One of the things we've done since the beginning of this blog -- quite a while now -- is to make a season prediction as to overall record. Lots of places give game-by-game predictions for the season and that's certainly a worthwhile pursuit. We do game-by-game predictions, too, but do them week by week as the season goes along; just too many factors that can affect things.
What we do at the outset though is use a game itself as a model. In short, we break up the season into quarters and give predictions for each quarter of the season. OK, yes, because of the bye week there are really 17 weeks to the season not 16...so how can we do quarters??? Hey, it makes sense to us and since this is our blog, well, that's all that matters. So here go...
First Quarter of Season - Weeks 1-4 (Sept. 10-28)
The Packers start off with the Seahawks at Lambeau Field, followed by a game at Atlanta, then at home versus the Bengals and Da Bearz. That's two tough games against likely NFC Conference contenders right off the bat. With three out of these first four games at home, the Pack's traditionally slow season starts might be mitigated. We see them taking three out of these first four games. Overall record: 3-1.
Second Quarter of Season - Weeks 5-8 (Oct. 6-29)
The Packers begin this part of the season at Dallas, then another away game at Minnesota before returning home to take on the Saints. Week 8 of the season is the Pack's bye week and they will no doubt rejoice in the week off after a very challenging first half to the season. We see the Pack going 2-1 in this stretch. Overall record: 5-2.
Third Quarter of Season - Weeks 9-12 (Nov. 6-26)
The schedule has a bit more symmetry to it in this stretch, with home-away-home-away: the Lions, at Chicago, home against the Ravens and then at Pittsburgh. We'd like to see this stretch go 3-1 but...OK, let's say it's 3-1. Overall record: 8-3.
Fourth Quarter of Season - Weeks 13-17 (Dec. 3-31)
In this final non-quarter-like quarter of the season (five games not four), the Pack has two home games and three away. They start at home against the Buccaneers, then are away at Cleveland and Carolina, home against the ViQueens, and finish the season on New Year's Eve day at Detroit. This has the feel of a 3-2 stretch, although it goes without saying (but we're saying it) that a lot here depends upon the health not only of the Packers but their opponents. Overall record: 11-5.
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| Packers QB Aaron Rodgers is set to take the team back to the Super Bowl. (Photo: Jim Matthews / USA TODAY NETWORK-Wi, Milwaukee Journal Sentinel) |
Aaron Rodgers said this week that the way he looks at the season you win all your home goes and then split on the road. In other words, 12-4. He thought that would put the team right there in the mix. We'd feel more comfortable with that as well.
Given the offensive weapons the Packers have this season, they shouldn't have any problem scoring. The question mark, as it has been for seemingly too many seasons, is the defense. The Pack has concentrated several consecutive drafts on beefing up that side of the ball. And just this week, GM Ted Thompson added some free agents to the mix.
We have to agree with Rodgers that this is a good, very good, Packers team in terms of talent. But all the pieces still have to come together. Given that they got to the NFC Championship game last season with a glued-together defense, even an incrementally better defense could get them back to the Super Bowl.
This might be the thinking of a lot of pundits who have selected the Pack to be one of the favorites to go to the Super Bowl this season. We agree.
Please check back tomorrow (game day) to see our Packers vs. Seahawks game prediction.
Go Pack Go!!!
