this was it. Yes, Rodgers was still under contract. A big contract. But keeping him on at this stage, approaching age 40 with seemingly declining performance late in the season in the cold, even at home, was problematic at best on a number of levels. The Packers needed to see what they had in backup QB, Jordan Love. Time to turn the page. Not with a rebuild per se, but definitely a new era in Packers football was going to begin. Somehow.

Thanks for the memories, Aaron Charles Rodgers.
See you in the Pro Football Hall of Fame in a few years.
You know ... when you retire.
Source: Mike De Sisti, Milwaukee Journal Sentinel

Enter the New York Jets. Yes, the same Jets that executed a trade for our last aging Hall of Fame, MVP QB, Brett Favre. It took a while for the Rodgers trade to get done. But it did early in the week leading up to the 2023 NFL Draft. And GM Brian Gutekunst got the better part of the trade, in the opinion of many NFL pundits. For what it's worth, I agree with that assessment.

So, farewell and thanks for all the years of remarkable memories, Aaron. You will be missed. Hope you stay healthy and play at least 65 percent of the offensive plays for your new team this coming season. And ... that the Jets' record is a poor one. If both happen, the Packers will get a high 1st round draft pick next season to complete the trade particulars.

Turning the page officially ...

The three-day 2023 NFL Draft completed its 7th round yesterday. The Pack wound up, through trades and compensatory picks, with 13 draft picks. Will they all stick? Nope. But, it's interesting that at least one source (see below graphic) thought the Packers had the best draft of all 32 teams.

Pro Football Network declared the Packers to have
the best draft class of the 2023 NFL Draft.
Source: Pro Football Network

With needs in many areas, and with a clear objective to give new starting QB Jordan Love offensive weapons to grow with, the emphasis was on that side of the ball, while tending to defense and special teams, as well. GM Gutey picked up a couple tight ends (needed!) and a couple wide receivers (needed!), as well as a couple edge rushers, among others. Wasn't surprising to see the Packers pick up a QB for camp and to compete with Danny Etling, the current backup behind Love. Plus, there will be the need for arms in camp to keep all the receivers and tight ends busy. The Pack also went with a late round running back; decisions will need to be made about both Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon next off-season, so having some backs on hand...yes.

It also became more of a likelihood as the draft approached that the Packers would likely draft a kicker to replace venerable, aging, and all-time franchise scoring leader, Mason Crosby, who is currently a free agent. Now, Gutey made it clear in post-draft interviews that they had not closed the door on bringing Mason back in. But there would have to be a real failure on the part of this young kicker from Auburn. Stat-wise, he doesn't appear to have been especially accurate from long distance. And kicking in the south, despite growing up in Colorado, it remains to be seen how he'd do at Lambeau and other cold-weather venues come December and January. But with kickers and punters, especially, it always seems to be a shorter leash than with other players. As with all the picks, we just have to wait to see.

Also immediately following the draft the Packers and other teams began signing undrafted free agents. You can see those on packers.com and other sites that track these developments. Yes, there are sometimes some diamonds in the rough that actually emerge among this group so it's always interesting to keep an eye on this list, as well.

As draft experts are quick to remind us, evaluating any draft immediately after the fact, is a bit foolish as it typically takes three years before these young players "arrive", so to speak. A big jump usually takes place between the first year and the second. But patience is needed. Think Davante Adams. It took a while. But then ... wow!

As noted earlier, while the Packers assert that they are not in rebuilding mode — and I agree with that view for what that's worth — they are re-tooling. Lots of great veterans. And lots of young guys.

It's going to be an exciting year, Packers fans. Stay tuned.

As always, Go Pack Go!!!


Sunday, January 08, 2023

2022 NFL Week 18: Packers vs. Lions Preview & Prediction

The Packers took care of division opponent Minnesota at Lambeau Field last weekend to keep their slim — but increasing! —playoff hopes alive. And they did so in fine fashion: a kickoff return (a kickoff return!) and a pick-6 interception return. Getting 14 points from special teams and defense always comes in handy, doesn't it?

Anyway, it set things up for tonight's regular season finale at Lambeau vs. the surging Detroit Lions. While both teams are sitting at a traditionally mediocre 8-8, the league decided the implications of this game were so good — and ... Packers! — that it decided to flex the game to the last slot on the weekend schedule. Let's take a look, shall we?

The Packers will be looking, as usual, for QB Aaron Rodgers to help
lead the team to the NFC Playoffs with a win over the Lions tonight
at Lambeau Field.
(Photo by Lon Horwedel, USA Today Sports)

The Preview

Why would the league put this game between two 8-8 teams in primetime? Because — Packers! — it's possibly a win-and-in game for Detroit, if the lowly Rams can somehow beat Seattle earlier today AND the Lions can beat the Pack, as they did in Detroit earlier in the season at Green Bay's low point. And because, regardless of how the Rams vs. Seahawks game turns out, if the Pack can beat the Lions Green Bay will secure the final wild card spot for the playoffs. In short, there's a lot on the line for both teams. Especially for the Packers. And, sorry Lions fans, this primetime coverage is happening precisely for that reason. You're along for the ride.

Given where the Packers were sitting just a bit ago, 4-8 and on life support, to having control in their own hands for making the playoffs ... wow. Nothing short of remarkable.

Since hitting rock bottom at Detroit, the Packers have gotten their offense more in sync with a balanced run-pass game and trending upward in average points-per-game since they began their winning streak. QB Aaron Rodgers has more confidence in his young receivers, rookie WR Christian Watson has provided the ability to stretch the field and open up other aspects of the game, and returner Keisean Nixon has become the league's leading returner and a legitimate threat to take it to the house every time he touches the ball. Defensive coordinator Joe Barry's defense has, astoundingly, rounded into shape, becoming more physical and covering receivers so at least they are in the same zip code together, thereby creating turnovers. Unimaginable a month or so ago.

But let's not forget that Detroit is bringing a lot to tonight's party, too, having won 7 of their last 9 games. The team has taken up head coach Dan Campbell's toughness. QB Jared Goff can cause problems if given time to throw (his last INT was against the Pack, by the way). And Packer fans recall all too well what RB Jamal Williams can do if given room to run. While Detroit boats the number 4 offense in the league, they do not score as well on the road as at home in a controlled environment, i.e., dome. Tonight, that offense will have to perform on the road, in 23-degree weather (at kickoff), on a slick turf to which they are not accustomed. Advantage Packers.

A Packers defense that was seen as a liability has been getting key stops and takeaways that have changed the outcome of games. Advantage, too, in that the Packers defense has been a turnover machine during the current four-game winning streak. If the defense can generate one or, better, two key turnovers this evening that bodes well for the final outcome. And special teams, aside from a minor hiccup or two (blocked punt/FG, etc.), with Nixon's emergence as a returner, has become a real strength of this team ... something we haven't seen arguably in decades.

The Prediction

The Packers are getting hot at the right time. Detroit has been on a roll, as well, no denying that. But with the playoffs so close — and all they've had to overcome to get in this position — it's hard to see the Pack laying an egg tonight. The oddsmakers apparently feel the same way, installing the Pack as 5-point favorites at the time of this posting.

We're calling this one Packers 31 - Lions 20.

Go Pack Go!!!

Sunday, January 01, 2023

2022 NFL Week 17: Packers vs. Vikings Preview & Prediction

The Packers did what they had to do last week in Miami: come away with a win to keep their slim playoff hopes alive. Now sitting at 7-8 after a 3-game winning streak, the Pack roll into the last 2 weeks of the season with games at home against division rivals. First up today, the NFC North Division winners, the Minnesota ViQueens, and concluding the season — depending upon happens at Lambeau Field and elsewhere today — in what could essentially be a playoff game against the Detroit Lions. Yowza.

Let's jump in with a closer look at today's game, shall we?

The Preview

Today, we must hope that the past is not the prelude when it comes to this game. Specifically, the Packers cannot let WR Justin Jefferson do what he did in the first game of the season in Minnesota, i.e., go off.

The Packers saw this little TD dance from ViQueens receiver, Justin Jefferson,
in the first game of the season. This scene cannot be repeated today.
(Photo by Milwaukee Journal Sentinel)

The ViQueens, as especially their fans are wont to remind the world, are the winners of the NFC North this season, currently sitting with a record of 12-3. They have won 11 of those 12 games by one score and a season-long point differential of +5. So not really blowing any team out, just winning close and often and late. Now is that all luck? Or do they make some of their luck? As the saying goes, good teams win close games. So do some lucky ones. We can come to the conclusion that the 'Queens are better than we'd like them to be, but perhaps not quite as good as some Purple People would have you believe. Still, given the option of being 7-8 and fighting for your playoff lives and being 12-3 and winner of the NFC North, I think we know where Packer fans would rather be. 'Nuff said about that.

Today, with good early January weather expected at Lambeau Field for a 3:25 CT start time, the only thing that Minnesota really is playing for today is keeping the Packers out of the playoffs be dealing Green Bay a loss. That is incentive enough for the 'Queens.

Minnesota has quality performers on both sides of the ball. Offensively, QB Kirk Cousins has receiving and running weapons around him, as we know all too well. If the Packers defense is unable to make Cousins uncomfortable in the pocket, and Packers defensive backs let Jefferson and company wander as freely as they did in the first game, this game could become ugly. Thankfully, Green Bay's defense has been performing better of late, most notably in the second half of games. The trick is not to let an opposing offense jump out to a big lead before half or the Packers may have a tough time coming back. That was not the case last week, but the Dolphins are not the 'Queens.

We need to have the Packers defense step up in a way they really haven't all season and play a 4-quarters game. They need to continue to generate turnovers, as well. They likely won't get 4 as was the case last week, but a couple timely takeaways could definitely turn the tide of the game. The Packers young defenders, in particular, along with veterans Kenny Clark and Preston Smith, need to come up big.

In terms of the Packers offense, they should be getting David Bakhtiari back at left tackle today. That would be helpful if he is really ready to go. But it's still unclear at the time of this posting as to whether rookie WR sensation Christian Watson will be ready to go today. He was basically a non-entity, according to reporters, during practice this past week after sustaining an unspecified hip injury in last week's game that saw him unavailable the entire second half. If he can't go, that certainly limits that Pack's offense and also changes the way Minnesota's defense will play.

It's also the case that RB Aaron Jones' ongoing ankle issue is still something that is limiting his availability during not only practice but especially during the game. Do fans really think that, if Jones was healthy, the Packers would only be putting the ball in his hands 6 times as was the case last week? Not a chance. It is the reason why they elevated and started using Patrick Taylor in spot duty and why they late this week elevated RB Tyler Goodson. Now, in the latter case that might also be a signal that Packers exceptional breakout kickoff returner Keisean Nixon might not be ready to go today. Nixon was dealing with a groin injury going into last week's game in Miami and came out of it in no better form. You hate to lose Nixon's explosiveness and take-it-to-the-house potential but you also want to have him available if the season continues.

QB Aaron Rodgers will have to really be in command today, of himself as well as his weapons, if the Pack is to stay in this game and win it down the stretch. Part of that process is converting red zone opportunities, which he and the team have been horrible at over the course of the season. Case in point: last week's game. A couple deep opportunities and instead of coming away with touchdowns they had to settle for field goals. That can't continue and especially not today. Each red zone opportunity needs to result in 7 points not 3.

One other player was elevated late this week from the practice squad and it caused a raised eyebrow or two: kicker Ramiz Ahmed. Does that mean, fans and pundits wondered, if K Mason Crosby's team-record consecutive games streak was coming to an end for some reason? Or, just that the Packers will have Ahmed handle kickoffs? As the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel notes, Ahmed was active "for one other game this season, against the Dallas Cowboys. In that game, he had five kickoffs: two were touchbacks, three were returned and two of those were kicked within the 3-yard line. Ahmed's elevation allows the Packers to aim for more touchbacks against dynamic Vikings returner Kene Nwangwu. Nwangwu is second in the league (behind only Green Bay's Keisean Nixon) in kickoff returns, averaging 26 yards per return, with a 97-yard touchdown." We're betting Ahmed handles the kickoffs today while Crosby takes care of field goals.

Managing player resources, particularly in such strategic situations as today's game, will be key to a Packers victory.

The Prediction

The Packers are anywhere from 3 to 3-1/2 point favorites over Minnesota today, basically the home field advantage. Many pundits don't see the Packers defense as being able to handle the 'Queens offense, much as in the first game, and are predicting a Minnesota win.

Reminder: this isn't the first game of the season. Granted, the season has not gone the way the Packers or their fans have expected. But the team seems to be playing better now than before. So there's that. As usual, there are a lot of "ifs" that will impact this game. But 3 wins in a row, combined with a defensive performance we haven't seen in a while, also would tend to make the Packers players believers in themselves. With their entire season in the balance, and playing at Lambeau Field, we also are believers today.

We're calling it Packers 27 - ViQueens 24.

Go Pack Go!!!

Sunday, December 25, 2022

2022 NFL Week 16: Packers vs. Dolphins Preview & Prediction

First things first: the Green Bay Packers have won two in row to get back on track and stay mathematically alive in the hunt for a playoff wildcard spot. Yes, a long shot.

But...in the Christmas Eve games in which the Pack needed help, each of the teams ahead in the standings that needed to lose did: the Seahawks, the Giants, the Lions, the Commanders. Now the Pack just has to beat the Dolphins on the road today. And then beat the ViQueens and the Lions at Lambeau Field in the last two weeks of the regular season. In fact, if they do that and the Seahawks and Lions wind up splitting their last 2 games (with the latter still losing to the Packers, of course) both could still wind up losing a tiebreaker to the Packers if they finish with a similar 8-9 record.

But let's take a closer at the game versus Miami. Have to win that one first.

Packers RB Aaron Jones and QB Aaron Rodgers will have to have
big days against the Dolphins to keep the team's slim playoff chances alive.
(Photo by Mike De Sisti / Milwaukee Journal Sentinel)

The Preview

The Packers, as fans so well know, have underperformed in terms of expectations all season long. They have yet — as we enter into week 16 of the 2022 NFL season — to play a complete game in all phases. They sit at 6-8 coming into this game. There are a lot of things to watch and consider about this game. The best summary you'll find is by Tom Silverstein in the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. Be sure to check it out here.

News arrived Saturday evening that LT David Bakhtiari is unlikely to play Sunday, but beside that it seems all hands are on deck. The offensive line, without Bakhtiari for most of the season, has been doing a good job, generally, of protecting Rodgers, as well as opening holes for the running game. One other bright spot for the Packers recently has been the emergence of returner Keisean Nixon who is opening up that aspect of the game that has been nothing short of a disaster for several years running. If he can continue his recent streak of productivity that will be a big help in the game overall. It should also be noted that Nixon has apparently been pressing coaches to put him in as receiver. That would raise some interesting possibilities and it would be interesting to see if the Packers were actually able to scheme something in the form of a trick play of some kind to make use of Nixon's talents, although we wouldn't expect that anytime soon.

But, we have also seen more moments of, well, possibilities recently. There's rookie WR Christian Watson's emergence. Add in the return last week of WR Romeo Doubs. QB Aaron Rodgers' thumb seems to finally be back to near normal. The running game of Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon can get things done if head coach Matt LaFleur sticks with it. In fact, as Silverstein notes in the aforementioned article, "When the Packers have an explosive run (10 or more yards) on one of their drives, there’s a pretty good chance they’re going to get in or near the end zone. Of their past 13 drives in which they had at least one rush of 10 or more yards, six resulted in touchdowns and three resulted in field goals." Most of these runs have been between 10 and 17 yards. The Pack will need a few of these runs on Sunday to keep things close. Watch for them.

That's because it's expected that the fast offense of the Dolphins will create problems for the Packers defense, particularly the secondary. The expectation is that Miami will put up points as the Pack defenders struggle to contain their receivers. QB Tua Tagovailoa can cause problems off the run-pass option but is more apt to get the ball out of his hands quickly than to run. It will be a challenge for the Packers defense — which has shown moments of greatness as well as moments of ineptitude — to contain Tua and the offense. If they can do so, and the Pack's offense continues on its upward trend, can eat up the clock through sustained drives, the Pack could win a close one.

The Prediction

While the Packers have won a couple in a row and the Dolphins have lost a few in a row, the pundits have the Dolphins set as 3-1/2 point favorites at the time of this posting. The Pack are 2-5 on the road this season and have been outscored by 41 points total in those games. On the flip side, and perhaps surprisingly, the Pack's defense has allowed fewer than 20 points in four of the team's six wins. So, if the defense shows up ... and the offense is able to run the ball well, be balanced, and keep Miami's offense off the field ... there's a real shot at this game.

Not many are calling for a Packers win. And I guess we've done it a few too many times already this season, but we're going to put on those green 'n' gold-colored glasses once more and call it Packers 30 - Dolphins 27.

Go Pack Go!!!

Monday, December 19, 2022

2022 NFL Week 15: Packers vs. Rams Preview & Prediction

So, in our preseason prediction, we had the Packers sitting at a possible 8-5 going into this last "quarter" of the season. So much for that idea. That record is the inverse of the actual current record of 5-8. Not the season anyone had imagined. Not even close. We don't need to reiterate the many reasons for why the Pack's season and playoff chances are hanging by an icicle.

We do need to just mention, as all Packers fans are aware, that the team is coming off its late-season bye week. Lots of time to rest and recoup. Still, the Packers waited until a little after 11 a.m. CT today to announce that they were releasing veteran WR Sammy Watkins after an experiment that obviously didn't work for either party. Couldn't have done it over the bye. Had to wait to game day ...? OK, so it goes. No seemingly corresponding roster move was announced at the time. The team will, however, be getting rookie WR Romeo Doubs back for the first time in weeks so expect to see him and fellow rookie WR Christian Watson on the field at the same time ... to see what might have been if both had been able to stay healthy earlier in the season. But we're veering into preview territory right now, so we might as well get on with it.

The Green Bay Packers will need a big game from QB Aaron Rodgers,
and all the team, in tonight's game vs. the Rams at Lambeau Field.
(Photo by Wm. Glasheen USA TODAY NETWORK-Wisconsin)

The Preview

First thing to mention, it is going to be classic Frozen Tundra weather tonight, i.e., cold. Maybe even a few bits of snow floating around. This should favor the Packers (a-duh). But as has been the case in recent memory, that hasn't always played out the way expected. So who knows? Yes, the mediocre team from LA really isn't going to want to be there. So every member of the Packers knows — and the coaches will no doubt reiterate it before and during the game — that they need to get up early and big on the Rams and not let up. All gas no brake. Start to finish.

The wind is not supposed to be much of a factor tonight. But how well the cold ball will feel in QB Aaron Rodgers' hand, with a still-recovering bad thumb, remains to be seen. If he can maintain a decent grip, the Pack's receivers should be able to stretch the field, particularly with Watson. And that will open up the running game. Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon could both have big games with the Rams' big run stopper Aaron Donald out of the game. One would think the odds would favor whoever can run the ball better. That should go the Packers way, although we also know that stopping the opposing team's running game has not been among the Pack's defense's strong suit this season. 

New LA QB Baker Mayfield won in his debut last week. Good to see after what he's been through with unfulfilled expectations. But he doesn't need to do that again. At least not in Green Bay. The Rams are banged up and nowhere near what they were as last season's Super Bowl champs. Mayfield is a young, mobile QB, exactly the kind who typically presents problems for the defense, as well. We'll see how defensive coordinator Joey Barry schemes for Mayfield.

Ahh ... there's also the slickness of the ball in the cold to consider. There should be opportunities for takeaways ... let's just hope the turnovers come from the Rams and not the Pack as the conditions should play out in general in the Pack's favor.

Still, the Packers aren't anywhere near where anyone thought they'd be at this point in the season. Imagine how ESPN is feeling after what could/should have been one of the top Monday Night football games of the season playing out this way with the teams' current standings. Oy.

The Prediction

The pundits are favoring the Packers by 7-1/2 points at the time of this writing. Former Packers right tackle and member of the Packers Hall of Fame, Mark Tauscher, said on his radio show this morning (Wilde & Tausch), that the Packers need to win this game "in a romp". Said it shouldn't be close and, as noted earlier, the Pack need to get up on the Rams early to put them away.

With all that being said, we're calling this one Packers 27 - Rams 17. Not sure if that's exactly the romp Tausch had in mind but we'd take it at this point. One game at a time. Let's get this one and then see how things play out on a short week for the Christmas game at Miami.

Go Pack Go.

Sunday, December 04, 2022

2022 NFL Week 13: Packers vs. Bears Preview & Prediction

Before we look at this weekend's game in Chicago vs. Da Bearz, let us first pause for a moment of silence for the repose of the soul of the Green Bay Packer defense. It's demise last weekend vs. the Philadelphia Eagles was a true — and embarrassing — exercise in futility. Depending upon who was providing the statistical analysis, there were somewhere around either 15 or 20 missed tackles, many of which were directed toward QB Jalen Hurts, who ran for miles against this inept Packers defense. Oy. What more can you say?

Let's move on to the game at hand.

The Preview

The Packers are sitting at 4-8 while Da Bearz are 3-9. Both teams have their issues, as evidenced by the records. Da Bearz, especially after trading away some their better players, have a woeful defense. But at this stage of the season, and after last weekend's debacle, can we say anything different about the Packers? Not really.

The difference in this game will be the offenses. Chicago has a banged up QB in Justin Fields, who, while not a great passer even when healthy, can still beat you with his legs. In that last regard, it's potentially a Philly deja vu moment if the Packers can't contain him. And tackle. Especially the tackling thing.

Chicago also has a good RB, so there again are problems to be dealt with. Receivers? Meh. On the other hand, if the Pack's secondary continues its defensive scheme of playing opposing receivers as if in a different zip code, that won't work so well even if the team was the Little Sisters of the Poor. With defensive coordinator Joe Barry at the helm, the Packers defense seems uninspired and confused most of the time. Really don't expect that to change in this game. Or the remainder of the season for that matter. Head coach Matt LaFleur has said he sees no reason to change direction with a new coordinator at this stage. Keep digging that same hole deeper, coach.

That leaves it to the Pack's offense to outscore Da Bearz. Now, despite a very banged up QB named Aaron Rodgers at the helm, that should be possible, even probable. And, we can at least feel a bit better if backup QB Jordan Love comes in as he did in last week's game. The kid's got spunk. And an arm. An arm that was quick and accurate in that brief showing. But Rodgers gives the Pack the best chance as long as he can remain upright. Especially against Da Bearz. In Chicago.

The emergence of Packers rookie WR, Christian Watson, has been one
of the bright spots for the Pack over the past few weeks.
If he continues his progress, the Packers should have a good day in Chicago.
(Photo by Eric Hartline, Eric Hartline-USA TODAY Sports)

Oh, about that last point, about staying upright. We just learned Friday that LT David Bakhtiari had a spur-of-the-moment appendectomy that day. Surprise to him, the coaches, and us. So he's out again for a bit. Figures doesn't it?

But Chicago's defense is not Philly's so Rodgers should still have more time to find his receivers. Of course, he'll be throwing to Rookie of the Month for November, WR Christian Watson. And, it's possible rookie WR Romeo Doubs might also be available, coming off his high ankle sprain injury. Toss in the dependable Allen Lazard and Rodger's best buddy and Bearz destroyer, Randall Cobb, and there should be opportunities to stretch the field and open things up for running backs Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon. Or vice versa: get that running game going early and often and it could lead to a big day for the receiving corps.

This would be a good time for the Packers to play a nearly complete game. We've been waiting a long time to see that out of this team. The entire season, really. Perhaps going into their bye week, they can finally put things together by putting Da Bearz away. And the earlier the better.

The Prediction

At the time of this writing, the Packers are favored by 3-1/2 points. That doesn't mean much in these rivalry games ... despite the fact that Rodgers has indeed owned Da Bearz for his entire career. It also doesn't mean much give that the Packers have been favored in games more often than not this season only to disappoint fans and pundits alike.

Still, despite the ineptitude of the Packers defense we believe their offense has more weapons available and should be able to outscore Da Bearz.

That's why we're calling this one Packers 31 - Da Bearz 27.

Let us pray ...

Go Pack Go!!!

Sunday, November 27, 2022

2022 NFL Week 12: Packers vs. Eagles Preview & Prediction

OK, Packers fans ... on to the next. (Yes, we're bypassing the review of last week's disappointing  — again!  — loss, this one against the Titans. There's only so much self-abuse we can take, right?)

So in this evening's primetime game, the Pack travel to take on the 9-1 Philadelphia Eagles. Oy. What can be said by way of a preview? At this point in the season, sitting at 4-7, the Packers are who they are. Which is inconsistent and underperforming in every phase of the game. Hence, the mediocre record. While QB Aaron Rodgers' broken thumb is part of the story, it is by no means the only reason the Pack's dwindling playoff hopes rest on winning tonight ... and every remaining game following their long-overdue bye week.

We can only dream of seeing the Packers celebrate tonight in their
game vs. the Eagles in Philly.
(Photo by The Associated Press)


The Preview

Do the Packers have a chance in tonight's game vs. the Eagles? Yes. If they play mistake-free football. Is that likely? You tell me. It really has not happened much at all that way this season. If the Packers can play as they did against the Cowboys two weeks back, they could pull an upset. And, truth be told, as it was versus Dallas, the key in Philly will once again have to come via the ground game. Green Bay needs big performances out of Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon. They also need rookie WR Christian Watson to stretch the field once in a while to help open up the ground game. And, of course, continuing his hot stretch of TD catches would be helpful, too.

The Packers defense also has to play one of its top games of the season. Likely? Who knows? And that's the problem with this Packers team, and the defense in particular. Despite all the investment on that side of the ball, to say the defense is underperforming is an understatement. Things that should have been corrected a couple games in, haven't been. And that's a direct reflection on Joe Barry, the current defensive coordinator. He should be sent on his way at season's end. (By the way, University of Wisconsin-Madison interim head coach Jim Leonhard, who had interviewed for the defensive coordinator job with the Pack previously and reportedly turned it down, will now likely be available once again as Luke Fickell from the Cincinnati Bearcats is apparently being named the Badgers new head coach. Packers? Are you on the phone???)

The Eagles offense and defense will present all sort of problems for the Packers. On offense, a QB in Jalen Hurts that is playing at an MVP level — and can beat you as much with his legs as his passing — throwing to a couple of great receivers who will give the Packers secondary fits. On defense, Philly has brought in some aging but A-list players to supplement an already decent defense. It does not set up well for this Packers team right now.

A near-perfect game by the Packers could keep things close and maybe, just maybe, they find a way to eke out a win.

The Prediction

The Eagles are favored by 6-1/2 points at the time of this writing. Seems quite reasonable given the relative state of the two teams right now. Anything can happen, of course. But ...

We're calling it Packers 17 - Eagles 34.

Go Pack Go!!!

Thursday, November 17, 2022

2022 NFL Week 11: Packers vs. Titans Preview & Prediction

Have we exhaled yet from Sunday's overtime thrilling win vs. the Cowboys, Packer fans? Wow. Down 14 and ultimately giving the 'boys their first loss with a lead by that much in the 4th quarter in 196 games. Yay. They finally showed up on both sides of the ball. Special teams? Well, a missed FG early by Mason (even a long one) usually is not a good harbinger of things to come. Then toss in the now-departed-from-the-Packers Amari Rodgers' punt problems and it nearly looked as if things were just too much to overcome. Thought my prediction of a loss would unfortunately come to fruition.

But not.

Thankfully, rookie wide receiver Christian Watson had his coming-out party with 3 touchdown catches, including a few long ones. Finally. Finally. If he can keep the injury bug away, and keep hanging on to the ball, he will continue to create issues for opposing defenses.

While it was a gutsy win, and not perfect, it sure was the best we've seen the Packers perform all season. That level of play will need to continue this evening, on a short turnaround, vs. the Titans.

QB Aaron Rodgers and the Packers will be wearing their all-white 'color flash'
uniforms tonight at Lambeau Field. Let's hope they bring the team continued luck.
(Photo by Jonathon Daniel/Getty Images)


The Preview

We know that the Packers may have found a winning formula on offense: running the ball at least as much or more than passing it. That includes having the starting 5 offensive linemen start and finish the game for the first time this season. That was huge. The trick tonight will be how well David Bakhtiari's and Elgton Jenkins' surgically repaired knees hold up on a short week. This will be a key to success tonight against one of the league's top rushing defenses.

The Packers will need to stick with the run early and not become one-dimensional in the passing game, as was the case for most if not all of the 5-game losing streak. Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon will have to really pound the ball tonight, and to open up passing opportunities. WR Randall Cobb will be coming off IR and will likely see limited play, but may come up with a key catch or 2 to keep drives alive. Watson will stretch the field. Allen Lazard can be the mid-range over-the-middle guy. But in those passing situations that line is going to need to give Rodgers time as it did on Sunday. And if nothing is there, and the field opens up ... "Run, Aaron, Run".

As for how to handle the Titans' offense, that really boils down to handling that beast-of-a-running-back Derrick Henry. He's fast and as big or bigger than some linebackers...a one-of-a-kind threat. The Packers will need to jam up the inside lines and contain on the edges. A tough challenge. If Henry could be limited to under 100 yards that would be a win for the Packers defense. As would minimizing explosive plays, something which hasn't been the Pack's strong suit much of the season. We have been witnessing better play out of Joe Barry's defense over the last several games. So, maybe. But with De'Vondre Campbell being out again tonight that doesn't help. Young players such as linebackers Quay Walker and Isaiah McDuffie will have to fill the void in major ways tonight. If the Packers can hold Henry in check, Titans QB Ryan Tannehill will have to win the game. Not impossible. But the Packers secondary should be able to hold down the Titans' passing game if they continue to play the way they did vs. Dallas.

Tennessee will be missing some key players of their own tonight: K Randy Bullock, OL Bud Dupree, S Amani Hooker, DB Lonnie Johnson, and C Ben Jones. Those missing pieces are not insubstantial. If the Packers can get through the game as relatively unscathed as on Sunday, they have a great shot of emerging on top tonight.

The Prediction

Given the prime time focus of this game tonight — on which Rodgers seems to thrive, as we know — and the 3 out of 4 wins in prior games wearing the all-whites, the cohesiveness we saw play out on Sunday should continue this evening. The weather advantage favors the Pack, as well: it will be cold, with air temps about 24 F and with wind chills likely in the single digits. Perhaps even some flurries. Yes, both teams have to play in it. But this is the time of the year when the Frozen Tundra feel starts to work its magic for the home team.

The Packers are favored by 3-1/2 points at the time of this posting.

We're calling it Packers 24 - Titans 21.

Go Pack Go!!!

Saturday, November 12, 2022

2022 NFL Week 10: Packers vs. Cowboys Preview & Prediction

Let's take a moment to review last week's loss by the Packers to the Lions, shall we? OK, that's enough. Trying to put any positive spin on that debacle in Detroit would be like putting lipstick on a pig. No insult to pigs intended.

Yes, the Pack have now lost 5 games in a row. Including to teams they really should have had no business losing to. But what's a team to do with a $50-million-a-year quarterback and no receivers to throw to? And a defense that has been underperforming since the regular season kickoff? Special teams that are not horrible, but not making much of an impact in the way expected either. Toss in a coaching staff that just seems to not know what to do about much of it at all ... and then injuries ... yeah, every team has them ... but the Packers have just seemed to be snake-bit at so many positions that it has really made a struggling team even more inept.

Packers head coach Matt LaFleur trying to figure out where the
season went off the rails. Sunday's game against the Cowboys
will do little to help the situation.
(Photo by Lon Horwedel, Lon Horwedel-USA TODAY Sports)


The Preview

The Cowboys come into Lambeau Field off their bye week and are sitting at 6-2 with more going for them in all aspects of the game than the Packers have going right now. Plus, the 'boys have a head coach who knows a little bit about the Packers from the inside: former head coach Mike McCarthy. He still loves Green Bay — still has a home there, actually — but also has a bitter taste in his mouth for the way his tenure came to an end. He'd like nothing more than to make his first trip back a winning won for his new team. Given the comparative positions of these two teams right now, that seems quite likely.

Without even going into the Cowboys side of things, this game rests with the Packers. And they are just too out of sync across the board, and have too many injuries, to put up an even fight. As an example of this last point, the Pack have activated a number of players off the practice squad just to fill the active roster for the game including kicker Ramiz Ahmed because veteran Mason Crosby was a limited participant in practice this week with a knee injury. Figures, doesn't it? The hits just keep on coming. And not in a good way.

The Prediction

The Cowboy's are 4-1/2 point favorites at the time of this writing. We hate to say it, but we have been so let down by the ongoing problems with this team — on full display in the embarrassing loss to Detroit last weekend — that we don't see a path to victory against Dallas. Even with all hands on deck and everything rolling, the game would be tight. Not this game.

We're calling it Packers 13 - Cowboys 34.

Go Pack Go!!!

Saturday, November 05, 2022

2022 NFL Week 9: Packers vs. Lions Preview & Prediction

As we pass the midway point of the 2022 season, the Green Bay Packers sit at 3-5 following a 4-game losing streak. Our preseason prediction projected the Pack to be 5-3. So much for that idea. The "Top 5" defense that everyone projected prior to the season has not shown up to play a complete game. The offensive bet that the team could allow their best offensive weapon, Davante Adams, to walk and instead go without a legitimate number 1 receiver, some so-so veterans, and a couple rookies ... yeah, that hasn't worked out so well either. And failing to pick up any help a few days ago at the trade deadline ... as QB Aaron Rodgers said afterwards, it's the guys in the locker room who are going to have to get it done.

That "get it done" part begins Sunday against the Lions in Detroit.

There hasn't been much to smile about for the Packers over the last 4 games.
The two Aarons — Rodgers and Jones — hope to put smiles back in play
with a win vs. the Lions on Sunday.
(Photo via Milwaukee Journal Sentinel)

The Preview

Here's the basics on the Lions: while they are 1-6 and holding down last place in the NFC North, their offense leads the league in explosive plays. They are averaging more than 35 points at home. On the flip side, Detroit is the worst scoring and yards-allowed defense in the league.

What to do with that set of contradictions? The obvious answers are for the Packers defense to play a complete game. They did a great job in the 2nd half of the game against the high-flying Bills last week especially and if they can get any carry-over on that in this game it would be a big help indeed.

While the Packers offense has yet to find itself, last week indicated that feeding Aaron Jones and getting the running game going can be a key to a win ... eventually. The passing game is still hampered by the lack of a number 1 receiver. The default number 1, Allen Lazard, is listed as questionable for the game at the time of this writing, as is rookie receiver Christian Watson who had to leave last week's contest after sustaining a concussion. This has really be a dreadful start to the NFL career for the young man due to being snake-bit, as the saying goes. Between ongoing hamstring issues and now a concussion, the injuries have slowed his ability to be the threat the Packers were hoping for when they drafted him early in the second round this Spring. 

Between the shifting players on the offensive line (David Bakhtiari and Elgton Jenkins practiced but in limited ways this week and are questionable for the game), the lack of a commitment to the running game, and no threats among the receiving corps, Aaron Rodgers has also not been his usual self.

In sum, the Packers have yet to play a complete game in all phases. They have also not done well of late playing at Detroit, despite the Lions' record at the time of the game. And this season, the Lions are a better team than their record would indicate. As we have seen throughout the league this season, the difference between winning and losing a game is often a very slim margin indeed.

Win this game and the Packers can keep hopes of a playoff spot alive. Lose this game and it will be one of those "Woulda-Shoulda-Coulda" type years. And with Rodgers future up in the air and major salary cap hits on the books for next year, we could be in for ... sorry, can't say it. Not yet.

The Prediction

The Packers are 3-1/2 point favorites at the time of this writing. If ever there was a must-win game for this team, it is this one. If they can't get it done against the Lions — who will likely give the Pack everything they have — it's back to the drawing board.

We're calling it Packers 27 - Lions 23.

Go Pack Go!!!

Sunday, October 30, 2022

2022 NFL Week 8: Packers vs. Bills Preview & Prediction

So, first things first: for the first time in the Matt LaFleur coaching era, the Green Bay Packers not only lost back-to-back games but back-to-back-to-back games, dropping 3 in a row beginning with their second half collapse in London vs. the underdog Giants, losing at home to the Jets, and most recently the debacle in Washington against a back-up quarterback. This team is badly out of sync, with no receivers to loosen up an opposing defense and inexplicable offensive coaching decisions taking the ball out of the hands of the best offensive weapon the Packers currently have, i.e., RB Aaron Jones.

The result: the Packers are sitting at 3-4 at the near mid-way point of the season. And for comic relief, the NFL schedule has the Pack playing arguably the best team in the league this evening on the road. What are the odds of the Packers winning this game? Not great. In fact, pundits have the Bills as anywhere from 10-1/2 to 11-1/2 point favorites at the time of this posting. Recall, by the way, that the Packers were favored in all three games in the current losing streak. Apparently the pundit good will has finally run out; no more benefit of the doubt ... now just doubt. In fact, Aaron Rodgers has never before in his career as a starter been a double-digit underdog. Yet, here we are. It's f-ugly out there, Packer fans. No other way to put it.

A Packers receiver, Sammy Watkins in this case, in a familiar position:
being a missed target on a throw by QB Aaron Rodgers.
(Photo by Geoff Burke USA TODAY Sports)


The Preview

As we said way back in our season prediction, "In looking at the other teams (in this stretch of games), the Bills are the team to worry about, as they showed in their season opener by man-handling the Super Bowl champion LA Rams in LA." We also noted, "Some pundits are projecting a possible Packers-Bills Super Bowl match-up." The first part of that season prediction is certainly being manifested ... the second part? Not so much. Oh, the Bills still have a great possibility of being in that game, but the Packers? It would take a monumental turnaround ... a miracle of Biblical proportions ... to even get this team competitive once again the way they are playing.

Having said that, here's what the Packers will face tonight: the league's best offense, defense and special teams and a quarterback with the makings of an MVP season. The Packers, first of all, would have to show us something that they haven't yet this season: a complete game in all phases. They haven't done that in a single aspect of the game yet and we expect them to do it in all phases tonight? Not. Going. To. Happen.

On offense, the Packers will be without WR Allen Lazard and Christian Watson — he of ongoing bad hamstring — is questionable. LT David Bakhtiari...who knows? Rodgers seems to be off, putting it mildly. LaFleur, for an unknown reason, takes the ball out of Aaron Jones' hands once he seemingly gets close to more than a handful of touches. And with a 245-pound RB in A.J. Dillon, on 4th-and-1s, the call is to toss a short pass behind the line of scrimmage rather than give it to Quadzilla to make something happen. 'Tis a puzzlement indeed.

On defense, the Packers show up for the first half, usually, but don't in the second. With the money that has been spent on that side of the ball for years and years, the expectation is that this should be a Top Five defense...which it was in the preseason prognostications. So much for that. And while special teams has arguably improved over the last few seasons' performances, the continuing miscues and turnovers by returner Amari Rodgers, in particular, has cost the team games.

There are no simple fixes here. And looking to get turned around by shuffling off to Buffalo tonight isn't what the doctor ordered.

The Prediction

Based upon what we've seen since the London game, the injuries, the lack of offensive weapons, the lack of output, the lack of motivation, the mental mistakes, the penalties, the miscues, the coaching lapses...you name it, this all adds up to very low expectations for this game by the Packers. We hope we are wrong.

We're calling it Packers 17 - Bills 38.

Go Pack Go