The Green Bay Packers did what they needed to do last Monday evening: beat the Detroit Lions at Lambeau Field. Final score was 35-17. Our prediction was 34-24...so...close...somewhat.
But it's not about last week's game or prediction, it's all about tonight's battle on the West Coast, as the Pack meets the 49ers. Reminder, too, this is a "short" week for the Packers, plus the travel. For whatever reasons, the Packers haven't had what you'd call a great deal of success on these trips west. Reasons vary. But what about tonight's game?
The Preview
It's about player availability here as much as anything tonight. The Packers will be without LT Elgton Jenkins tonight on offense (not helpful) and Za'Darius Smith again on defense. Those are two key pieces for the Pack. We also just learned that DB Kevin King is out of tonight's game due to illness. This should give rookie Eric Stokes a chance to continue to show that he is the future at that spot; he had a great game against Detroit and, to our point of view, is a clear upgrade over King. So a blessing in disguise here, perhaps.
Conversely, the Niners will be down to about their sixth-string running back. They are hurting, too. Don't need to say any more about that. And expect San Fran to continue shuffling their veteran and rookie quarterbacks, which may present ongoing challenges for the Pack's defenders.
Having said that, we saw in last Monday's game that the Packers offense can, as expected, put up points...even with QB Aaron Rodgers overthrowing a couple long balls to Marquez Valdes-Scantling that would likely have been easy scores. But the Pack's defense continues to be a huge concern, particularly its lack of pass rush. New defensive coordinator Joe Barry's scheme hasn't come together. In apparently an emphasis to stop the run first, it has allowed the opposing quarterback to sit back in the pocket nearly untouched through the first two games. That has to end...soon.
Could special teams make a difference? Rookie running back / returner Kylin HIll has performed well in his returner role. Could he pop one today? Possible. But could the Packers special teams unit also give up a return? Yes. So we can't count on special teams to decide the game.
It will come down to Rodgers doing Rodgers-like things. More than once or twice. Perhaps even with the ball in his hands at the end of the game to determine the outcome. That would be a positive in our view.
The Prediction
The Niners are favored at the time of this writing by 3-1/2 points...a bit more than home field advantage. And given the Pack's historic performances in these contests, a bit surprised the spread isn't more than that.
In our season prediction, we had the Pack going 3-1 in the first four games. While we didn't make game-by-game picks at that time, instead looking at the overall opponents and schedule, this in actuality was the game we most expected the Packers to lose. While we thought the opener against the Saints would be a tough game, we never saw the team not getting off the plane to play.
While we hope we are wrong, we still see the Packers dropping this one, based off recent history as much as anything, plus the problems on defense.
We're calling this game 49ers 31 - Packers 27.
Still ... Go Pack Go!!!
