Sunday, September 15, 2024

2024 NFL Week 2: Packers vs Colts Preview & Prediction

How are we feeling today, Packers fans? If you're like yours truly, probably still disappointed in the performance vs. the Eagles in Brazil. But even more so in the injury — with 6 seconds left in the game — to starting QB Jordan Love. He's out for today's game and perhaps at least 1 or 2 more games. A grade 1 or 2 MCL sprain, we've been told. Could have been much worse, granted. But still, it does give an immediate hit to the Packers playoff chances let alone the team's Super Bowl chance if they can't somehow find a way to win 1 or 2 of these first 4 games while awaiting Love's return.

But you already know that.

So what happens today?

This was NOT how we wanted to see Game 1 of the 2024 NFL Season end: QB Jordan Love on the ground in pain from a knee injury with 6 seconds remaining on the game clock. The Packers will have to find other ways to win today vs. the Colts and for perhaps the next few weeks.

(Photo by Wagner Meier, Getty Images)

The Preview

Most previews of today's game are focused, rightly so, on what's missing: Jordan Love. That's a huge piece missing and completely changes Matt LaFleur's offense. New starting QB Malik Willis has very little practical NFL experience. Supposedly, he is very athletic, can do some damage with his legs probably more than his arm although the latter attribute is noted as being "lively" in scouting reports. OK. Fine. But the knock on him coming out of college (Auburn and Liberty universities) and into his brief time with the Titans is that he has difficulty "processing" the game. That's not great. Still, Packers GM Brian Gutekunst has stated that he saw progress in Willis' abilities over the last year or two. How that translates to running the Packers offense after only about 18 days in the system? We will find out today.

The game plan will obviously be slimmed down to what Willis was able to pick up during this very minimal time. LaFleur needs to give him plays that will have 1 or 2 progressions tops before either getting rid of the ball or running. We can expect the Colts defense to load up the box with 8 defenders knowing the Pack will be run-heavy in all likelihood. There may be throws to be made and Willis will have to make them, as well as use his legs when that opportunity presents itself. How well Willis has been able to establish any connections with the receivers through practice...who knows? Running backs Josh Jones and Emanuel Wilson will need to help out, and the O-line will have to play at a an extremely high level today, and without the penalties we saw in the opener (yeah, we're looking at you, Rasheed Walker).

Of course, the Packers defense will have to keep things close. They generated turnovers in the first game but the Packers were not able to take advantage of them beyond field goals. That was a big reason the team came up short against Philly. Special teams — particularly the new kicker — will need to make ALL his FG and PAT attempts; can't leave any points on the field as was the case last week...points that may have made the difference.

For a great overview of things to watch in today's game, check out this great article by Tom Silverstein in the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel.

The Predication

It's the Pack's home opener, so there will be a lot of energy in the stadium. There will also need to be a lot of energy on the part of the Packers once they take the field. It's gotta be all gas, no brake.

The Colts are favored by 3 points at the time of this writing.

Our heads tell us this game will go the Colts way for obvious reasons. But our last-second feeling is that LeFleur will figure out a way to have the team execute just enough to steal a game they probably shouldn't win.

We're calling it Packers 20 - Colts 17.

Go Pack Go!!!

Sunday, September 08, 2024

Packers vs Eagles Game Review & Season Prediction Adjustment

Dear Packer fans ...

We knew that the Week 1 Friday night game of the 2024 NFL season would likely be a toss-up, and it was really. The Eagles were favored by 3 and won by 5. We had predicted the Packers to win by a score of 27-24. Close, but not a win and not close enough.

The field was problematic for both teams, with a lot of slipping going on. The game itself was a sloppy performance overall by both teams, as well. But the Eagles did a better job of overcoming their problems on that front, with some assistance by the Packers. The Pack had way too many penalties (cue OL Rasheed Walker for more than his share!), too many missed tackles, an inability to score TDs in the redzone (after 2 early takeaways in these cases BTW, that could have likely put Philly away early), and a deja vu feel for the defense despite the change in defensive coordinator and scheme change from 3-4 to 4-3. Not being able to get a stop when needed ... where we have seen that before???

USATSI_24172889 (1)

Packers QB Jordan Love being assisted off the playing field in Brazil at the end of the game vs. the Eagles.

(Photo by Kirby Lee-Imagn Images)

But the big news coming out of the night, as the entire sports world now knows, was the knee injury QB Jordan Love sustained with about 6 seconds left in the game. Trying to keep a play alive as his protection broke down, Love was sandwiched between 2 Philly defenders and twisted both his left ankle and knee; he went down immediately in pain and after moments on the ground had to be assisted off the field.

Initially, the thought from the replay video was that it was his ankle. Turns out, not. Instead, we have now learned that Love likely sustained a MCL sprain of the grade 2 variety. Translation — still subject to revision after further testing — is that Love will likely be out at least 3 to 6 weeks according to current reports. On the one hand, we can be thankful that it wasn't an ACL tear which would have been season-ending. On the other hand, the Packers will now have to figure out a way to get through anywhere from the next 3 to 6 games without their hundreds-of-millions-of-dollars quarterback.

Oy.

Options? Not great.

What are the options? We refer you to an excellent overview in the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel on this topic. Right now, in summary, the Packers can either go with the recently-acquired Malik Willis, bring up 2nd-year backup Sean Clifford from the practice squad, or sign another QB and hope to get that person up to speed in time for the next game vs. the Colts on Sept. 15 and then ongoing until Love's return. Actually, Willis and Clifford would also need to gear up for a bit of an extended run, too.

Who are the opponents over the next 3 to 6 weeks? The next 3 weeks have the Colts coming to Lambeau Field, then at Tennessee, then back home against the ViQueens. Our initial season prediction — looking at these games plus the opener as the 1st quarter of the season — had the Pack going 3-1, although noting that they could also lose 2 of the first 4 games ... and that was with Love as QB. Without him? Hmmm. The Packers have already lost 1. Likely will lose at least 1 of the next 3 without the star QB at the helm. Perhaps two. Or all three. So from going 3-1 in this first stretch of games to going 0-4 becomes as likely a possibility as not. Not great.

Looking ahead to games 5 and 6, the Pack plays the Rams in LA and then the Cardinals back in Green Bay. Assuming Love can be back for 1 or both of these games, the Rams still remains a tough game. If Love is not yet back behind center? Advantage Rams, and the Cardinals game would probably be considered a toss-up.

Of course, all this also assumes the Packers defense remains as lackluster throughout these games as it played in the opener. That's a bit of an assumption given the caliber of the players on that unit and the reputation of Jeff Hadley as defensive coordinator. The expectation is that things will get straightened out and that could help cover up any offensive issues for a time...perhaps the D and special teams could even win a game or 2. That would be nice.

The bottom line is that things are very much up in the air. Not how the team or fans thought we would start this season out. But at least there is the likelihood that Love returns and can hopefully regain at some point the characteristics we saw on display in the second half of last season. Because, let's also be honest, he was not locked in that way in this opening game vs. Philly. He wasn't horrible, but wasn't as sharp as we would have hoped either.

Season Prediction Adjustment?

Our initial season prediction saw the Pack finishing at 11-6. That was with Love at QB for all 17 games. Now? Oy. I think at least 1 game has to switch from the win to the loss column during the next 3 weeks. And if Love is out 6 weeks? I think another win turns to a loss. So we could now, barring some miracle or series of miracles, see the Packers finishing at 9-8. That's definitely on the playoff bubble...not a place anyone expected to be given the team's consensus Super Bowl contender preseason status.

The road has become much more uncertain, Packer fans. Let's offer up some "thoughts and prayers" for our favorite QB, Jordan Love, for a fast and effective return. For not only his well-being, but for the team's season prognosis, as well.

Go Pack Go!!!

P.S. 

Can we also agree that the Packers should NEVER agree to play another international NFL game? Cases in point: the Packers played, and lost in London, and then-QB Aaron Rodgers broke his thumb; in the team's second international appearance, the Packers played, and lost in Brazil, and starting QB Jordan Love was injured at the end of the game and will be lost 3 to 6 weeks with a sprained MCL.

Let the NFL send its bottom-of-barrel teams out of country. Too much at stake for the top-level teams. Too much. If that sounds elitist, sorry. But there are differences and matters of degree across the franchises. We understand the international draw of the Packers as one of the top teams in the NFL, but the risk to the Packers — despite the dollar rewards to the NFL — is not worth it. (So ends the editorial portion of this post.)

Friday, September 06, 2024

2024 NFL Season Week 1: Packers vs Eagles

We hope you've had a chance to check out our Season Prediction, Packer fans, for an overview of how we are looking at the season and how we believe it will play out given the schedule.

But it all starts, of course, with Game #1: the Pack vs. the Eagles down in good ol' Brazil. Crikey! There's been a lot of buildup going into this game, of course, with 2 of the top contenders in the NFC going head to head in the first-ever NFL game held in South America. While it's not a mandatory win for either, whichever team does come out on top may well have an important tie-breaker at the end of the season if playoff seeding is in play.

Kenny Clark, defensive tackle

The Packers need to have a big game tonight from Kenny Clark and the entire defensive unit to shut down Eagles QB Jalen Hurts et al.

(Photo by Tork Mason/USA TODAY NETWORK-Wisconsin)

Two top offenses. Which is the better defense?

There probably doesn't need to be a lot of discussion of offenses at this point. Both teams think they know what they have with two top quarterbacks. There are also two top running backs: the Packers, as we know, let Aaron Jones go (to the ViQueens...ewww) and picked up a younger and accomplished back in Josh Jones. Didn't see him really in the preseason outside of the first carry in the first preseason game and a pass reception in the flat ... so hard to know how he and the O-line have synced up. We'll find out. The question is who might his back up be tonight and going forward as injuries in the backfield make that a bit of a toss-up at the moment. And, as we also know, RB A.J. Dillon was placed on the season-ending (and perhaps Packers-career-ending) injured reserved list after a lackluster preseason. So...a question there.

No question for the Packers regarding their receivers, though. If the line can give Love time (which we expect against an Eagles defense that has some questions surrounding it), we see Love having a big night in the air. Especially if Jacobs can do enough to keep the Eagles D a bit unsure of what the Packers will do.

Conversely, the Eagles offense is also high powered with a QB of the type that has always seemed to give the Packers fits. Someone who can run and throw: Jalen Hurts. The Packers defensive front has to keep him in check. But even if they do, let's remember that the Eagles acquired RB Saquon Barkley in the offseason. Oy. The Pack's new defensive coordinator, Jeff Hafley, has a load of talent to work with on that side of the ball and will need to scheme the line and coverages in ways that minimize the chances for getting picked apart in the running and passing games. As it's the first game of the season AND the very first under this new 4-3 defensive scheme the Pack will be running, one might expect a lot of adjustments throughout the game.

If it comes down to the kicking game? Oh boy. We Packer fans will be getting our very first look at our new kicker, Brayden Narveson, claimed after the Titans waived him following the preseason. Strong leg, we hear. We've heard that before. We need an accurate leg. Supposedly, Narveson has performed well in his young — and non-NFL — career. If you're one who believes in the power of prayer...start now.

The Prediction

The Eagles are currently favored by 3 points over the Pack. We've seen the over-under at 48-1/2 points. We see it as basically a toss-up game. One team could blow the other team out. Or not. We think the point differential is about right. But we see the Packers picking up where they left off at the end of the last regular season and the Eagles doing the same (a 1-6 finish after a strong start). Bottom line: Packers win.

We're call this game Packers 27- Eagles 24.

Go Pack Go!!!

With the 2024 Packers season upon us ... Here's our season prediction (our 20th!!!)

Hello again, Packers fans ... and all who wish they were.

We've had a looooong hiatus here at PackerFansUnited...since just before the Divisional game vs. San Fran, to be exact. Been engaged with much movement in life during this time, including literally moving on to a new home a couple of states away. So I have plenty of excuses. There's been a lot of water under the bridge since then: player and coaches comings and goings, injury updates, cut-downs, final roster, etc. Too much to cover here and you know it all already anyway.

So let's just get to the important matters of the moment: the season prediction, just as we've done every year. We'll do the prediction for tonight's opener against the Eagles (in Brazil!!!) in a separate post. We invite you to please check back for that before gametime later today.

The Season Prediction

Since the start of this blog in 2005 (20 years ago now ... 20!), we have looked at the season preview not game by game (those are done individually at the relevant time) but more along the lines of a quarter by season quarter point of view and the overall feel of it, so to speak. With a 17th regular season game in place for the last few years, we'll have 4 quarters plus one extra game...and the bye week, too...resulting in 18 weeks to examine. You'll figure it out. Home games are in green. Be aware, of course, that the NFL may flex various game times, especially later in the season, so the days/times shown here are as they are now indicated on the official schedule. The final home game vs. Chicago is, however, already listed as TBD game in terms of date and time.


Jordan Love, quarterback

QB Jordan Love will lead the Packers 

in the first game of the 2024 season.

(Photo by Scott Galvin-USA TODAY Sports)




1st Quarter of the Season

Week 1: @ Eagles - Fri 9/6 · 7:15 PM CDT

Week 2: Colts - Sun 9/15 · 12:00 PM CDT

Week 3: @ Titans - Sun 9/22 · 12:00 PM CDT

Week 4: Vikings - Sun 9/29 · 12:00 PM CDT

We think it's likely the Packers lose one, and perhaps two, of these first four games. The season opener on Sept. 6 in Brazil...more on that one in a separate post. But it sure adds a big unknown to literally kick off the season. Despite the Pack being once again one of the odds-on favorites to make the NFC Championship Game, and, Packer nation hopes, the Super Bowl, and having a talented roster on both sides of the ball, we really don't know how it's all going to come together, especially with a new defensive coordinator and a new featured running back in Josh Jacobs. The O-line and wide receiving corps are solid. When there isn't a clear #1 receiver, that tells you that there are a lot of weapons that can shred a defense; give QB Jordan Love the time and they can shred the defense. We see the Packers coming out of these four games with a strong start and a 3-1 record.

2nd Quarter of the Season  (+1)

Week 5: @ Rams - Fri 10/6 · 3:25 PM CDT

Week 6: Cardinals - Sun 10/13 · 12:00 PM CDT

Week 7: Texans - Sun 10/20 · 12:00 PM CDT

Week 8: @ Jaguars - Sun 10/27 · 12:00 PM CDT

Week 9: Lions - Sun 11/3 · 12:00 PM CST

Week 10: BYE

Coming off a home game against the ViQueens, hitting the road to take on the Rams in LA is a tough one. Also, in looking at the other teams in this quarter, the Texans are the team to worry about. Still, we think the Packers should come out of these four games with a 3-2 record.

3rd Quarter of the Season

Week 11: @ Da Bears - Sun 11/17 · 12:00 PM CST

Week 12: 49ers - Sun 11/24 · 3:25 PM CST

Week 13: Dolphins - Thurs (Thanksgiving) 11/28 · 7:20 PM CST

Week 14: @ Lions - Thurs 12/5 · 7:15 PM CST

This begins a tough little stretch, Packer fans, despite the Bye Week coming at a pretty good time in the schedule just ahead of this gauntlet of games. It will be the first chance to see the Caleb Williams-led Bearz. He'll either be living up to the hype at this point of the season. Or not. There will certainly be enough game film of him by that meeting to allow the Pack to scheme their defense accordingly. Then the kryptonite comes to Lambeau: the Niners. If the Packers want to get to the next level this season, they have to beat San Fran on home turf. Dolphins and Lions back to back...oy. We can see the Pack going 2-2 in this stretch.

4th Quarter of the Season

Week 15: @ Seahawks - Sun 12/15 · 7:20 PM CST

Week 16: Saints - Mon 12/23 · 7:15 PM CST

Week 17: @ Vikings - Sun 12/29 · 12:00 PM CST

Week 18: Da Bears - TBD

If the Pack is healthy (let us pray...), here's where the stretch run to the playoffs and Super Bowl gains steam. Given the opponents and being able to finish at home, we see the Packers going 3-1 over this span of games.

Summary


Looking back at our predictions, we have the Packers going no worse than 11-6. (Many projections we've seen have the Pack going 10-7, 11-6, or 12-5.) It will likely come down to the Pack and the Lions for the NFC North Division title. We'll worry about the playoff scenarios much, much later on. Lot of ball game left, as the saying goes.


As always, GO PACK GO!!!