Sunday, January 03, 2021

2020 NFL Week 17: Packers vs. Bears Preview and Prediction

Happy New Year, Packers fans! Welcome to 2021. May this year be better than the last. Hard to imagine it being worse. Let us pray...

The last game in 2020 saw the Pack trounce the Titans at a snowy Lambeau Field. Tennessee was supposedly the team that would be the toughest challenge for the the Packers until they (hopefully) reach the Super Bowl. RB Derrick Henry would reportedly run roughshod over a Packers defense that has been less than stellar for a long time against the run. Despite the weather, despite Henry (who was held to under 100 yards rushing), despite it all, the Pack triumphed 40-14. It was not the game we, or many expected. And for that we were grateful.

The game was a coming out party of sorts for rookie RB A.J. Dillon who rushed for 124 yards and his first 2 TDs of the season. QB and soon-to-be three-time MVP Aaron Rodgers threw for 4 TDs and 1 INT, while all-world receiver Davante Adams had 11 catches for 142 yards and 3 TDs. It was also a coming out party for a Packers defense that we hadn't seen in a while. As noted, they shut down arguably the top running back in the league and that left the offense in the hands of QB Ryan Tannehill, who had been having a pretty good season. But against the Pack he was picked off twice, only his sixth and seventh interceptions of the season, and wound up throwing for just 121 yards with a completion rate around 45 percent.

Game, set, match ... Packers.

Now, on to Chicago and our neighbors to the south, Da Bearz.

QB Aaron Rodgers will have to deal the rest of this season and likely
to mid-season next year without starting LT David Bakhtiari. Bakhtiari
suffered a season-ending freak ACL injury during practice on Thursday.
(Photo via Milwaukee Journal Sentinel)

The Preview

The first item of note is that starting LT David Bakhtiari is lost for the rest of this season and into the next as a result of a freak ACL injury that occurred during practice on Thursday. Not great. At all. But the Packers O-line has been dealing with injuries throughout the season and is used to shuffling players around. It's likely that Billy Turner will play LT, Rick Wagner will play RT and Lucas Patrick will play RG. Thankfully, starting center Corey Linsley returned last week to return stability to the middle of the line. Elgton Jenkins also give the Pack a lot of flexibility in case anyone else goes down on the line. Let's hope not.

Secondly, with RB Jamaal Williams returning today, head coach Matt LaFleur has indicated that he'd like to find ways to use all 3 running backs — Aaron Jones, A.J. Dillon and Williams — on the field at the same time. He even said he'd be challenged not to overdo that formation. So let's see if that happens today. We'd think it would give Chicago's defense fits, as all 3 cannot only run the ball aggressively but can catch the ball, as well. Then throw in the Packers corps of receivers. Can you imagine trying to defend that? Oh, and did we mention that Da Bearz will be without 2 of their starting defensive backs? (In best Seinfeld voice) That's a shame.

Chicago has a good running back of their own in David Montgomery who has already surpassed 1,000 yards on the season. In order for the Packers to enhance their chances for victory today the defense will need to shut down Montgomery the way they did Henry last week. That means  Za’Darius Smith, Preston Smith and Rashan Gary will need to once again protect the edge and funnel things inside as much as possible. That was a key to success last week and will be so again today. Oh, and lest we forget: the Packers signed NT Damon "Snacks" Harrison this week and he was able to practice. It will be interesting to see how much the Packers work him into defensive schemes today and how he plays. He should be a valuable pick up for the playoff run.

Back to Da Bearz. QB Mitchell Trubisky has been having a better end to the season than start. After being benched for Nick Foles, he's responded well to the challenge. But it's also been against so-so defenses, to say the least. The Packers defense has been getting better as the season has progressed. If Chicago's chances rest in his hands...good luck with that.

The Prediction

The Packers are 4-1/2 to 5 point favorites depending upon who's making that call. I consulted my good friend, Billy Da Bearz Fan, to get his take on the game. He told me that I'm not supposed to say that he really thinks the Pack will go up by 3 or 4 touchdowns early and then start resting players. Instead, he says since its in writing, I should say that he's calling it 28-27 Bearz.

So there's one point of view. Or two, if you're counting.

Here's a third. Despite the hard hit incurred with the loss of Bakhtiari, we think the Packers are on a roll right now and things are gelling at the right time. We expect Da Bearz to put up a spirited game — after all, they are playing for a potential playoff spot. But the Pack is playing for the #1 overall seed, a bye, and home field advantage throughout the playoffs. If they play for 4 quarters, they'll win with room to spare. If they let Chicago hang around, well, if it comes down to Rodgers or Trubisky making a play to win the game, c'mon.

We're calling it Packers 34 - Bearz 24.

Go Pack Go!!!