Happy Thanksgiving, Packer fans! Yes, we have much to be thankful for this day. And always. For starters, we have our breath. That's huge, right? After that, family, friends, being fans (and perhaps being owner-shareholders) of the most legendary franchise in the NFL: our Green Bay Packers. Amen.
Looking back to just a few days ago, we can also be thankful that the Pack finally did to the 49ers what the Niners have typically done to the Packers: beat them. And they did so in style, winning 38-10, with the largest margin of victory — 28 points! — in the long history of the match-up. Yay!
The Pack rode RB Josh Jacobs and his three TDs to the victory ... which may have even been put away before halftime had WR Christian Watson not dropped a 50+-yard surefire TD pass from QB Jordan Love. Watson! Frustrating. He can make some extraordinary catches, flashing inherent talent as he did the week prior against Da Bearz. And then he has these inexcusable drops. Still, among the remarkable receivers on this Packers squad, he remains really the only one that can stretch the field as quickly as he does. So have to keep going to him. No surprise there. Anyway ...
The Preview
As a result of the win this past Sunday, the Packers are now 8-3 going into this evening's Turkey Day game vs. the 5-6 Miami Dolphins at a reasonably cold (by Wisconsin standards ... or extremely cold by Miami standards) Lambeau Field. Which, in most divisions in the NFL would put the Pack in first place. But this season, the Pack still finds themselves behind the Lions and the ViQueens in the NFC North. Just have to keep on winning and the rest will take care of itself, i.e., playoff seeding. More on that as the season moves along to its final six games.
As for tonight's game, the temperature will be about 26 degrees at kickoff. Miami is 0-12, including playoffs, when the temperature is below 40 degrees. That should obviously play in the Packers favor. But as a few pundits have pointed out, that would typically be the case ... except for the fact that the Dolphins have a hot young QB by the name of Tua Tagovailoa. After yet again returning following what seems like his 100th concussion, Miami has gone 3-2, winning their last three games. On Sunday vs. the Patriots, Tua was 29 for 40 for 317 yards including four touchdowns; he was named AFC Offensive Player of the Week for his performance.
Tua has averaged between 28 and 40 pass attempts in each of his games back. Yeah, he wants to throw the ball. A lot. Will the cold affect his passing? Have to wait to see. Believe we saw somewhere that his hand size is actually pretty close to that of Aaron Rodgers which, if the case, means he should not have a problem hanging on to the ball. Although, as most cold-weather folks know, below-freezing cold can make the ol' pigskin slick. And if one is not used to that there can be issues both throwing and hanging on to the ball.
Of course, another reason he likes to throw a lot is that he has great targets to throw to: Odell Beckham Jr., Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle and Malik Washington. Miami is averaging 29 points per game with Tua at QB; the Packers are averaging 26.2 points this season.
Both teams will be missing a few key pieces. For the Dolphins, they will be without CB Kendall Fuller and LB Anthony Walker Jr. The Packers, unfortunately, will be without CB Jaire Alexander (once again), LB Edgerrin Cooper and WR Romeo Doubs. The Packers seem to know how to cover these gaps.
This will be an interesting game to see how the Packers attack the Miami defense and how the Green Bay defense defends against a dangerous passing QB. Can the Pack generate a consistent pass rush? (Tua doesn't run often, so getting to him in the pocket will be key to a win.) Can the defense cover some very good receivers on what projects to be a slick field at times? Can they get some takeaways on this cold evening? With a so-so rushing attack, can Miami do enough to keep the Packers defense guessing? Many questions, with the answers to play out soon.
The Prediction
This is a game that should go the Packers way: at home, on a cold evening, with most of the team's weapons on hand and both the offense and defense seemingly starting to click and play complementary football. But as we have seen all season long — and not just watching the Packers — there really are very few gimmee type games in the NFL this season.
The Packers are favored by 3-1/2 points at the time of this writing, with the over-under set at 47-1/2. Most pundits are seen the game as a close one and going with the "under".
We see the Packers winning this one. They dominated a beat-up San Francisco team four days ago. While not exactly facing the same swarm of injuries as the Niners, we are hoping the conditions tonight play out in the Packers favor and against Miami as has historically been the case.
We're calling it Packers 31 - Dolphins 20.
GO PACK GO!!!
Gobble gobble ....
