Before getting into Sunday's game, let's take a victory lap for the Packers 31-24 win over the Lions in Detroit on Thanksgiving. Big win. A season sweep!
There. That's enough.
Now onto the game for the NFC North Division lead and the #1 seed in the NFL Playoff standings.
But first, I need to apologize for all the links that appear in this post. Some funky auto-insert thingie from Google that seems to be set to "on" and we haven't figured out how to turn it off. Sorry. Ignore them.
The Preview
Contender. Pretender. Da Bears. The Packers. Not necessarily in that order. One sitting at 9-3 atop the NFC North. (The horror ... the horror ...) The other, a half game behind at 8-3-1. But which team is really the better one? And which will emerge as the bona fide leader of the NFL and begin to separate a bit from the others as we head down the final stretch of the season? Yeah, a game with big consequences. Not a be-all, end-all. But with four out of the next five games (including this one) in the division and two of those versus these same Bearz, this begins crunch time for playoff seeding, a first round bye, wild card, all that.
Da Bearz come into this game as a team not to be overlooked. They are atop the standings for a good reason, namely they create turnovers which has helped them cover up a number of glaring deficiencies. As Mina Kimes pointed out recently, Chicago is "leading the NFL with 26 takeaways, including 17 interceptions. But this is a boom-or-bust strategy. The Bears are 8-0 when they force at least two turnovers, but 1-3 when they create one or fewer takeaways." Digging into that stat further, she noted "The Bears' defense — dead last in success rate versus throws of 15 yards or more."
So, two things: the Packers have only had seven turnovers all season, including four fumbles. Packers QB Jordan Love has thrown only three interceptions. And when he throws downfield, he has had a good success rate, especially now that WR Christian Watson is back on the field. Dontayvion Wicks has also come on recently, especially with his big game on Thanksgiving.
Bottom line: the way for the Packers to beat Da Bearz is for the Packers defense to stop the run and force the ball into QB Caleb Williams' hands while also keeping him from scrambling and beating you with his legs. Oh, did we note that Williams pass completion percentage is under 60 percent, which even Johnson noted was an element of their game that they were viewing as winning not because of but "in spite of". Hope you get that. By the way, Williams' favorite receiving target, Rome Odunze, is listed as out for the game. That's huge. Odunze is his security blanket. Will he now look more to his tight ends? Dump offs to the backs? Will be interesting to see the adjustments in the Chicago game plan as well as what Williams does when protection breaks down and he's about to get sacked by Micah Parsons. The game within the game, so to speak.
You can bet that Chicago will do their collective best to keep Jordan Love and the Pack offense on the bench. The best way to counter that approach, along with the Packers defense clamping down on Da Bearz running game, is for the Packers to get off to a fast start and have the "All gas, no brakes" mentality on both sides of the ball for a full 60 minutes.
Making Da Bearz play from behind puts the Pack in the driver's seat given Williams' issues. When Chicago stays close, they can pull off some late-minute heroics (remember the Pack's three-point losses to Cleveland and Carolina?). Da Bearz point differential — +6 — for a team with 9 wins is anemic. Again, all those takeaways have worked in their favor. Defensively, they are ranked towards the bottom of the league in a number of categories. Can't let them stay close. Need to put them away early and not let up.
An overlooked factor in the game today is the punting weapon for the Packers named Daniel Whelan. He's got a powerful leg (a 72-yard official yardage punt vs. the Lions ... yes, indoors, but still ...) and can definitely flip the field to the Packers advantage. We must also mention kicker Brandon McManus who seems to have rectified his accuracy issues since coming back from his quad injury. The one remaining issue is that he has been having trouble putting his kickoffs in the so-called "landing zone" and has been putting them into the opponent's end zone, which then brings the ball out to the 35-yard line. Not great. Can't give Da Bearz that kind of free yardage to start their possessions.
The Prediction
The Packers are currently favored by 6-1/2 points at the time of this writing. That seems like a lot for a game of this kind. But ... maybe not?
The playing conditions need to be factored in. It's December. In Green Bay. With a 3:25 p.m. CT kickoff and temps ranging from about 17 degrees down to about 11 degrees when the game ends, it will make the ball hard and slick. Runners and receivers will need to take extra care of the ball. Kickers and punters will need to be sure-footed, as will linemen, linebackers and defensive backs. A slip can make the difference between a win and a loss. But it's the same for both sides, as they say. Still, to get his team acclimated, head coach Matt LaFleur had his team practice outside all week. Can't hurt. Other than the possible frostbite.
We're calling it Packers 31 - Da Bearz 24. There's the contender and pretender order.
Go Pack Go!!!
