Hello, Packers fans ... and all who wish they were.
We've had a looooong hiatus...since just before the Packers vs. Bucs NFC Championship Game (the horror ... the horror ...). And there's a lot to catch up on. So we'll ignore such things as the Aaron Rodgers drama, the draft, comings and goings, cut-downs, final roster, etc. You have better things to do with your time now anyway.
Let's just get to the important matters of the moment: the season prediction. We'll do the prediction for Sunday's opener against the Saints (in Jacksonville) in a separate post.
The Season Prediction
Since the start of this blog in 2005 (16 years ago ... crikey!), we have looked at the season preview not game by game but more quarter by season quarter, so to speak. Of course, now with a 17th regular season game, we'll come off with quarters plus one extra. You're smart. You'll figure it out. Home games are in green. Be aware, of course, that the NFL may flex various game times, especially later in the season, so the days/times shown here are as they are now indicated.
 |
QB Aaron Rodgers: the "last dance"??? (Photo by Milwaukee Journal Sentinel) |
1st Quarter of the Season
Week 1: @ Saints (in Jacksonsville) - Sun 09/12 · 3:25 PM CDT
Week 2: Lions - Monday Night Game - Mon 09/20 · 7:15 PM CDT
Week 3: @ 49ers - Sunday Night Game - Sun 09/26 · 7:20 PM CDT
Week 4: Steelers - Sun 10/03 · 3:25 PM CDT
We think it's likely the Packers lose one of these first four games. Despite the Pack being one of the odds-on favorites to make the NFC Championship Game, and, Packer nation hopes, the Super Bowl, and having a loaded roster, we really don't know how it's all going to come together, or how soon. With Rodgers back at QB and the weapons on offense, even if they happen to be a bit out sync, they will still put up points. But in the first year of new defensive coordinator Joe Barry's defense, despite good to great personnel in some spots, we'll have to see how that new scheme gels. Of these first four games, the one that worries us most is the 49ers game. Still, it wouldn't surprise us to see the Pack come out of this sequence 4-0. But 3-1 feels like a safer bet.
2nd Quarter of the Season
Week 5: @ Bengals - Sun 10/10 · 12:00 PM CDT
Week 6: @ Bears - Sun 10/17 · 12:00 PM CDT
Week 7: Washington - Sun 10/24 · 12:00 PM CDT
Week 8: @ Cardinals - Thursday Night Game - Thu 10/28 · 7:20 PM CDT
With three away games in this four-game sequence, including two back to back and the last on a short week after the only home game, we again think the Packers will drop one of these. Expect the Pack to come out of these four games with three wins.
3rd Quarter of the Season
Week 9: @ Chiefs - Sun 11/07 · 3:25 PM CST
Week 10: Seahawks - Sun 11/14 · 3:25 PM CST
Week 11: @ Vikings - Sun 11/21 · 12:00 PM CST
Week 12: Rams - Sun 11/28 · 3:25 PM CST
If you get the sense that the away schedule for the Packers seems to dominate the early part of the schedule, yes, yes it does...including two back-to-back series of games. Take a look at Weeks 5 through 9. There's one home game in there. One. Playing back to back against the Cardinals and then the Chiefs...not going to be an easy stretch of games, to say the least. We could see the Packers going 2-2 in this part of the season.
Week 13: BYE
4th Quarter of the Season (+ 1)
Week 14: Bears - Sunday Night Game - Sun 12/12 · 7:20 PM CST
Week 15: @ Ravens - Sun 12/19 · 12:00 PM CST
Week 16: Browns - Christmas Afternoon Game - Sat 12/25 · 3:30 PM CST
Week 17: Vikings - Sunday Night Game - Sun 11/28 · 3:25 PM CST
Week 18: @ Lions - Sun 01/09 · 12:00 PM CST
Depending upon the health of the team going into these last five games, three of which are at home, the Packers could again drop two, to come out 3-2 here.
Summary
Looking back at our predictions, we have the Packers going no worse than 11-6. (Many projections have the Pack going 13-4. We hope they are right and we are wrong.) They should handle their NFC North competitors and win the division. We'll worry about the playoff scenarios much, much later on. Lot of ball game left, as the saying goes.
As always, GO PACK GO!!!
